ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3pts to 84.8 to start 2024 with the traditional New Year bounce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3pts to 84.8 in the first week of 2024, taking the index to its highest since early February 2023. Consumer Confidence started the year 8.4pts higher than a month ago and is now nearly 7pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 47 straight weeks below the mark of 85, and it is 2.6pts lower than the same week a year ago (87.4). Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022), while 32% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Meanwhile, 25% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 46% (down 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fall in detached housing approvals puts Labor’s 1.2 million target at risk: economists

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Original article by Olivia Ireland
The Age – Page: Online : 10-Jan-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that dwelling approvals rose by 1.6 per cent to 14,529 in November. However, building approvals for detached houses fell 1.7 per cent month-on-month, to 8,506. The Housing Industry Association’s chief economist Tim Reardon expects approvals for detached homes to keep falling during the first half of 2024; he adds that this will make it hard to achieve the federal government’s revised target of building 1.2 million new homes over five years. This equates to 240,000 per year, but Master Builders Australia expects about 170,000 new home to be built in 2023-24.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1pt to 81.8 to end 2023 at its highest since early February 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1pt to 81.8 in the week to 17 December, a second straight weekly increase to end the year at its highest since early February 2023. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 46 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence has ended 2023 only 0.7pts below the same week a year ago (82.5), and nearly 4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. The 2023 weekly average of 78.0 is a record low for the index, below the previous record low of 82.6 in 1990. Now 20% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 51% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 33% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 10% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022, just after the RBA first raised interest rates), while 33% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since February 2023). Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in mid-December are at 5.3% – slightly down from the month of November (5.4%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% for the week of December 11-17, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.3% and 0.1% points lower than the month of November. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for October prompted the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at their final meeting for the year in early December. A leading factor driving the decrease in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks has been the decline in the retail petrol price. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,982 Australians aged 14+ in November 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobless rate fears halt RBA rate increases

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Dec-23

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s board meeting for December show that it considered whether to increase the cash rate for a second successive month. The board noted the possibility that the unemployment rate could rise higher than originally anticipated due to the central bank’s push to rein in the inflation rate. The board reiterated that it will do whatever is necessary to return inflation to its target range within a reasonable timeframe. Gareth Aird from the Commonwealth Bank expects three official interest rate cuts in 2024, beginning in September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Bankers strike $5b in M&A deals

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Original article by Aaron Weinman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 14 : 19-Dec-23

Australian investors benefited from a pre-Christmas spike in mergers and acquisitions activity on Monday. Share registry administer Link Group endorsed a $1.2bn buyout offer from Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and building materials group Adbri advised that it has received a $2.1bn takeover bid from Barro Group and CRH. Dental group Pacific Smiles has in turn been the subject of a $233m takeover offer from Genesis Capital. Ian Holmes from E&P suggest that the end-of-year surge in takeovers may be driven by a desire for suitors to avoid dragging out a bid into the new year.

CORPORATES
LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LNK, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, ADBRI LIMITED – ASX ABC, BARRO GROUP PTY LTD, CRH PLC, PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED – ASX PSQ, GENESIS CAPITAL, E&P FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX EP1

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.4pts to 80.8 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged – the highest for over ten months since early February 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.4pts to 80.8 in the week to 10 December, after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at its final board meeting for the year. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 45 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.1pts below the same week a year ago (82.9), but nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average of 77.8. Now 22% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2023), while 51% (down 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022, just after the RBA first raised interest rates), while 36% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian employment increased to over 14 million for the first time in November, but still over 3 million unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Dec-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 37,000 to 1,505,000 (9.7% of the workforce, down 0.2%) in November. Under-employment fell by 45,000 to 1,532,000 (9.9% of the workforce). A total of 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, employment rose by 51,000 to a new record high of 14,010,000 in November. The increase was due to a rise in part-time employment (up 52,000 to a new record high of 5,002,000), while full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 9,008,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% for November is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for October, but it is almost identical to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Micro-taxes stifle productivity

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 13-Dec-23

The Productivity Commission has released a research paper which raises concern about the growing use of industry levies by Australia’s federal and state governments. The Commission has found that governments are using these levies to raise $11bn in revenue a year ‘by stealth’. The agricultural sector was initially the focus of industry levies, but the Commission notes that the sector now accounts for just $600m of this revenue. Deputy chairman Alex Robson contends that taking action to rein in the use of industry levies could help to boost the nation’s productivity.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Fall in coal, gas exports to crimp growth

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 6-Dec-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation recorded a current account deficit of $0.2bn for the September quarter. It is just the second quarterly current account deficit since 2019, and follows a sharp fall in coal and LNG export volumes. The ABS estimates that a downturn in net exports will reduce GDP growth for the September quarter by about 0.6 percentage points. Annual growth is tipped to have fallen to 1.9 per cent; this would be the first time this has been below two per cent since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. The quarterly national accounts data will be released on Wednesday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS