ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.2pts to 81.0 in early March – lowest since early December 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.2pts to 81.0 in the week to 3 March, the lowest the indicator has been all year; it has now spent a record 57 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 1.1 points above the same week a year ago (79.9), but 2.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.3. Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in the largest states of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and down in WA and SA. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Imports fall as households cut back

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s current account surplus rose to $11.8bn in the December quarter, compared with just $1.3bn in the three months to September. Import volumes fell by 2.8 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in the December quarter, with import volumes of consumer goods down 5.4 per cent. Export volumes were down 0.4 per cent, although higher iron ore and coal prices boosted overall export prices by 3.1 per cent. Meanwhile, economists expect the national accounts data to be released on Wednesday will show that GDP growth was 0.2 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Risk to GDP growth as firms destock

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Mar-24

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that inventories fell by 1.7 per cent in the December quarter as private sector companies destocked, in part due to weaker demand. The surprise fall in inventories has increased speculation that GDP figures for the December quarter, which are to be released on Wednesday, will show a contraction, which would be the first since the September 2021 quarter. Asked about the prospect of GDP growth having been negative in the December quarter, Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that Britain and Japan had recently fallen into a technical recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

New house pipeline at near-12 year low

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 5-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that approvals for new detached homes fell by 9.6 per cent month-on-month in January, to the lowest level since mid-2012. Approvals for apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes fell by 22 per cent. Tamawood CEO Robert Lynch says the house construction market has most likely reached its bottom; however, he cautions that factors such as high interest rates mean that a rebound may take some time. He adds that sales activity in the more affordable segment of the housing market – in which Tamawood specialises – is likely to recover first.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, TAMAWOOD LIMITED – ASX TWD

Inflation Expectations in late February are at 5.1% – unchanged from the month of January (5.1%)

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of February 19-25, which is in line with the average so far this year of 5.1% and unchanged from the month of January. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for January 2024 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, a decrease of 0.2% points on December 2023 (5.3%). In the month of January 2024 Australians expected inflation of 5.1% annually over the next two years – the lowest monthly figure for Inflation Expectations s since February 2022. Since January ended, Inflation Expectations have stabilised within a narrow band over the last few weeks. Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official inflation measure. The latest ABS monthly CPI estimate for December 2023 of 3.4% is down 0.9% from November, and down 2.2% points since September (5.6%). The sharp drop in the official inflation readings has raised hopes the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the January monthly inflation readings later this week which will inform the RBA’s actions at its next meeting in mid-March. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,032 Australians aged 14+ in January 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

More at risk of mortgage stress as rate rises take toll

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Paulina Duran
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 28-Feb-24

Data from Roy Morgan shows that a record 1.6 million Australians were ‘at risk’ of mortgage stress in the three months to January. The Roy Morgan report shows that an additional 802,000 people have had to spend up to 45 per cent of their after-tax household income on their mortgage repayments since the Reserve Bank began raising the cash rate, putting them at risk of mortgage stress. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says another 29,000 home-loan borrowers would be at risk by April if the RBA increases the cash rate in March. Separate data shows that prime mortgage arrears among publicly securitised loans rose by 0.5 per cent to 0.97 per cent in the December quarter; Erin Kitson of S&P Global Ratings expects arrears rates to peak above one per cent.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 83.2 in late February

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.2 in the week to 25 February; the index has now spent a record 56 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 3.2 points above the same week a year ago (80.0), but 0.4 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.6. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria and Western Australia, down in Queensland and South Australia, and virtually unchanged in New South Wales. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 2.1pts to 93.2 in January – now at its highest since August 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-24

In January 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.2 (up 2.1pts since December). This was the second consecutive monthly increase in Business Confidence, and the first time the index has increased for two straight months since early last year. However, despite the increase, Business Confidence has now spent a record 12 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100; this is the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index, which dates back to 2010. Business Confidence is also now 18pts below the long-term average of 111.2, and down 3.2pts since January 2023. Businesses remain concerned about the performance of the Australian economy, with 59.5% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 56.7% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.0% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.3% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for January are based on 1,609 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.8 in mid-February

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.8 in the week to 18 February; it has now spent a record 55 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.4 points above the same week a year ago (80.4), but 0.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.6. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria, WA and SA – the opposite result compared to a week ago. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment jumps to two-year high

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 5 : 16-Feb-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s official unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in January, up from 3.9 per cent in December. The economy added just 500 jobs in January, and Bjorn Jarvis from the ABS says seasonal factors may have contributed to the larger-than-expected increase in the jobless rate. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although the labour market has been weakening, it remains very strong. Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya in turn says the Reserve Bank is now likely to bring forward the first interest rate cut to around August rather than November.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA