ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

More at risk of mortgage stress as rate rises take toll

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Original article by Paulina Duran
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 28-Feb-24

Data from Roy Morgan shows that a record 1.6 million Australians were ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to January. The Roy Morgan report shows that an additional 802,000 people have had to spend up to 45 per cent of their after-tax household income on their mortgage repayments since the Reserve Bank began raising the cash rate, putting them at risk of mortgage stress. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says another 29,000 home-loan borrowers would be at risk by April if the RBA increases the cash rate in March. Separate data shows that prime mortgage arrears among publicly securitised loans rose by 0.5 per cent to 0.97 per cent in the December quarter; Erin Kitson of S&P Global Ratings expects arrears rates to peak above one per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 83.2 in late February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.2 in the week to 25 February; the index has now spent a record 56 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 3.2 points above the same week a year ago (80.0), but 0.4 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.6. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria and Western Australia, down in Queensland and South Australia, and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 2.1pts to 93.2 in January – now at its highest since August 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-24

In January 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.2 (up 2.1pts since December). This was the second consecutive monthly increase in Business Confidence, and the first time the index has increased for two straight months since early last year. However, despite the increase, Business Confidence has now spent a record 12 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100; this is the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index, which dates back to 2010. Business Confidence is also now 18pts below the long-term average of 111.2, and down 3.2pts since January 2023. Businesses remain concerned about the performance of the Australian economy, with 59.5% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 56.7% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.0% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.3% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for January are based on 1,609 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.8 in mid-February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.8 in the week to 18 February; it has now spent a record 55 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.4 points above the same week a year ago (80.4), but 0.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.6. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria, WA and SA – the opposite result compared to a week ago. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment jumps to two-year high

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 16-Feb-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s official unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in January, up from 3.9 per cent in December. The economy added just 500 jobs in January, and Bjorn Jarvis from the ABS says seasonal factors may have contributed to the larger-than-expected increase in the jobless rate. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although the labour market has been weakening, it remains very strong. Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya in turn says the Reserve Bank is now likely to bring forward the first interest rate cut to around August rather than November.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australian unemployment virtually unchanged in January but overall unemployment and under-employment at 3 million (19.3% of workforce)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Feb-24

In January 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,382,000 (8.9% of the workforce), and an additional 1,618,000 (10.4%) were under-employed. In total, 3 million Australians (19.3%) were unemployed or under-employed in January. Although unemployment and under-employment remain high, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 732,000 to 14,150,000. This is the largest annual increase in employment since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, employment dropped 25,000 to 14,150,000 in January. Full-time employment drove the decrease (down 37,000 to 9,205,000), while part-time employment increased 12,000 to 4,945,000. The workforce in January was 15,532,000 (down 7,000 from December, but up 507,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.9% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.9% for December, but is comparable with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%. The January Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.2pts to 82.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.2pts to 82.6 in the week to 11 February; it has now spent a record 54 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.5 points above the same week a year ago (78.1), but 1.2 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.8. Analysis by housing status shows the biggest drop this week (down 5.2pts) was for people who own their own home. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in both New South Wales and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Meanwhile, 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers 1.3pts to 83.8 after Albanese Government reveals substance of Stage 3 tax cut changes

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 83.8 in the week to 4 February, but it has now spent a record 53 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 0.2pts above the same week a year ago (86.6), and 5.8 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in Victoria. Now 21% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the equal highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 30% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Meanwhile, 23% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in late January are at 5.1% – down by 0.2% points from the month of December (5.3%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of January 22-28, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.1% and 0.2% points lower than the month of December. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for December shows the measure at 5.3% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on November (5.4%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for November has raised hopes that the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the December quarterly and monthly inflation readings later this week, which will inform the RBA’s actions at their first meeting of the year next week. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,028 Australians aged 14+ in December 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.9pts to 82.5 after Albanese Government breaks promise and vows changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.9pts to 82.5 in the week to 28 January, and it has now spent a record 52 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 4.3pts below the same week a year ago (86.8), but still 4.5 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. There were mixed results around the States, with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia but up in Victoria. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 32% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ