ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 80.0 in late February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Mar-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.0 in the week to 26 February. However, Consumer Confidence is still 19.2pts below the same week a year ago (99.2) and 3.7pts below the 2023 weekly average of 83.7. Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but up slightly in New South Wales. Consumer Confidence is now below 80 in Victoria and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 48% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Trade surplus hits $41b

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 1-Mar-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s trade surplus rose to $40.9bn in the December quarter. The value of goods exported rose by 1.9 per cent overall, while the value of iron ore and metals exports increased by 6.8 per cent and 16.6 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, the current account surplus rose to $14.1bn, up from just $753m in the previous quarter. The trade figures are tipped to add about 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth data for the December quarter, which will be released on Wednesday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers slightly, up 2.3pts to 80.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.3pts to 80.4 in the week to 19 February. However, Consumer Confidence is still 21.4pts below the same week a year ago (101.8) and 3.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 84.3. Consumer Confidence was up in all five mainland States and above 80 in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but under 80 in New South Wales and Queensland. Now 22% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 51% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.7% points to 5.3% in January 2023 – the largest monthly fall on record

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-23

In January 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.7% points from December 2022. This is the largest monthly fall on record for Inflation Expectations and the largest two-month fall (-1.2% points). The early indications in February are that the decline in Inflation Expectations seen in January 2023 has continued, with the latest weekly reading falling to only 5.1%. A look at Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows that the decline in Inflation Expectations was nation-wide in January; Inflation Expectations are now highest in Victoria at 5.5% (down 0.4% points from a month ago), Queensland at 5.5% (down 0.8% points) and South Australia at 5.5% (down 0.9% points). Looking at the Country/City divide shows large falls for each with Inflation Expectations in Country Areas at 5.8% (down 0.8% points on a month ago), still far higher than in Capital Cities at 5.1% (down 0.6% points). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,984 Australians aged 14+ in January 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps 10.4 points to 106.4 in January – highest since April 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-23

In January 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 10.4 points to 106.4, the largest jump to start a new year since the index began in 2010. The increase to Business Confidence in January came before the RBA’s decision to increase interest rates for a ninth consecutive meeting, to the highest level since mid-2012. However, Business Confidence is 6.3pts below the long-term average of 112.7. Now 49.3% (up 10.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 48.2% (down 10.5ppts) expect bad times’. Some 46.7% (down 0.6ppts) of businssses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 20.8% (down 2.5ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 48.3% (up 8.7ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 43.7% (down 7.5ppts) said it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops to lowest since early April 2020 at only 78.1 after RBA increases interest rates to decade high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.5pts to 78.1 in the week to 12 February, after the RBA increased official interest rates to the highest level since October 2012. This was the largest weekly drop in Consumer Confidence following an RBA meeting since a fall of 6.6pts after it increased interest rates by 0.5% in early June. Consumer Confidence is now 25.1pts below the same week a year ago (103.2), and 6.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 84.9. Consumer Confidence was down in all five mainland States, and under 80 in all of them except Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 49% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 31% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 41% (up 8ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 6ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since early April 2020), while 54% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early April 2020).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian unemployment jumps to 10.7% in January – highest since JobKeeper ended in March 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Feb-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.61 million Australians (10.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in January, up 223,000 from December. The number of Australians looking for full-time work rose by 49,000 to 644,000 in January, while the number of people looking for part-time work rose by 174,000 to 963,000. Some 1.43 million Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – up 65,000 from December. In total, 3.03 million Australians (20.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January, up 288,000 on December. This is the highest level of combined unemployment and under-employment since February 2021. Meanwhile, employment decreased by 150,000 to 13,418,000 in January. This was driven by a drop in part-time employment (down 280,000 to 4,517,000), while full-time employment increased by 130,000 to 8,901,000. The movements in both full-time and part-time employment were in line with the normal seasonal trends seen at this time of year following the Christmas retailing season. Roy Morgan’s under-employment figure of 9.5% is over 3% points higher than the ABS estimate of 6.1% for December.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to lowest so far in 2023 as RBA set to meet for first time this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Feb-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2pts to 83.6 in the week to 5 February, the largest weekly drop for six months since early August 2022. Consumer Confidence is now 16.3pts below the same week a year ago (99.9), and 2.7pts below the 2023 weekly average of 86.3. Unusually, Consumer Confidence was down in all five mainland States. Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 47% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 33% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 9% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Retail slump won’t stop RBA rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Feb-23

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 3.9 per cent in December. This followed 11 consecutive months of growth. Monthly sales fell by $1.4bn to $34.4bn in seasonally adjusted terms in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the downturn in retail sales reflects the impact of rising interest rates on household budgets. However, some economists have downplayed the significance of the latest retail data, arguing that the Black Friday sales in late November affected the seasonally-adjusted figures. The Reserve Bank is still widely tipped to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.5% points to 6.0% in December 2022 and are far higher in Country Areas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Feb-23

In December 2022, Australians expected inflation of 6.0% annually over the next two years, down 0.5% points from a decade high of 6.5% reached in November. Inflation Expectations in December are 1.2% points higher than a year ago and up 2.4% points from two years ago. Inflation Expectations are now significantly below the ABS CPI figures for the year to December 2022, which showed consumer price inflation reaching a 32-year high of 7.8%. The early indications from this year are that the decline in Inflation Expectations at the end of 2022 has continued, with the latest weekly reading falling to only 5.1%. A deeper look at Inflation Expectations by region shows that expectations are consistently far higher in regional areas than in the Capital Cities. At a national level Inflation Expectations were at 6.7% in the Country Areas, compared to 5.6% in the Capital Cities. The largest gap is in Victoria, with Inflation Expectations at 7.4% in Country Victoria compared to only 5.4% in Melbourne. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,964 Australians aged 14+ in December 2022.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS