ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian unemployment virtually unchanged in January but overall unemployment and under-employment at 3 million (19.3% of workforce)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Feb-24

In January 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,382,000 (8.9% of the workforce), and an additional 1,618,000 (10.4%) were under-employed. In total, 3 million Australians (19.3%) were unemployed or under-employed in January. Although unemployment and under-employment remain high, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 732,000 to 14,150,000. This is the largest annual increase in employment since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, employment dropped 25,000 to 14,150,000 in January. Full-time employment drove the decrease (down 37,000 to 9,205,000), while part-time employment increased 12,000 to 4,945,000. The workforce in January was 15,532,000 (down 7,000 from December, but up 507,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.9% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.9% for December, but is comparable with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%. The January Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.2pts to 82.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.2pts to 82.6 in the week to 11 February; it has now spent a record 54 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.5 points above the same week a year ago (78.1), but 1.2 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.8. Analysis by housing status shows the biggest drop this week (down 5.2pts) was for people who own their own home. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in both New South Wales and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 29% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Meanwhile, 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers 1.3pts to 83.8 after Albanese Government reveals substance of Stage 3 tax cut changes

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Feb-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 83.8 in the week to 4 February, but it has now spent a record 53 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 0.2pts above the same week a year ago (86.6), and 5.8 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in Victoria. Now 21% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the equal highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 30% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 2022). Meanwhile, 23% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations in late January are at 5.1% – down by 0.2% points from the month of December (5.3%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of January 22-28, which is in line with the four-week average of 5.1% and 0.2% points lower than the month of December. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for December shows the measure at 5.3% for the month, a decrease of 0.1% points on November (5.4%). Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official ABS inflation measure. The lower-than-expected inflation reading for November has raised hopes that the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the December quarterly and monthly inflation readings later this week, which will inform the RBA’s actions at their first meeting of the year next week. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,028 Australians aged 14+ in December 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.9pts to 82.5 after Albanese Government breaks promise and vows changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.9pts to 82.5 in the week to 28 January, and it has now spent a record 52 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 4.3pts below the same week a year ago (86.8), but still 4.5 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. There were mixed results around the States, with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia but up in Victoria. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 32% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Only 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increased 5.3pts to 91.1 in December – after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

In December 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 91.1 (up 5.3pts since November). The rebound in Business Confidence came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% in its final meeting for the year in early December. Business Confidence has now spent a record eleven consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 20.1pts below the long-term average of 111.2. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 59% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.8% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.4% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.4% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,497 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 84.4 in the third week of 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 84.4 in the week to 21 January, and it has now spent a record 51 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 1.5pts below the same week a year ago (85.9), but 6.4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. There were mixed results around the States, with Consumer Confidence up in Western Australia and South Australia but down in New South Wales and Queensland and unchanged elsewhere. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (down 4% points) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 31% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Only 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian employment increased to over 14.1 million for the first time in December, but under-employment hit a record high of 1.65 million

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are employed rose by 165,000 to a new record high of 14,175,000 in December 2023. The increase was due to a rise in full-time employment (up 234,000 to a new record high of 9,242,000), while part-time employment was down 69,000 to 4,933,000. Despite surging employment – up by 607,000 compared to a year ago – some 3.02 million Australians (19.4% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in December (down 0.2% from November). Some 1,364,000 Australians were unemployed in December (8.8% of the workforce), a decrease of 141,000 from November (down 0.9%). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.65 million Australians (up 119,000) were under-employed in December. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.8% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.9% for November, but is comparable with the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 84.4 in second week of 2024

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 84.4 in the week to 14 January, and it has now spent a record 50 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 3.3pts below the same week a year ago (87.7), but 6.4 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, but up in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since late January 2023), while 31% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Only 11% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the equal highest figure for this indicator since April 2022), while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since late January 2023). Meanwhile, 24% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 47% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3pts to 84.8 to start 2024 with the traditional New Year bounce

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jan-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3pts to 84.8 in the first week of 2024, taking the index to its highest since early February 2023. Consumer Confidence started the year 8.4pts higher than a month ago and is now nearly 7pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 47 straight weeks below the mark of 85, and it is 2.6pts lower than the same week a year ago (87.4). Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 34% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Only 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since May 2022), while 32% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023). Meanwhile, 25% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since January 2023), while 46% (down 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 2023).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ