ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 76.4 this week before the RBA met for the final time in 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 76.4 in the week to 3 December, but it has now spent a record 44 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.3pts below the same week a year ago (82.7), and over 1 point below the 2023 weekly average of 77.8. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but down in New South Wales and Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 57% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Looking forward, 32% (up 5ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 8% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 4.6pts to 85.8 in November – after the RBA raised interest rates again to 4.35%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

In November 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 85.8 (down 4.6pts since October). Business Confidence has now spent a record 10 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 25.5pts below the long-term average of 111.3. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 61% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 37.1% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 27.0% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.1% points and still the only index in positive territory. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,519 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA poised to deliver pre-Christmas cheer to hard-pressed borrowers

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 5-Dec-23

Financial markets and economists generally expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday. The central bank has increased official interest rates by 1.25 percentage points during calendar 2023, and an end-of-year pause will be welcomed by Australians with home loans. Meanwhile, data from the ANZ Bank and Indeed suggests that the series of rate rises is starting to impact on the labour market, with the number of job advertisements falling by 4.6 per cent in November. Separate data supports the view that inflation is easing; the average price of unleaded petrol recently fell to its lowest level since August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, INDEED INCORPORATED

Chalmers hints at cost-of-living relief

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Dec-23

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says households should not expect significant cost-of-living relief in the federal government’s mid-year update. However, he adds that the government may be open to further measures in its May 2024 Budget, depending on factors such as economic conditions at that time. Meanwhile, the national accounts data for the September quarter will be released on Wednesday; Chalmers says the data is likely to reflect the impact on economic growth of 13 interest rate rises since May 2022. The general consensus of economists is that the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2pts to 76.7 this week as Black Friday/Cyber Monday drives buying intentions up to their highest for ten months – since January 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Nov-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2pts to 76.7 in the week to 26 November; however, it has now spent a record 43 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 6.9pts below the same week a year ago (83.1), and clearly below the 2023 weekly average of 77.9. Consumer Confidence was up significantly in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria and South Australia, and virtually unchanged in Western Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Looking forward, 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early days of the pandemic in April 2020), while 40% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. (This week’s figure is the lowest net rating for this question since August 1989). Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 49% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Black Friday sales hit record high

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 29-Nov-23

The Australian Retailers Association recently forecast that consumers will spend $6.36bn across the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend. Data showing that retail sales fell by a seasonally 0.2 per cent in October suggests that many consumers had delayed their spending in order to take advantage of the increasingly popular four-day sales event. Retailers are also believed to have offered larger Black Friday/Cyber Monday discounts of up to 30 per cent, compared with about 26 per cent in 2022. Meanwhile, the National Retail Association’s director Rob Godwin says Christmas sales will be a "make-or-break" period for many retailers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 74.7 this week as buying intentions improve ahead of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 74.7 in the week to 19 November; however, it has now spent a record 42 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 6.9pts below the same week a year ago (81.6), and clearly below the 2023 weekly average of 77.9. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, virtually unchanged in New South Wales, and down slightly in Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in mid-November are at 5.6% – significantly higher than the month of October (5.3%)

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Nov-23

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.6% for the week of November 13-20; this is up 0.1% points from a week ago and 0.3% points higher than the month of October. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for October shows the measure at 5.3% for the month, an increase of 0.1% points on September (5.2%). In the month of October 2023 Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, and this has continued to increase since. The increase in Inflation Expectations in the month of October is important given that this is the first increase in the monthly indicator since June. The latest ABS monthly CPI estimate for September also showed an increase at 5.6%, up 0.7% points from 4.9% in the year to July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 7,495 Australians aged 14+ in October 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 3.5pts to 74.3 – after the RBA raises interest rates to 12-year high of 4.35%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.5pts to 74.3 in the week to 12 November. Consumer Confidence is at its lowest since mid-July 2023 and has spent a record 41 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 6.5pts below the same week a year ago (80.8), and it is now clearly below the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly against the trend in Western Australia – essentially a reverse of last week. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 3.3pts to 90.4 in October – before the RBA raised interest rates again to 4.35%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-23

In October 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.4 (up 3.3pts since September). Business Confidence has now spent a record nine consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back over a decade to 2010. Business Confidence is now 21.1pts below the long-term average of 111. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 56.5% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year, while 58.2% expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year, with 40.1% saying they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 29.2% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.9% points and the only index in positive territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED