ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Deal activity dives as rates hit hard

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Original article by David Swan
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 22-Sep-23

Data from Refinitiv shows that mergers and acquisitions involving Australians companies has totalled $US81.3bn so far in 2023, which is 27 per cent lower than at the same time in 2022. Investment banks’ advisory fees for completed M&A deal are 62 per cent lower than the same period in 2022, at $US354m. Underwriting fees for equity and debt capital market transactions have in turn fallen by 16 per cent and nine per cent respectively. Nick Sims from Goldman Sachs Australia expects deal-making activity to pick up for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, in the absence of any macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks.

CORPORATES
REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Inflation Expectations dropped to 5.4% for the month of August – and have now fallen to 4.9% in mid-September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Sep-23

In August 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from July. This is also down 0.2% points from a year ago in August 2022 (5.6%) and in line with the monthly average so far this year of 5.4%. The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are now at 4.9% in mid-September – the lowest weekly Inflation Expectations for 18 months since early February 2022, before Russia invaded Ukraine. The softening in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks suggest that the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its last three board meetings may be the correct decision, but there are still significant pressures in the economy. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,982 Australians aged 14+ in August.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.2pts to 79.8 – highest since late April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Sep-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.2pts to 79.8 in the week to 17 September; despite the increase, it has now spent a record 29 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 6.2pts below the same week a year ago (86.0), and 1.6 pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.2. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, but down slightly in Queensland and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 34% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.1pts to 77.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Sep-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.1pts to 77.6 in the week to 10 September; it has now spent a record 28 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is 8.1pts below the same week a year ago (85.7), and just below the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence down in Victoria and South Australia, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Now 21% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.6pts to 78.7 – highest for four months since late April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Sep-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.6pts to 78.7 in the week to 3 September; despite the small increase, the index has now spent a record 27 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 7.4pts below the same week a year ago (86.1), and it is just above the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.3pts to 78.1 as Consumer Confidence hits a record six months below 80

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Aug-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.3pts to 78.1 in the week to 27 August; however, it has now spent a record 26 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 6.9pts below the same week a year ago (85.0), and it is in line with the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was up in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but down slightly in both Western Australia and South Australia. Driving the improvement in the index this week were positive moves in sentiment related to both personal finances and the fortunes of the Australian economy over the next year.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

First home deposit sizes soar as more parents step up

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Original article by John Collett
The Age – Page: Online : 30-Aug-23

A report from the National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation and the Commonwealth Bank highlights the growing cost of entering the housing market. It shows that average gross household income for first-home buyers with the CBA was about $117,000 in early 2023, while the average purchase price was almost $629,000. Meanwhile, the average deposit for first-home buyers was $159,000; this compares with just $108,400 at the start of 2020. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher says the figures suggest that many people are getting financial help from their parents to buy their first home. This in turn means that people who cannot rely on the so-called ‘bank of mum and dad’ are being locked out of the housing market.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL HOUSING FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CORPORATION – ASX NFI, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.4pts to 75.8 as Australian Dollar hits lowest since November 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Aug-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.4pts to 75.8 in the week to 20 August, and it has now spent a record 25 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 9.8pts below the same week a year ago (85.8), and 2.3pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was down in the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but up slightly in both Western Australia and South Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 29% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Investment in new Australian wind and solar farms stalls amid ‘raft of barriers’, report finds

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Original article by Peter Hannam
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 23-Aug-23

Data from the Clean Energy Council shows that only four proposed renewable energy projects reached financial closure during the June quarter. The four wind and solar projects will have a combined generation capacity of 348 megawatts, while their combined investment value is just $225m; this compares with a rolling 12-month average of $1.3bn. CEC CEO Kane Thornton says the lack of political leadership, planning and foresight over the last decade has resulted in significant barriers to investment in clean energy projects in Australia. He adds that these barriers make Australia less attractive at a time when there are significant clean energy investment opportunities worldwide.

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CLEAN ENERGY COUNCIL LIMITED

July monthly Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 5.6% – but have now dropped to 5.2% in mid-August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Aug-23

In July 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.6% annually over the next two years, unchanged from June. This also matches the Inflation Expectations of four months ago in March 2023, but is down 0.3% points from a year ago in July 2022 (5.9%). Although Inflation Expectations have been stable over the last few months they have fallen during the early weeks of August. The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are now at 5.2% in mid-August, down for two consecutive weeks since late July – the first consecutive weekly drops in the measure since late April. The softening in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks suggest that the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in July and August may be the correct decision; however, there are still significant pressures in the economy. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,968 Australians aged 14+ in July.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS