ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Mining deals boost Chinese investment tally

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 16 : 19-Apr-23

A report from KPMG and the University of Sydney shows that Chinese investment in Australia totalled $US1.4bn ($A2.08bn) in 2022. This was 143 per cent higher than in 2021, and the first increase in six years. Four large mining deals accounted for the bulk of the Chinese investment, headlined by Baowu Steel’s agreement to inject $1bn into Rio Tinto’s Western Range iron ore project in the Pilbara. Meanwhile, Chinese investors bought just $14m worth of Australian commercial real estate assets in 2022, down from $208m in 2021. Chinese investment in Australia peaked at $US16.2bn in 2008.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CHINA BAOWU STEEL GROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Apr-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts to 77.2 in the week to April 16. The index has now been below the mark of 80 for a seventh straight week – the longest stretch since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 19.6pts below the same week a year ago (96.8) and 3.8pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.0. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia; it now the only State with Consumer Confidence above the mark of 80. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Construction insolvencies approach decade high

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 & 31 : 19-Apr-23

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that there were 524 insolvencies in the construction sector in the March quarter and 1,601 in the first nine months of 2022-23. Australian Restructuring Insolvency & Turnaround Association CEO John Winter says the number of insolvencies in the sector is on track to exceed the decade-high of 1,802 recorded in fiscal 2014. He adds that the residential construction sector is suffering a severe hangover after years of a surge fuelled by cheap credit.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN RESTRUCTURING INSOLVENCY AND TURNAROUND ASSOCIATION

Twin RBA rate rises may be on horizon

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 19-Apr-23

Morgan Stanley believes that the strength of the domestic economy means that the Reserve Bank of Australia may increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in both August and September. Shares in retail and property-related stocks have risen in recent weeks amid speculation that the RBA’s monetary policy tightening cycle may have ended following the pause in April. However, Morgan Stanley cautions that the rebound may be premature, given that inflation remains high and the official unemployment rate is steady at 3.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 2.2 points to 93.6 in March before the RBA paused interest rate hikes

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Apr-23

In March 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.6 (down 2.2pts since February), after the RBA raised interest rates for a record tenth consecutive meeting in March but before it left the cash rate unchanged in April. The fall in Business Confidence in March was the second consecutive fall after a new year’s boost in January, although the index remains below the recent low of 90.2 reached in November 2022. Business Confidence is also 18.9pts below the long-term average of 112.5. Now 41.8% of businesses (up 0.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 27.1% (down 1ppt) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.1% (down 0.4ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 45.2% (down 1ppt) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.1pts to 79.3 and up 2.8pts from mid-March low of 76.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Apr-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.1pts to 79.3 in the week to April 9. The index has now increased by 2.8pts from the mid-March low of 76.5, its lowest level since early in the pandemic. However, this is the sixth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 15.3pts below the same week a year ago (94.6), and 1.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.2. Consumer Confidence was up in most States including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in NSW. Now 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (unchanged) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian full-time employment in March hit a record high of 9 million as unemployment fell 0.7% to 9.4%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Apr-23

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that the number of Australians who are unemployed fell by 111,000 to 1.41 million (9.4% of the workforce) in March. Underemployment was down 48,000 to 1.32 million (8.8% of the workforce). A total of 2.73 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were unemployed or underemployed in March, down 159,000. Meanwhile, employment increased by 57,000 to 13,574,000 in March. The increase was driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 41,000 to a new record high of 8,990,000; part-time employment also increased, up 16,000 to 4,584,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.4% is almost 6% points higher than the ABS estimate of 3.5% for February and is comparable to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 9.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.6pts to 78.2 this week; fifth week in a row below 80 is the first time since 1990-91

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Apr-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.6pts to 78.2 in the week to April 2; however, this is the fifth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the first time this has happened since the index began being conducted on a weekly rather than a monthly basis in October 2008. Consumer Confidence is now 15.2pts below the same week a year ago (93.4), and 3.5pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.4. Consumer Confidence was mixed around the country this week; it was driven upwards by a significant increase in New South Wales following the state election, and it was also up in WA and SA. In contrast, Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria and Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down for a fourth straight week by 0.5pts to 76.5 – lowest since early April 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.5pts to 76.5 in the week to 19 March; this is the lowest rating since early April 2020, in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer Confidence is now 14.7pts below the same week a year ago (91.2), and 5.6pts below the 2023 weekly average of 82.1. Consumer Confidence was mixed around the country; it was up in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in Queensland, and crucially down in New South Wales ahead of the election on Saturday. Now 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 37% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 55% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early April 2020).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence slumps 10.6 points to 95.8 in February after the RBA raises interest rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Mar-23

In February 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 95.8 (down 10.6pts since January) after the RBA raised interest rates for a ninth consecutive meeting in early February. The fall in Business Confidence in February reversed the increase of 10.4pts in January, and Business Confidence is now 16.8pts below the long-term average of 112.6. Now just 39.1% (down 10.2ppts of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 59.3% (up 11.1ppts) expect bad times’. Some 41.2% (down 5.5ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early stages of the pandemic in March 2020) while 28.1% (up 7.3ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator since in March 2020). Meanwhile, 46.5% (down 1.8ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 46.2% (up 2.5ppts) said it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED