ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases in September, up 3pts to 101.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-25

In September 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 3pts to 101.6; the increase followed the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut official interest rates by 0.25% in mid-August and the S&P/ASX200 closing at a record high above 9,000 in late August. However, Business Confidence is now 8.3pts below the long-term average of 109.9, although it is 7.3pts higher than in September 2024. Now 33.4% (up 4.9ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 34.6% (down 0.8ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 39.6% (unchanged) of respondents expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20% (down 4.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for September are based on 1,198 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

‘Not confident’: RBA pours cold water on Labor’s housing dream

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Oct-25

The Reserve Bank of Australia had been widely tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged at its monetary policy board meeting yesterday. Financial markets have priced in a 40 per cent chance of a rate cut at the next meeting in November, but RBA governor Michele Bullock says progress on returning core inflation to its mid-point target of 2.5 per cent will determine the next move on interest rates. Quarterly inflation data to be released ahead of the next board meeting is likely to be crucial. Meanwhile, Bullock has warned that federal government action to boost supply is unlikely to address the housing market’s structural deficit in the next two years.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.7pts to 86.3 before this week’s Reserve Bank meeting

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Oct-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.7pts to 86.3 in the week to 28 September. Consumer Confidence is now 4.3 points above the same week a year ago (82.0), and just 0.5pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows a broad trend, with Consumer Confidence reversing the results of last week and increasing in the four largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but down in South Australia. Now 22% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 29% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, just 10% (up 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Only 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 1ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 5% in late September – the same as for the full month of August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Sep-25

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 5% for the week of 15-21 September, the same as for the full month of August. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for August shows the measure at 5% for the month, up 0.2% points from July and the highest monthly Inflation Expectations since January 2025 (also 5%). Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% to 5.2% since the start of August 2024 and averaged 4.8%. A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for August shows mixed results, with increases in Queensland, Western Australia, New South Wales, unchanged in Victoria and Tasmania, and down in South Australia. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 4,099 Australians aged 14+ in August 2025.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.3pts to 84.6; lowest rating since the Federal Election in early May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Sep-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.3pts to 84.6 in the week to 21 September. Consumer Confidence is now 0.3 points below the same week a year ago (84.9), and 2.2pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.8. Analysis by State shows a broad trend, with Consumer Confidence falling in the four largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but up in South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 27% (up 1ppt) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, just 8% (down 2ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Only 21% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.4pts to 85.9; driven by rising concerns about personal finances

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Sep-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.4pts to 85.9 in the week to 14 September; however, it is now 1.8 points above the same week a year ago (81.9), but 1pt below the 2025 weekly average of 86.9. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but unchanged in Queensland and New South Wales. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 26% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, just 10% (down 1ppt) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Only 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

In August Australian unemployment increased 0.8% to 11.1%, while under-employment was unchanged at 10.9%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Sep-25

In August 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment rose by 132,000 to 1,776,000 (up 0.8% to 11.1% of the workforce). The rise in unemployment was driven by more people looking for part-time work (up 152,000 to 1,101,000), although there were fewer people looking for full-time work (down 20,000 to 675,000). In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.74 million Australians (10.9% of the workforce, unchanged) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work (up 5,000 from July). In total, 3.52 million Australians (22.0% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in August. Meanwhile, employment dropped 70,000 to 14,216,000; Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at 15,992,000 in August, up 62,000 on a month ago, and representing 69.2% of Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Wellbeing budget still relies on old data

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Original article by Lily McCaffrey
The Australian – Page: 2 : 16-Sep-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the timeliness of data is a vital part of the federal government’s Measuring What Matters national wellbeing framework. The government announced this framework as part of its ‘wellbeing budget’ in 2023, and Chalmers subsequently transferred responsibility for the framework’s reporting to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, the latest update to the framework shows that the ABS is largely using data that is at least three years old for many of the key wellbeing metrics. Chalmers says the government’s $14.8m funding boost for the ABS in 2024 will improve future Measuring What Matters data.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence drops in August as businesses grow more worried about the next 12 months

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Sep-25

In August 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 4.4pts to 98.6, despite the Reserve Bank electing to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.6% at its meeting in mid-August. Business Confidence is now 11.4pts below the long-term average of 110, and it is 2.7pts lower than in August 2024. Now 28.5% (down 3.7ppts) of businesses says their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago, while 35.4% (up 1.9ppts) say the business is ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 39.6% (down 1.3ppts) of respondents expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 24.3% (up 4ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for August are based on 1,189 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.3pts to 89.3; driven by more positive views about personal finances

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Sep-25

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 89.3 in the week to 7 September; it is now 7 points above the same week a year ago (82.3), and 2.4pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.9. Analysis by State shows mixed results, with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, unchanged in Western Australia, and down in New South Wales. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 29% (up 3ppts) of respondents expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ – this is the highest net rating for this indicator since the Federal Election. Meanwhile, 11% (down 3ppts) of respondents expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Just 26% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ