ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 5.3pts to 91.1 in December – after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

In December 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 91.1 (up 5.3pts since November). The rebound in Business Confidence came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% in its final meeting for the year in early December. Business Confidence has now spent a record eleven consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 20.1pts below the long-term average of 111.2. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 59% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.8% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.4% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.4% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,497 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 84.4 in the third week of 2024

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 84.4 in the week to 21 January, and it has now spent a record 51 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 1.5pts below the same week a year ago (85.9), but 6.4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. There were mixed results around the States, with Consumer Confidence up in Western Australia and South Australia but down in New South Wales and Queensland and unchanged elsewhere. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (down 4% points) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 31% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Only 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian employment increased to over 14.1 million for the first time in December, but under-employment hit a record high of 1.65 million

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are employed rose by 165,000 to a new record high of 14,175,000 in December 2023. The increase was due to a rise in full-time employment (up 234,000 to a new record high of 9,242,000), while part-time employment was down 69,000 to 4,933,000. Despite surging employment – up by 607,000 compared to a year ago – some 3.02 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in December (down 0.2% from November). Some 1,364,000 Australians were unemployed in December (8.8% of the workforce), a decrease of 141,000 from November (down 0.9%). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.65 million Australians (up 119,000) were under-employed in December. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.8% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.9% for November, but is comparable with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 84.4 in second week of 2024

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 84.4 in the week to 14 January, and it has now spent a record 50 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 3.3pts below the same week a year ago (87.7), but 6.4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, but up in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 31% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Only 11% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the equal highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Meanwhile, 24% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3pts to 84.8 to start 2024 with the traditional New Year bounce

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3pts to 84.8 in the first week of 2024, taking the index to its highest since early February 2023. Consumer Confidence started the year 8.4pts higher than a month ago and is now nearly 7pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 47 straight weeks below the mark of 85, and it is 2.6pts lower than the same week a year ago (87.4). Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022), while 32% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Meanwhile, 25% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 46% (down 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fall in detached housing approvals puts Labor’s 1.2 million target at risk: economists

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Olivia Ireland
The Age – Page: Online : 10-Jan-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that dwelling approvals rose by 1.6 per cent to 14,529 in November. However, building approvals for detached houses fell 1.7 per cent month-on-month, to 8,506. The Housing Industry Association’s chief economist Tim Reardon expects approvals for detached homes to keep falling during the first half of 2024; he adds that this will make it hard to achieve the federal government’s revised target of building 1.2 million new homes over five years. This equates to 240,000 per year, but Master Builders Australia expects about 170,000 new home to be built in 2023-24.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1pt to 81.8 to end 2023 at its highest since early February 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1pt to 81.8 in the week to 17 December, a second straight weekly increase to end the year at its highest since early February 2023. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 46 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence has ended 2023 only 0.7pts below the same week a year ago (82.5), and nearly 4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. The 2023 weekly average of 78.0 is a record low for the index, below the previous record low of 82.6 in 1990. Now 20% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 33% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022, just after the RBA first raised interest rates), while 33% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2023). Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in mid-December are at 5.3% – slightly down from the month of November (5.4%)

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% for the week of December 11-17, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.3% and 0.1% points lower than the month of November. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for October prompted the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at their final meeting for the year in early December. A leading factor driving the decrease in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks has been the decline in the retail petrol price. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,982 Australians aged 14+ in November 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobless rate fears halt RBA rate increases

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for December show that it considered whether to increase the cash rate for a second successive month. The board noted the possibility that the unemployment rate could rise higher than originally anticipated due to the central bank’s push to rein in the inflation rate. The board reiterated that it will do whatever is necessary to return inflation to its target range within a reasonable timeframe. Gareth Aird from the Commonwealth Bank expects three official interest rate cuts in 2024, beginning in September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Bankers strike $5b in M&A deals

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Aaron Weinman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 14 : 19-Dec-23

Australian investors benefited from a pre-Christmas spike in mergers and acquisitions activity on Monday. Share registry administer Link Group endorsed a $1.2bn buyout offer from Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and building materials group Adbri advised that it has received a $2.1bn takeover bid from Barro Group and CRH. Dental group Pacific Smiles has in turn been the subject of a $233m takeover offer from Genesis Capital. Ian Holmes from E&P suggest that the end-of-year surge in takeovers may be driven by a desire for suitors to avoid dragging out a bid into the new year.

CORPORATES
LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LNK, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, ADBRI LIMITED – ASX ABC, BARRO GROUP PTY LTD, CRH PLC, PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED – ASX PSQ, GENESIS CAPITAL, E&P FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX EP1