ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 5.9% in July – the highest monthly rating since August 2012

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

In July 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.9% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points from June. Inflation Expectations in July are now 1.8% points higher than a year ago, and 2.5% points above the near record low of 3.4% in July 2020. A look at Inflation Expectations by socio-economic quintile shows large increases across the board since the measure hit record lows in mid-2020 during Victoria’s second COVID-19 wave. Inflation Expectations are lowest for the top ‘AB Quintile’ at 5.3%, although this is up 2.8% points since mid-2020 – the equal largest increase of any socio-economic quintile. Inflation Expectations are progressively higher for each subsequent socio-economic quintile. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in Tasmania in July at 7%, far higher than any other State. Next highest was the largest State of NSW at 6.3% – also well above the national average. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 7,484 Australians aged 14+ in July 2022.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases to 8.5% in July as workforce swells to 14.7 million Australians

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.25 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) were unemployed in July, up 121,000 (0.7%) from June. The number of Australians looking for full-time work was up 85,000 to 494,000 in July, and the number of people looking for part-time work was up 36,000 to 752,000. Some 1.27 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work – up 44,000 from June. In total, 2.52 million Australians (17.1% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, up 165,000 on June. Meanwhile, employment increased by 74,000 to 13,440,000 in July, driven by an increase in full-time employment (up 8,000 to 8,884,000); part-time employment rose by 66,000 to 4,556,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.5% for July is more than double the ABS estimate for June of 3.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops by 3.8pts to 80.3 after RBA raises interest rates for fourth straight month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Aug-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.8pts to 80.3 in the week ended 7 August. It is now 18.3pts below the same week a year ago (98.6). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 11.6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 91.9 and at its lowest since early April 2020 during the early stages of the pandemic. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down across all five mainland States this week with the largest falls in NSW, South Australia and Western Australia. Now 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 43% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 29% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 35% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 45% (up 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2020). Meanwhile, just 23% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 2.4pts to 94.9 – lowest since September 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-22

In July 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 2.4pts to 94.9. This is the third straight monthly fall and the first time the index fell for three straight months since the long lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria in August 2021. Business Confidence is now at its lowest since September 2020 (85.6), and 18.5pts below the long-term average of 113.4. The monthly decline in Business Confidence was driven by a fall in confidence about the prospects for the Australian economy over the next five years, with only 37.6% of businesses now expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years, down 2ppts from a month ago. Meanwhile, 41.4% (down 0.1ppts) expect the business to be ‘better off’ this time next year and 38.8% (up 0.2ppts) say the business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up by 1.7pts to 84.1 – a third straight weekly increase

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Aug-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.7pts to 84.1 in the week ended 31 July. However, it is 17.7pts below the same week a year ago (101.8), and 8.2pts below the 2022 weekly average of 92.3. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was up significantly in Queensland and South Australia, but down slightly in NSW, Victoria and WA. Now 23% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 32% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 32% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 23% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.3pts to 81.7 while Inflation Expectations soar to highest since late March

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jun-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 81.7 in the week ended 19 June. Despite the increase, Consumer Confidence is still 30.7pts below the same week a year ago (112.4), and it is now 12.9pts below the weekly average of 94.6. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia, but dropped in Queensland and Western Australia. Now 21% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 27% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 33% (down 5ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2020), while 38% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items), while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Red-hot jobs market to push RBA harder on rates

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Cecile Lefort, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 17-Jun-22

The latest labour force data has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy added about 60,000 jobs in May, well above market expectations of 25,000. The official unemployment rate was steady at 3.9 per cent, and the underemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. There is now widespread consensus among economists that the RBA will increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in July, and some economists anticipate that this will be followed by 50 basis point rises in both August and September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation Expectations drop 0.2% points to 5.3% in May, but are higher in the second half of May than the first

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

In May 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from April and down 0.5% points from the high of 5.8% reached in March. However, since the Federal Election won by the ALP Inflation Expectations have increased in the last two weeks of May. Inflation Expectations in May are 1.6% points higher than a year ago and clearly above the long-term average of 4.7%. The usual gap between Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities (5.2%) and Country Areas (5.3%) had all but disappeared by May. Since January 2020 Inflation Expectations have been consistently higher in Country Areas (4.3%) than in Capital Cities (4.0%). The smaller than usual gap is illustrated by differing situations around Australia. In Victoria and SA Inflation Expectations are higher in Country Areas than in the Capital Cities. However, Inflation Expectations are higher in the Capital Cities than Country Areas in NSW, Queensland and WA. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were again highest in the highly regional States of Tasmania (6.0%) and Queensland (5.5%). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,021 Australians aged 14+ in May 2022.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Confidence crash: Terrified consumers shut their wallets and fear for the future

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Original article by Elizabeth Knight
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

Consumer confidence as measured by ANZ-Roy Morgan has fallen to its lowest level since April 2020; indeed, when the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic are excluded, consumer confidence is now at a 31-year low. The ANZ Roy Morgan survey took place in the period following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s larger-than-expected 0.5 per cent increase in the cash rate, but before RBA governor Philip Lowe said that inflation is now likely to peak at seven per cent. Consumer confidence surveys are telling us households’ confidence in both financial and economic conditions has significantly deteriorate. If there is a positive to be taken from the plunging consumer sentiment index, it is that the RBA’s measures to take the heat out of inflation by raising rates is already starting to gain traction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 6.6pts to 80.4 after RBA increases interest rates by 0.50% – largest increase for over 20 years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 6.6pts to 80.4 in the week ended 12 June, to its lowest since early April 2020. Consumer Confidence is now 29.6pts below the same week a year ago (111.0), and 14.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 95.2. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, but virtually unchanged in Queensland. Now 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 41% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 27% (down 5ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since early April 2020), and 38% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator since March 2020). Only 8% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since October 2020), while 39% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2020). Meanwhile, just 23% (down 5ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since early April 2020), while 49% (up 7ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early April 2020).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ