ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.3pts to 95.8 as Russian invasion of Ukraine causes spike in fuel prices

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.3pts to 95.8 during the second week of March; it is now 15.1pts below the same week a year ago (110.9) and clearly below the 2022 weekly average of 100.6. Consumer Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all States and dropped in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but it was up slightly in Western Australia. Now 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 35% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 36% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 24% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 35% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 5.1% in February; highest for nearly eight years since June 2014

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

In February 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.1% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points from January. The level of Inflation Expectations in February is the highest since June 2014 (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are now 0.4% points above the long-term average of 4.7%, and 1.4% points higher than a year ago (3.7%). A look at Inflation Expectations by home ownership status in February 2022 shows that renters have clearly the highest Inflation Expectations at 5.9%, up 2.3% points since the low point of August 2020. People who are currently paying off their homes have the lowest Inflation Expectations at only 4.5% (up 1.5% points since August 2020), while those who own their home now have Inflation Expectations of 4.8% (up 1.7% points). During this same time period the Inflation Expectations of all Australians have increased by 1.9% points to 5.1%. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in Queensland at 5.5%; Inflation Expectations were also higher than the national average at 5.4% in both Western Australia and South Australia.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumped 19pts to 120.5 in February as Omicron variant rapidly receded

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

In February 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 19pts (+18.7%) to 120.5. This is the biggest monthly increase during the pandemic and essentially returns Business Confidence to its pre-Omicron level. There were positive moves across all aspects of the index; now 62.3% of businesses say they expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 53.1% of businesses say that the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. On a State-based level there were large monthly increases across the board in February led by Victoria, up a large 29.5pts (+30.6%) to 125.7, South Australia, up 25pts (+25.7%) to 122.5, Queensland, up 17pts (+18.3%) to 109.5 and Western Australia, up 14.6pts (+12.6%) to 130.4 – once again the highest Business Confidence in the nation as the State prepared to fully re-open its borders in early March. Business Confidence has risen to its highest level since the start of the ‘Delta wave’ of COVID-19 in June 2021 (128.3).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Housing market hits record $9.9 trillion

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 16-Mar-22

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that the total value of the nation’s housing stock rose to a new high of $9.9 trillion in the December quarter. This is $512.6 billion higher than in the previous three months, with growth of 4.7 per cent in national dwelling values. Brisbane recorded 9.6 per cent growth in housing values during the December quarter, while Adelaide and Melbourne recorded growth of 6.8 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively; however, growth in Sydney slowed to 4.1 per cent. Meanwhile, dwelling prices rose by 23.7 per nationally in the year to December.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down slightly by 1.4pts to 101.8 in the third week of February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.4pts to 101.8 during the third week of February; it is now 7.4pts below the same week a year ago (109.2), but it remains just above the 2022 weekly average of 101.5. Consumer Confidence this week was down around the country, with the largest decreases in NSW and Tasmania; however, Victoria bucked the trend, with Consumer Confidence up 3pts (107.8). Now 27% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 30% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 19% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 21% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunges 18.7pts to 101.5 in January as Omicron variant sweeps Australia

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Feb-22

In January 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell by 18.7pts (-15.6%) to 101.5. This is the biggest monthly plunge in the index in points during the pandemic and the largest fall in percentage terms since April 2020, when the index dropped 18.2pts (-19.1%). The plunge in January came as the Omicron variant swept Australia causing the infection of over 2 million Australians and forcing millions more into isolation for being close contacts of confirmed cases. The disruption to businesses caused problems throughout the economy and led to breakdowns in supply chains which are only now being gradually rectified. On a State-based level there were monthly decreases across the board in January; this was led by NSW, down 17.1pts (-13.7%) to 107.6. Despite the large fall in January, Business Confidence remains marginally in positive territory above the neutral level of 100. However, Business Confidence has fallen to the same level it was at during the middle of the ‘Delta wave’ in August 2021 (101.5) and is now well below the long-term average of 113.7.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Construction costs rise at fastest pace since 2005

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 9-Feb-22

CoreLogic has warned that residential construction costs are likely to rise further in the March quarter, citing factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions. The firm’s Cordell Construction Cost Index rose by just 1.1 per cent in the final three months of 2021, compared with 3.8 per cent in the September quarter. The index rose by 7.3 per cent in the year to December, its highest annual increase since March 2005. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the big rise in annual construction costs might increase the cost of new homes and renovations, which may in turn put upward pressure on inflation.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreases 1.9pts to 99.9 as Western Australia’s border remains closed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.9pts to 99.9 during the first week of February; it is 11.5pts below the same week a year ago (111.4), and just below the 2022 weekly average of 101.1. Consumer Confidence has decreased 9pts in Western Australia and 14pts in Perth, indicating dissatisfaction with the state’s continuing border closure. Now 23% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 32% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 35% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 21% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 14% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA opens door to 2022 rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that official interest rates could potentially rise before the end of 2022 if the economy continues to perform well. However, he has downplayed suggestions that the cash rate may be increased four times in 2022, arguing that Australia’s inflation rate is still well below that of countries such as the US and the UK. Lowe also said that the unemployment rate could soon fall below four per cent. The Commonwealth Bank still expects the cash rate to be increased in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Lowe keeps nation guessing on rates

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 2-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that official interest rates will rise in 2022. Lowe stated that although inflation has increased, it is not yet sustainably within the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. This has been identified as a prerequisite for increasing the cash rate, which was left at a record low of 0.1 per cent on Tuesday. The RBA will also end its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Lowe has forecast that core inflation will peak at 3.25 per cent, compared with 2.6 per cent at present, while he expects the unemployment rate to fall below four per cent later in 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA