ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian unemployment increases to 9.2% in October – as over 12 million Australians are released from long lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.32 million Australians were unemployed in October, up 55,000 on September, for an unemployment rate of 9.2%. Driving the increase was more people looking for part-time work (up 114,000 to 849,000) while there was a decrease in people looking for full-time work (down 59,000 to 471,000). Some 1.23 million Australians (8.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, an increase of 64,000 (up 0.6% points) on September. In total, 2.55 million Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 119,000 on September. Meanwhile, employment dropped 289,000 to 13,019,000 in October, driven by the decrease in part-time employment (down 379,000 to 4,281,000 – the lowest since August 2020). In contrast, full-time employment increased by 90,000 in October to 8,738,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% for October is over 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2021 of 4.6%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation Expectations jump 0.3% points to 4.8% in October; highest for seven years since November 2014

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Nov-21

In October 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.8% annually over the next two years, up 0.3% points, and the highest Inflation Expectations since November 2014. Inflation Expectations are now 1.3% points higher than a year ago (3.5%). Inflation Expectations are also now 0.1% points above the long-term average of 4.7%, the first time the measure has been above the long-term average since June 2012. A look at Inflation Expectations by Gender and Age shows that the gap between women and men is persisting and has widened slightly in recent months. Women’s Inflation Expectations are at 5.3% in October 2021, compared to 4.2% for men. Inflation Expectations are highest for people aged 50-64 at 5.0%. Women in this age group have Inflation Expectations of 5.6% compared to only 4.4% for men. There is also a large ‘Gender Gap’ of 1.3% points for people at either end of the age spectrum. For people aged under 35 women have Inflation Expectations of 5.4% compared to 4.1% for men, and those aged 65+ women’s Inflation Expectations are 5.3% compared to 4.0% for men. The only exception to this trend is for people aged 35-49 who have Inflation Expectations of 4.6% – the lowest of any age group. In this group the ‘Gender Gap’ is only 0.4% with women’s Inflation Expectations of 4.8% slightly higher than that for men of 4.4%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 106.8 as Melbourne’s sixth lockdown ends

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.2pts to 106.8 on 23/24 October. Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.2, but it is now 7.1 points higher than the same week a year ago (99.7). Consumer Confidence was up slightly in Victoria, and Melbourne, as the city began to re-open from its sixth lockdown; however, it was down slightly in NSW and Sydney nearly two weeks after that city re-opened earlier in October. Now 28% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 39% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 29% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumps by 10.7pts (+10.2%) to 115.3 in October as lockdowns end in Sydney and Melbourne

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Oct-21

In October 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 10.7pts (+10.2%) to 115.3. This is the biggest increase in Business Confidence so far during 2021 and comes as long-running lockdowns have ended in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne and the ACT. Business Confidence is now 16.6pts (+16.8%) higher than in October 2020 (98.7), and it is back above the long-term average of 113.8 for the first time since July 2021. Now 55.1% of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months, while 55% of businesses say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. Business Confidence in October was up strongly in all six States from a year ago. The biggest increase was in South Australia, where Business Confidence increased by 46.5pts (+50%) to 139.5 to be higher than any other State. Western Australia has the second highest level of Business Confidence at 130.8, up 22.4pts (+20.7%) from a year ago; it is now over 15pts higher than the national figure of 115.3.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Home affordability near the worst for 10 years

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 26-Oct-21

Moody’s Investors Service expects a further decline in housing affordability in Sydney in the near-term. The ratings agency has warned that dwelling prices will need to rise by just 4.6 per cent for the Sydney market’s affordability to reach its highest level in 10 years. Moody’s also forecasts that housing affordability nationwide will reach its highest level in a decade if dwelling prices rise by 15 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the decline in housing affordability could eventually led to increased mortgage stress.

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MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for sixth straight week, up 1.4pts to 107.0 with Melbourne lockdown set to end

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.4pts to 107.0 on 16/17 October. However, Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.3, although it is now 8.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (98.1). Consumer Confidence was up in Sydney following the end of the city’s 106-day lockdown; it also increased in Melbourne with the news that the lockdown would soon be ending and in Brisbane after that city avoided a lockdown despite concerns about a handful of cases. Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 37% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

M&A to smash records

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Original article by Kanika Sood, Anthony Macdonald, Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 20 : 19-Oct-21

Data from Refinitiv shows that $US350bn ($495bn) worth of takeover bids in Australia and New Zealand have been announced so far in 2021. This is three times the long-term average, and Takeovers Panel president Alex Cartel describes it as the hottest mergers and acquisitions environment in decades. Deal-making activity is being driven by factors such as the large amounts of cash on many companies’ balance sheets in the wake of the pandemic and the prospect of interest rates remaining low for some time. Almost $10bn worth of takeover bids involving Australian-listed were announced on 18 October.

CORPORATES
REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. TAKEOVERS PANEL

ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator – Quarterly Update September 2021

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Oct-21

Financial wellbeing continues to be an important measure of how people are faring in their financial lives and the impact of the pandemic on their livelihoods. The ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator is reported as a 12-month rolling average, with quarterly updates showing changes in aspects of financial wellbeing across locations and for a range of segments in the community. This update compares 12 months of post COVID-19 financial wellbeing data to June 2021 with the pre COVID-19 period (12 months to March 2020). The June quarter was a period of optimism in Australia, with low COVID-19 infection numbers and minimal restrictions in April and May 2021. This is reflected in Australians feeling more positive about their financial situation at the time. However, these feelings were likely short-lived with a new wave of infections and restrictions in Australia’s two most populous cities by the end of the quarter. The ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator shows that the financial wellbeing of Australians declined by 4.4% from 60.7 (as a score out of 100) in the 12 months to March 2020 (pre-COVID-19) to 58.0 in the 12 months to June 2021.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for fifth straight week, up 1pt to 105.6 as Sydney lockdown ends

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Oct-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1pt to 105.6 on 9/10 October. However, Consumer Confidence remains below the 2021 weekly average of 108.3, although it is now 7.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (97.7). Consumer Confidence was up in Sydney as the 106-day lockdown finally came to an end. Consumer Confidence was also up in Brisbane and Adelaide, but down in Melbourne as the lockdown of that city is set to continue for another two weeks. Now 27% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 36% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 17% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 23% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 37% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 4.5% in September; highest for three years since October 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Oct-21

In September 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.5% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points and the highest Inflation Expectations since October 2018. Inflation Expectations are now 1.2% points higher than a year ago (3.3%). Inflation Expectations are still 0.2% points below their long-term average of 4.7%, but a full 1% point higher than the record low 2020 monthly average of 3.5%. A look at Inflation Expectations by Generations shows that there is now agreement between people of different ages about how much prices are set to rise. Inflation Expectations have increased across the board but have increased most rapidly for Australians aged under 60 – led by Millennials – up 1.6% points from a year ago to 4.5% in September. Generation X, now aged from 45-60, have the highest Inflation Expectations at 4.6% in September, an increase of 1.3% points from a year ago. The Inflation Expectations of Generation Z have also increased significantly, up 1.2% points to 4.5% – matching the increase of Australians overall. Although Inflation Expectations for Baby Boomers are in line with the national average at 4.5% this is an increase of only 0.7% points from a year ago while older Australians, aged 75+, the Pre-Boomers, now have the lowest Inflation Expectations at 4.2%, up only 0.6% points from a year ago. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are highest and well above the national average in Tasmania at 5.1%. Inflation Expectations are above the national average in New South Wales at 4.7%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED