ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for sixth straight week, up 1.4pts to 107.0 with Melbourne lockdown set to end

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 107.0 on 16/17 October. However, Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.3, although it is now 8.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (98.1). Consumer Confidence was up in Sydney following the end of the city’s 106-day lockdown; it also increased in Melbourne with the news that the lockdown would soon be ending and in Brisbane after that city avoided a lockdown despite concerns about a handful of cases. Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 37% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

M&A to smash records

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Original article by Kanika Sood, Anthony Macdonald, Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 20 : 19-Oct-21

Data from Refinitiv shows that $US350bn ($495bn) worth of takeover bids in Australia and New Zealand have been announced so far in 2021. This is three times the long-term average, and Takeovers Panel president Alex Cartel describes it as the hottest mergers and acquisitions environment in decades. Deal-making activity is being driven by factors such as the large amounts of cash on many companies’ balance sheets in the wake of the pandemic and the prospect of interest rates remaining low for some time. Almost $10bn worth of takeover bids involving Australian-listed were announced on 18 October.

CORPORATES
REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. TAKEOVERS PANEL

ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator – Quarterly Update September 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Oct-21

Financial wellbeing continues to be an important measure of how people are faring in their financial lives and the impact of the pandemic on their livelihoods. The ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator is reported as a 12-month rolling average, with quarterly updates showing changes in aspects of financial wellbeing across locations and for a range of segments in the community. This update compares 12 months of post COVID-19 financial wellbeing data to June 2021 with the pre COVID-19 period (12 months to March 2020). The June quarter was a period of optimism in Australia, with low COVID-19 infection numbers and minimal restrictions in April and May 2021. This is reflected in Australians feeling more positive about their financial situation at the time. However, these feelings were likely short-lived with a new wave of infections and restrictions in Australia’s two most populous cities by the end of the quarter. The ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator shows that the financial wellbeing of Australians declined by 4.4% from 60.7 (as a score out of 100) in the 12 months to March 2020 (pre-COVID-19) to 58.0 in the 12 months to June 2021.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for fifth straight week, up 1pt to 105.6 as Sydney lockdown ends

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1pt to 105.6 on 9/10 October. However, Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.3, although it is now 7.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (97.7). Consumer Confidence was up in Sydney as the 106-day lockdown finally came to an end. Consumer Confidence was also up in Brisbane and Adelaide, but down in Melbourne as the lockdown of that city is set to continue for another two weeks. Now 27% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 36% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 17% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 23% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 37% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 4.5% in September; highest for three years since October 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Oct-21

In September 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.5% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points and the highest Inflation Expectations since October 2018. Inflation Expectations are now 1.2% points higher than a year ago (3.3%). Inflation Expectations are still 0.2% points below their long-term average of 4.7%, but a full 1% point higher than the record low 2020 monthly average of 3.5%. A look at Inflation Expectations by Generations shows that there is now agreement between people of different ages about how much prices are set to rise. Inflation Expectations have increased across the board but have increased most rapidly for Australians aged under 60 – led by Millennials – up 1.6% points from a year ago to 4.5% in September. Generation X, now aged from 45-60, have the highest Inflation Expectations at 4.6% in September, an increase of 1.3% points from a year ago. The Inflation Expectations of Generation Z have also increased significantly, up 1.2% points to 4.5% – matching the increase of Australians overall. Although Inflation Expectations for Baby Boomers are in line with the national average at 4.5% this is an increase of only 0.7% points from a year ago while older Australians, aged 75+, the Pre-Boomers, now have the lowest Inflation Expectations at 4.2%, up only 0.6% points from a year ago. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are highest and well above the national average in Tasmania at 5.1%. Inflation Expectations are above the national average in New South Wales at 4.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Investors pump billions into new companies as listings soar

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Original article by Richard Henderson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 12-Oct-21

Data from Refinitiv shows that 121 companies have listed on the Australian sharemarket so far in 2021, compared with just 84 new listings in 2020. It is the highest level of listing activity since 2007, when 136 companies debuted on the local bourse. Some $6.7bn has been raised via IPOs during 2021, while the proposed floats of Judo Bank and GQG Partners would boost this by around $2bn. IPO activity was subdued earlier in the year, following the fallout from the ill-fated float of Nuix in late 2020.

CORPORATES
REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JUDO BANK PTY LTD, GQG PARTNERS INCORPORATED – ASX GQG, NUIX LIMITED – ASX NXL

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for fourth straight week, up 0.9pts to 104.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts to 104.6 on 2/3 October. Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.4, but it is now 8.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (95.7). Consumer Confidence was up in Sydney and Melbourne, as both cities quickly increase their vaccination rates, while down slightly in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Now 29% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 36% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 16% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 25% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian unemployment plummets to 8.7% in September – as lockdowns of over half of Australia’s population continue

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Oct-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.27 million Australians were unemployed in September, down 97,000 on August, for an unemployment rate of 8.7%. Driving the fall was far fewer more people looking for part-time work (down 135,000 to 735,000) while there was an increase in people looking for full-time work (up 38,000 to 530,000). Some 1.16 million Australians (8.0% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, a drop of 12,000 (down 0.2% points) from August. In total, 2.43 million Australians (16.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a drop of 108,000 on August. Overall, total unemployment and under-employment was at its lowest since early March 2020 (2.16 million) just prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, employment was up 267,000 to 13,308,000 in September, driven by an increase in part-time employment (up 273,000 to 4,660,000). In contrast, full-time employment was virtually unchanged at 8,648,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% for September is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for August 2021 of 4.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Housing value to hit $10 trillion

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Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Weekend Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 2-Oct-21

Data from CoreLogic shows that housing values in Australia have risen by 17.6 per cent so far in 2021, including 1.5 per cent in September. Meanwhile, the total value of the nation’s housing stock may top $10trn by the end of the year if the current growth momentum continues. The Australian Bureau of Statistics recently reported that the value of housing stock rose to $8.92trn in the June quarter. National Australia Bank has forecast that house prices will rise by 20 per cent in 2021, following growth of about 3.8 per cent in 2022.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Lockdowns no barrier to budget tax jump

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Original article by John Kehoe, Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-Oct-21

The federal government has advised that the Budget deficit blew out to a record $134.2bn in 2020-21, although this is well below the government’s worst-case scenario forecasts. Meanwhile, data from the Department of Finance shows that the underlying cash deficit for the first two months of 2021-21 was $22bn, compared with a forecast of $28.1bn in the Budget in May. Government revenue for the period was $12.1bn higher than had been forecast in the Budget, with higher-than-expected revenue from personal and company taxes.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE