ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

IR laws to help workers by closing loopholes

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 16-Aug-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that wages increased by 0.8 per cent in the June quarter, the same pace as the two previous quarters. Wages growth eased to 3.6 per cent in the year to June. Workplace Relations Minister Tony Burke says that after 11 quarters of wages not keeping up with prices, the moderating inflation rate has caught up with wages growth. He adds that while the federal government’s first tranche of industrial relations reforms in 2022 were aimed at lifting wages across the board, the second tranche is aimed at closing loopholes that affect the wages of individual workers. Burke says the reforms will have a "very modest" economy-wide impact on wages.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKPLACE RELATIONS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.4pts to 75.0 – as perceptions of personal finances deteriorate

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.4pts to 75.0 in the week to 6 August, fully erasing the gains of the previous week. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 23 straight weeks below the mark of 80, beating the all-time record of five months from September 1990 to January 1991 when the index was conducted on a monthly rather than a weekly basis. Consumer Confidence is now 5.3pts below the same week a year ago (80.3), and 3.2pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.2. Consumer Confidence was down in all five mainland States. Now 17% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while a new record high majority of 57% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 28% (down 5ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 38% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 3.2pts to 78.4 – biggest two week jump since April 2020 after inflation softens

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Aug-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.2pts to 78.4 in the week to 30 July, to its highest since late April. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent 22 straight weeks below the mark of 80, equalling the all-time record from September 1990 to January 1991 when the index was conducted on a monthly rather than a weekly basis. Consumer Confidence is now 5.7pts below the same week a year ago (84.1), and just 0.1pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.3. Consumer Confidence was up in NSW, Victoria and SA, but down slightly in Queensland and WA. Now 20% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 33% (up 3ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 2023), while 34% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

New home approvals fall to weakest in four years

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 2-Aug-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was a 7.7 per cent decline in new housing approvals in June. A total of 175,790 new dwellings were approved in the year to 30 June, with approvals for detached dwellings falling by 13.8 per cent and attached homes down by 10.5 per cent. Maree Kilroy of Oxford Economics Australia says demand and supply for housing are moving in opposite directions, which will result in a sizeable dwelling deficiency over the coming years. Separate data shows that new home loan commitments fell by 22.1 per cent to $298.4bn in 2022-23.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, OXFORD ECONOMICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 2.6pts to 75.2 after decision to replace RBA boss Phil Lowe with Michele Bullock

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.6pts to 75.2 in the week to 23 July, to its highest since early June. However, Consumer Confidence has now spent 21 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 7.2pts below the same week a year ago (82.4), and 3.1pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.3. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and WA, but down slightly in South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 57% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 0.7pts to 72.6 – third straight week of declines

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.7pts to 72.6 in the week to 16 July. Consumer Confidence has now spent 20 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.2pts below the same week a year ago (81.8), and 5.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.4. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales and Victoria, but up slightly Queensland, WA and SA. Now only 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 57% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a new record high for this indicator in 50 years of interviewing). Some 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 57% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations down 0.4% points to 5.5% in mid-July after rising significantly in June and early July

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jul-23

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are down 0.4% points to 5.5% in mid-July after increasing steadily during June. This week Australians expected inflation of 5.5% annually over the next two years. Despite the weekly fall, the measure has averaged 5.7% so far in July after increasing significantly from a weekly low of 5.1% in mid-May. The monthly figure for June showed Inflation Expectations of 5.6%, an increase of 0.4% points from May, and the equal highest monthly figure so far this year after dipping to its lowest in over a year in May. Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations during 2023 have consistently been followed weeks later by the ABS CPI figures. The monthly ABS CPI figures dropped to 5.6% in May 2023 – down 1.2% points from April (6.8% annual CPI). If the trend continues, we can expect to see the ABS CPI annual figures for June register an increase after dipping in May. The ABS CPI figures for June are due to be released on 26 July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,966 Australians aged 14+ in June.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.8pts to 73.3 despite the RBA holding interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.8pts to 73.3 in the week to 9 July. Consumer Confidence has now spent 19 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 8.3pts below the same week a year ago (81.6), and 5.3pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.6. Consumer Confidence was unchanged in New South Wales but down in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA. Now only 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 39% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 56% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.8pts to 74.1 before the RBA meets on interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.8pts to 74.1 in the week to 2 July. Consumer Confidence has now spent 18 straight weeks below the mark of 80, the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 9.6pts below the same week a year ago (83.7), and 4.7pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.8. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, but up in WA and SA. Now only 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 56% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the equal record high for this indicator). Some 28% (unchanged) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 40% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 43% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

1.4m borrowers at risk of repayment stress

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jul-23

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled that further interest rate rises may be necessary in order to return inflation to its target range, after leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent on Tuesday. Households will face further financial pressure if there are more rate rises. Home loan borrowers will be particularly vulnerable, with research from Roy Morgan showing that 1.43 million mortgage borrowers are now at risk of mortgage stress; this is an increase of 627,000 in the last year. Roy Morgan estimates that an additional 51,000 borrowers would be at risk of mortgage stress if the cash rate is increased by another 25 basis points. A second rate rise of this size would put another 94,000 borrowers at risk of mortgage stress.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, ROY MORGAN LIMITED