ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Housing boom enters twilight

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Original article by Valerina Changarathil
The Australian – Page: 3 : 23-Nov-21

The Commonwealth Bank expects seven per cent growth in house prices in Australia’s capital cities in 2022. However, head of Australian economics Gareth Aird says the nation’s residential property boom is nearing its end, and he forecasts that house prices will fall by 10 per cent in 2023. However, he notes that this will merely see house prices return to current levels. Prices in Sydney and Hobart are tipped to decline by 12 per cent, while the housing markets in Melbourne and Canberra are forecast to fall by around 10 per cent. The ANZ Bank recently forecast that house prices will fall by four per cent in 2023.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia’s cash hoard grows 20pc to almost $100 billion

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 17-Nov-21

Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia shows that $50 and $100 banknotes now comprise 73 per cent of banknotes in circulation, and 94 per cent by value. The RBA adds that demand for lower-value banknotes has been ‘subdued’ during the COVID-19 pandemic. The total value of Australian banknotes in circulation has risen to nearly $100bn since the start of the pandemic, and the RBA estimates that Australians are storing between $50bn and $75bn of this amount in cash rather than in financial institutions. The RBA concedes that low interest rates may be a key driver of this "hoarding". The trend may also reflect the strength of the black economy.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3pts to 106.0 as worries about inflation mount

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Nov-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3pts to 106.0 on 13/14 November; it is now below the 2021 weekly average of 108.2 and 0.6 points lower than the same week a year ago (106.6). This is the first time Consumer Confidence has dropped below its level of a year ago since late November 2020. Consumer Confidence this week was down in NSW, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania, but there was a small increase in Queensland. Now 29% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 20% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 39% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED,AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence continued to slowly increase this week but there were divergent moves in re-opened Sydney and Melbourne

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Nov-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is now at 109.0 and has increased in 11 of the last 13 weeks since hitting a ‘Delta-wave’ low of 98.6 on August 7/8, 2021. That low was the week Victoria entered its record sixth lockdown, and Consumer Confidence has since increased by 10.4pts (+10.5%). We have been asked about the moves in Consumer Confidence in the key cities of Sydney and Melbourne which this week were in different directions. Consumer Confidence in Sydney increased by 4.4pts (+4.1%) to 112.8 as restrictions in the city continued to ease. Consumer Confidence in Sydney has now increased for two straight weeks. In contrast, Consumer Confidence in Melbourne was down 5pts (-4.4%) to 107.6. This decline reverses the similarly sized increase of 5.4pts (+5.0%) a week earlier. There were several likely drivers of this decline in Melbourne during the past week. There were large protests outside the Victorian Parliament against the proposed pandemic legislation which would give the Premier the power to declare a pandemic indefinitely, as well as the mandatory vaccinations being ordered by the Government. The State Government has also been in the spotlight over the last week as the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission investigates allegations of misuse of public funds to engage in ‘branch stacking’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 109.0 in the first week of November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Nov-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 109.0 on 6/7 November; it is now is just above the 2021 weekly average of 108.3, and 5.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (103.1). Consumer Confidence was up in Sydney, Perth and Adelaide, but down slightly in Melbourne and Brisbane. Now 31% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 40% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 19% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 40% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 28% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian unemployment increases to 9.2% in October – as over 12 million Australians are released from long lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.32 million Australians were unemployed in October, up 55,000 on September, for an unemployment rate of 9.2%. Driving the increase was more people looking for part-time work (up 114,000 to 849,000) while there was a decrease in people looking for full-time work (down 59,000 to 471,000). Some 1.23 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 64,000 (up 0.6% points) on September. In total, 2.55 million Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 119,000 on September. Meanwhile, employment dropped 289,000 to 13,019,000 in October, driven by the decrease in part-time employment (down 379,000 to 4,281,000 – the lowest since August 2020). In contrast, full-time employment increased by 90,000 in October to 8,738,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2021 of 4.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation Expectations jump 0.3% points to 4.8% in October; highest for seven years since November 2014

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Nov-21

In October 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.8% annually over the next two years, up 0.3% points, and the highest Inflation Expectations since November 2014. Inflation Expectations are now 1.3% points higher than a year ago (3.5%). Inflation Expectations are also now 0.1% points above the long-term average of 4.7%, the first time the measure has been above the long-term average since June 2012. A look at Inflation Expectations by Gender and Age shows that the gap between women and men is persisting and has widened slightly in recent months. Women’s Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% in October 2021, compared to 4.2% for men. Inflation Expectations are highest for people aged 50-64 at 5.0%. Women in this age group have Inflation Expectations of 5.6% compared to only 4.4% for men. There is also a large ‘Gender Gap’ of 1.3% points for people at either end of the age spectrum. For people aged under 35 women have Inflation Expectations of 5.4% compared to 4.1% for men, and those aged 65+ women’s Inflation Expectations are 5.3% compared to 4.0% for men. The only exception to this trend is for people aged 35-49 who have Inflation Expectations of 4.6% – the lowest of any age group. In this group the ‘Gender Gap’ is only 0.4% with women’s Inflation Expectations of 4.8% slightly higher than that for men of 4.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 106.8 as Melbourne’s sixth lockdown ends

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.2pts to 106.8 on 23/24 October. Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.2, but it is now 7.1 points higher than the same week a year ago (99.7). Consumer Confidence was up slightly in Victoria, and Melbourne, as the city began to re-open from its sixth lockdown; however, it was down slightly in NSW and Sydney nearly two weeks after that city re-opened earlier in October. Now 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 39% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 29% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps by 10.7pts (+10.2%) to 115.3 in October as lockdowns end in Sydney and Melbourne

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Oct-21

In October 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 10.7pts (+10.2%) to 115.3. This is the biggest increase in Business Confidence so far during 2021 and comes as long-running lockdowns have ended in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne and the ACT. Business Confidence is now 16.6pts (+16.8%) higher than in October 2020 (98.7), and it is back above the long-term average of 113.8 for the first time since July 2021. Now 55.1% of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months, while 55% of businesses say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. Business Confidence in October was up strongly in all six States from a year ago. The biggest increase was in South Australia, where Business Confidence increased by 46.5pts (+50%) to 139.5 to be higher than any other State. Western Australia has the second highest level of Business Confidence at 130.8, up 22.4pts (+20.7%) from a year ago; it is now over 15pts higher than the national figure of 115.3.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Home affordability near the worst for 10 years

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 26-Oct-21

Moody’s Investors Service expects a further decline in housing affordability in Sydney in the near-term. The ratings agency has warned that dwelling prices will need to rise by just 4.6 per cent for the Sydney market’s affordability to reach its highest level in 10 years. Moody’s also forecasts that housing affordability nationwide will reach its highest level in a decade if dwelling prices rise by 15 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the decline in housing affordability could eventually led to increased mortgage stress.

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED