ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 77.3 – recovering some of the post-RBA interest rate increase slump

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 77.3 in the week to 21 May. The index has now spent 12 straight weeks below the mark of 80; the last time Consumer Confidence spent at least 12 weeks below the mark of 80 was during the 1990-91 recession, when the index was conducted on a monthly rather than a weekly basis. Consumer Confidence is now 13.5pts below the same week a year ago (90.8), and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.2. Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA, but down in New South Wales. Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (down 7ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (unchanged) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 17% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.3% points to 5.3% in April 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-23

In April 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.3% points from March. The monthly decrease in Inflation Expectations came before the RBA decided to increase interest rates in early May and before last week’s Federal Budget. The monthly decrease in April has been sustained in the first two weeks of May, with weekly Inflation Expectations still at 5.3% in mid-May and averaging 5.3% since late March. A look at Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows Inflation Expectations declining in most States in April; however, Queensland and Tasmania bucked the trend. A key factor to take account of is that Queensland and Tasmania are the two most decentralised States in Australia, with the majority of the population living outside the respective Capital Cities. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 7,489 Australians aged 14+ in April.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Kickstart productivity or be kicked: RBA

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Giuseppe Tauriello
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-May-23

The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting show that the decision to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in May was a "finely balanced" one. Amongst other things, the board members noted that the nation’s declining productivity since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic could make it difficult to bring inflation back under control. The RBA has warned that further interest rate increases are likely unless productivity is ‘kickstarted’. Analysts believe that quarterly wage price index data to be released on Wednesday could determine whether the RBA increases the cash rate in June.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

No Budget Bounce as ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 75.9 – lowest since early April 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 75.9 in the week to 14 May. The index has now spent 11 straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 13.4pts below the same week a year ago (89.3), and 4.4pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.3. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA; however, it was up in Victoria. Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2020), while 56% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a new record high for this indicator). Some 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.7 after the RBA unexpectedly increases interest rates again

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 77.7 in the week to 7 May. The index has now spent 10 straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 12.8pts below the same week a year ago (90.5), and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.6. As usual Consumer Confidence was mixed around the States, with decreases in Victoria, WA and SA, but up slightly in NSW and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 3.4 points to 90.2 in April before the RBA hiked interest rates in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

In April 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.2 (down 3.4pts since March), before the RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week to 3.85%. Business Confidence has returned to its level of November 2022 (90.2), when official interest rates were at 2.85%; there have since been four interest rate increases, totalling 1% points. Business Confidence is now 22.1pts below the long-term average of 112.3. Now 38.7% (down 3.1ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.7% (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 40.5% (down 5.6ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 51.7% (up 6.5ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. Only 37.4% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 60.1% (down 0.2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian employment hit a record high above 13.8 million in April as unemployment fell 0.9% to 8.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-May-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 124,000 to 1.29 million (8.5% of the workforce) in April. However, underemployment was up 21,000 to 1.34 million (8.9% of the workforce). A total of 2.63 million Australians (17.4% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in April, down 103,000 from March. Meanwhile, employment increased by 240,000 to 13,814,000 in April. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 68,000 to a new record high of 9,058,000; part-time employment also increased, up 172,000 to 4,756,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for April is 5% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for March and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 79.8 and has now spent a record nine straight weeks below 80

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-May-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 79.8 in the week to April 30. The index has now spent nine straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 10.9pts below the same week a year ago (90.7), and 0.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.7. Consumer Confidence was mixed around the States, with increases in Queensland and WA, but down in NSW, Victoria and South Australia. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 31% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Builders hit a high for insolvencies

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 3-May-23

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that an additional 71 businesses in the construction sector were declared insolvent in April. There have now been 1,672 construction industry insolvencies so far in the current financial year; this is the highest level since 2014, when 1,802 companies collapsed during the equivalent period. The Association of Professional Builders’ co-founder Russ Stephens says the construction sector has been too dependent on cash flow, with many firms facing financial problems once cash flows started to decline.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, ASSOCIATION OF PROFESSIONAL BUILDERS

Inflation Expectations increased 0.3% points to 5.6% in March 2023 – the first monthly increase since November 2022

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

In March 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.6% annually over the next two years, up 0.3% points from February. The monthly increase in Inflation Expectations came before the RBA decided to pause its cycle of interest rate rises in early April. The monthly increase in March has been sustained in the first two weeks of April, with weekly Inflation Expectations now at 5.6% in mid-April and averaging 5.6% over the last six weeks. A look at Inflation Expectations on a State-based level shows rising Inflation Expectations across the Australian mainland in March, although there was a significant decline in the island state of Tasmania. Inflation Expectations were highest in South Australia at 5.9% (up 0.9% points from a month ago) in March ahead of New South Wales at 5.7% (up 0.3% points) and Queensland also at 5.7% (up 0.1% points). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,987 Australians aged 14+ in March.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS