ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explains the changes that are transforming the Australian labour force as part-time work surges and drives a sustained increase in under-employment

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

Although total Australian unemployment or under-employment was virtually unchanged in March, the combined figure has averaged over 3 million (19.3% of the workforce) for the last six months, up from 2.86 million (18.8%) for the previous six months. Importantly, there has been a re-alignment in the employment markets in recent months with the increase in overall labour under-utilisation driven by a sustained rise in under-employment which is directly correlated to surging part-time employment. In March, part-time employment increased by 295,000 (up 6.1% on a month ago) to a new record high of 5,164,000. In contrast, full-time employment decreased by 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000. This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year) while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created). As part-time employment increases it makes sense we see a sustained rise in under-employment – people who are working part-time but would like to work more hours or work full-time. These results indicate the underlying weakness in the economy with under-employment now over 1.5 million for six months in a row – this has never happened before, even during the recent pandemic – "another reason" why the Reserve Bank should consider reducing interest rates.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-24

In March 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 78,000 to 1,358,000 (down 0.5% to 8.7% of the workforce) as employment reached an all-time high of over 14.2 million. However, the composition of the workforce changed – part-time employment surged 295,000 (up 6.1%) to 5,164,000 (a new record high). Unfortunately, there was a substantial decrease in full-time employment, down 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000 as the composition of the employment market changed significantly. The rise in part-time employment was correlated to the increase in under-employment, up 75,000 to 1,576,000 (10.1%, up 0.5%). In total a massive 2.93 million Australians (18.8%, unchanged) were unemployed or under-employed in March. This trend of the increasing casualisation of the workforce is evident when comparing the latest employment figures for March with a year ago. Since March 2023 part-time employment has surged by 580,000 (84% of jobs created over the last year), while full-time employment has increased by only 113,000 (16% of jobs created).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.8 as Australians enjoy Easter holiday weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Apr-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.8 in the week to 31 March. However, the index has now spent a record 61 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.6 points above the same week a year ago (78.2), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia and virtually unchanged in Western Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unit values outpace houses in half of suburbs

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 3-Apr-24

Data from CoreLogic shows that growth in apartment prices outpaced detached homes in 633 out of 1,168 suburbs across Australia in the March quarter. This includes 77 per cent of Brisbane suburbs, 54 per cent of suburbs in Sydney and 50 per cent of Melbourne suburbs. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the outperformance of apartments could be sustained in the near- to medium-term, due to factors such as housing affordability and supply constraints. Buyer’s agent Amanda Gould says high interest rates are prompting some clients to opt for an apartment rather than a detached dwelling.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 83.1 in late March in the week the RBA left interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 83.1 in the week to 24 March. However, the index has now spent a record 60 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.5 points above the same week a year ago (76.6), and virtually identical to the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Victoria, down in Western Australia, and virtually unchanged in Queensland and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in late March are at 5.1% – up slightly from the month of February (5.0%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Mar-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of March 18-24. This figure is in line with the average over the last 15 weeks of surveying since early December – also of 5.1% – and up slightly from the month of February. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for February 2024 shows the measure at 5.0% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on January (5.1%). The figure of 5.0% for the month of February was the lowest monthly inflation figure since January 2022 (4.9%). Looking back over the last few months, since mid-December 2023 weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8% to 5.3%. After February ended, Inflation Expectations dipped in early March, but have now recovered and have moved higher in late March. A likely driver of this week’s increase in Inflation Expectations is the recent strength in the retail price of petrol which is now over $2 per litre. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 5,998 Australians aged 14+ in February 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mine prospecting booms as explorers look past China dip

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Original article by Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 27-Mar-24

Data from advisory firm BDO Australias shows that resources companies in the pre-revenue stage spent a total of $1.01bn on exploration in the December quarter. This was the highest level of exploration expenditure in the final three months of a calendar year in the last decade. Meanwhile, exploration companies raised a total of $2.68bn from investors during the quarter, which is 32 per cent higher than the previous three months.

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BDO AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases in February; but under-employment drops to lowest since September 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

In February 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,436,000 (9.2% of the workforce) and an additional 1,501,000 (9.6%) were under-employed. In total, 2.94 million Australians (18.8%) were unemployed or under-employed in February. Although unemployment and under-employment remain high, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 711,000 to 14,228,000. This is the first month in which total employment has exceeded 14.2 million. Employment increased by 78,000 in February; full-time employment drove the increase (up 154,000 to a new record high of 9,359,000), while part-time employment dropped 76,000 to 4,869,000. The workforce in February was 15,664,000 (up 132,000 from January, and up 626,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for January, but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%. The February Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross-section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 81.7 in mid-March before final pre-Budget meeting of RBA

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 81.7 in the week to 17 March. However, the index has now spent a record 59 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is again 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (76.5), but 1.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1 ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.2pts to 82.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.2 points to 82.2 in the week to 10 March. However, the index has now spent a record 58 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (77.0), but 1 point below the 2024 weekly average of 83.2. Now 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ