ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

McKibbin warns of 5pc rates

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 9-Nov-23

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock noted on Tuesday that progress on reducing inflation has been slower than expected, which contributed to the RBA’s decision to increase official interest rates to 4.35 per cent. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the rate increase was in the interest of the fight against inflation, while shadow finance minister Jane Hume contends that the federal government’s increase in spending since taking office in May 2022 is making the RBA’s job harder. Meanwhile, former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin argues that increases in taxes or reductions in other government spending programs are necessary to reduce demand in the economy; he adds that the RBA may need to increase the cash rate to five per cent in order to rein in the inflation rate.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Over 3 million Australians were either unemployed (1.54 million) or under-employed (1.58 million) in October – highest for three years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Nov-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 22,000 to 1,542,000 (9.9% of the workforce, down 0.3%) in October. However, underemployment rose by 248,000 to a record high of 1,577,000 (10.2% of the workforce). A total of 3.12 million Australians (20.1% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in October, the highest figure since October 2020. Meanwhile, employment rose by 204,000 to a new record high of 13,959,000 in October. The increase was due to a rise in both full-time employment (up 46,000 to 9,009,000) and a large increase in part-time employment (up 158,000 to a new record high of 4,950,000). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.9% for October is almost triple the ABS estimate of 3.6% for September, but it is almost identical to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.8pts to 77.8 – with more people saying it’s a good time to buy major household items

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.8pts to 77.8 in the week to 5 November; however, it has now spent a record 40 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 0.9pts below the same week a year ago (78.7), and it is just above the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but down slightly in Western Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Total debt pile triples in 10 years

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Nov-23

Data from the Parliamentary Budget Office shows that Australia’s net debt has risen to $31,400 per capita over the last decade. Net debt per capita totalled just $8,600 at the federal level in 2013-14, but this is forecast to reach $21,300 in 2023-24. Across the states and territories, net debt per person was just $2,000 in 2013-14, and is slated to reach $11,200 in the current financial year. Victoria has recorded the biggest increase in net debt per capita among the states over the last decade, ahead of NSW and South Australia.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.2pts to 75.0 – lowest since early August 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Nov-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2pts to 75.0 in the week to 29 October; it has now spent 39 straight weeks below the mark of 85 – equalling the longest streak at this level set in 1990-91. Consumer Confidence is 4.9pts below the same week a year ago (79.9), and it is now clearly below the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, but increased slightly in Queensland. Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 56% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ASX-listed zombie companies on the rise

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Original article by Chris Herde
The Australian – Page: 17 : 30-Oct-23

Gayle Dickerson of KPMG expects the number of so-called ‘zombie companies’ on the Australian sharemarket to keep rising in 2024. KPMG’s analysis shows that there were just 22 such companies in March 2022; this has consistently risen since then, and totalled 127 in the last six months. KPMG classifies a company as a ‘zombie’ if it shows signs of the firm’s financial stress indicators for three or more consecutive quarters. Dickerson says the Australian Taxation Office’s aggressive debt collection tactics have contributed to the rise of zombie companies.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Migrant intake has already hit record 500k

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Original article by Michael Read, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 25-Oct-23

The Treasury has previously forecast that net overseas migration totalled 400,000 in the year to June. However, former Immigration Department official Abul Rizvi estimates that net overseas migration topped 470,000 in the year to June; he adds that the migrant intake probably reached 500,000 in the year to September. Rizvi also believes that the Treasury’s forecast that the annual migrant intake will fall to 315,000 by June 2024 is unlikely to be realised. Brendan Coates from the Grattan Institute says Australia’s record migrant intake will increase housing demand and put upward pressure on the inflation rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, GRATTAN INSTITUTE

Inflation Expectations in mid-October at 5.7% – significantly higher than in September (5.2%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.7% for the week of October 16-22 – up 0.4% points from a week ago. This is the highest weekly Inflation Expectations have been since the first week of July. However, a look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows that the measure was down 0.2% points to 5.2%. In the month of September, Australians expected inflation of 5.2% annually over the next two years. This decline in Inflation Expectations in the month of September is important given that the monthly ABS CPI estimate for September is set to be released on Wednesday. The ABS monthly CPI estimate for August was 5.2%, up from 4.9% in the year to July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 6,025 Australians aged 14+ in September 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 78.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 78.2 in the week to 22 October; it has now spent 38 straight weeks below the mark of 85, the longest streak at this level since 1990-91. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 7.6pts to 87.1 in September – lowest for three years since September 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-23

In September 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 87.1 (down 7.6pts since August). This is the lowest Business Confidence since September 2020, when Victoria was in an extended lockdown and New South Wales was enduring significant COVID-19 outbreaks. The Business Confidence survey was conducted after the RBA left interest rates unchanged for a third straight month in September at 4.1%. However, there were renewed concerns about inflation during September, with average retail petrol prices hitting a record high. Business Confidence has now spent eight consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 55.2% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 63.1% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 38.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 30.5% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 7.8% points and the only index in positive territory. The pressure that high inflation and rising interest rates are placing on consumer spending habits is clear when one considers the Retail industry has the lowest Business Confidence of all at only 43.6, and more than halving from a year ago, down 44.1pts (-50.3%) from a year ago. This is an all-time record low reading of Business Confidence for the Retail industry heading into the most important retailing period of the year. The just released ARA-Roy Morgan pre-Christmas forecasts predict total pre-Christmas retail sales of $78 billion (up 0.4% on a year ago), and a seasonally adjusted figure of $66.8 billion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED