ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations in mid-December are at 5.3% – slightly down from the month of November (5.4%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Dec-23

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% for the week of December 11-17, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.3% and 0.1% points lower than the month of November. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for November shows the measure at 5.4% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on October (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for October prompted the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at their final meeting for the year in early December. A leading factor driving the decrease in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks has been the decline in the retail petrol price. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,982 Australians aged 14+ in November 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Bankers strike $5b in M&A deals

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Original article by Aaron Weinman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 14 : 19-Dec-23

Australian investors benefited from a pre-Christmas spike in mergers and acquisitions activity on Monday. Share registry administer Link Group endorsed a $1.2bn buyout offer from Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and building materials group Adbri advised that it has received a $2.1bn takeover bid from Barro Group and CRH. Dental group Pacific Smiles has in turn been the subject of a $233m takeover offer from Genesis Capital. Ian Holmes from E&P suggest that the end-of-year surge in takeovers may be driven by a desire for suitors to avoid dragging out a bid into the new year.

CORPORATES
LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LNK, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, ADBRI LIMITED – ASX ABC, BARRO GROUP PTY LTD, CRH PLC, PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED – ASX PSQ, GENESIS CAPITAL, E&P FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX EP1

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.4pts to 80.8 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged – the highest for over ten months since early February 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4.4pts to 80.8 in the week to 10 December, after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at its final board meeting for the year. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 45 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.1pts below the same week a year ago (82.9), but nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average of 77.8. Now 22% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2023), while 51% (down 6ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022, just after the RBA first raised interest rates), while 36% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian employment increased to over 14 million for the first time in November, but still over 3 million unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Dec-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 37,000 to 1,505,000 (9.7% of the workforce, down 0.2%) in November. Under-employment fell by 45,000 to 1,532,000 (9.9% of the workforce). A total of 3.04 million Australians (19.6% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in November. Meanwhile, employment rose by 51,000 to a new record high of 14,010,000 in November. The increase was due to a rise in part-time employment (up 52,000 to a new record high of 5,002,000), while full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 9,008,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% for November is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for October, but it is almost identical to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Micro-taxes stifle productivity

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 13-Dec-23

The Productivity Commission has released a research paper which raises concern about the growing use of industry levies by Australia’s federal and state governments. The Commission has found that governments are using these levies to raise $11bn in revenue a year ‘by stealth’. The agricultural sector was initially the focus of industry levies, but the Commission notes that the sector now accounts for just $600m of this revenue. Deputy chairman Alex Robson contends that taking action to rein in the use of industry levies could help to boost the nation’s productivity.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Fall in coal, gas exports to crimp growth

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 6-Dec-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation recorded a current account deficit of $0.2bn for the September quarter. It is just the second quarterly current account deficit since 2019, and follows a sharp fall in coal and LNG export volumes. The ABS estimates that a downturn in net exports will reduce GDP growth for the September quarter by about 0.6 percentage points. Annual growth is tipped to have fallen to 1.9 per cent; this would be the first time this has been below two per cent since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. The quarterly national accounts data will be released on Wednesday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 76.4 this week before the RBA met for the final time in 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 76.4 in the week to 3 December, but it has now spent a record 44 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3pts below the same week a year ago (82.7), and over 1 point below the 2023 weekly average of 77.8. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but down in New South Wales and Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 57% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Looking forward, 32% (up 5ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 4.6pts to 85.8 in November – after the RBA raised interest rates again to 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

In November 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 85.8 (down 4.6pts since October). Business Confidence has now spent a record 10 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 25.5pts below the long-term average of 111.3. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 61% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 37.1% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 27.0% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.1% points and still the only index in positive territory. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,519 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA poised to deliver pre-Christmas cheer to hard-pressed borrowers

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 5-Dec-23

Financial markets and economists generally expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. The central bank has increased official interest rates by 1.25 percentage points during calendar 2023, and an end-of-year pause will be welcomed by Australians with home loans. Meanwhile, data from the ANZ Bank and Indeed suggests that the series of rate rises is starting to impact on the labour market, with the number of job advertisements falling by 4.6 per cent in November. Separate data supports the view that inflation is easing; the average price of unleaded petrol recently fell to its lowest level since August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, INDEED INCORPORATED

Chalmers hints at cost-of-living relief

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Dec-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says households should not expect significant cost-of-living relief in the federal government’s mid-year update. However, he adds that the government may be open to further measures in its May 2024 Budget, depending on factors such as economic conditions at that time. Meanwhile, the national accounts data for the September quarter will be released on Wednesday; Chalmers says the data is likely to reflect the impact on economic growth of 13 interest rate rises since May 2022. The general consensus of economists is that the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY