ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Demand for new houses goes through the roof

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Original article by Melissa Iaria
The Australian – Page: 20 : 1-Oct-21

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 6.8 per cent growth in dwelling approvals nationwide in August. This followed an 8.6 per cent decline in July. Private-sector housing approvals rose by 3.5 per cent month-on-month and nearly 24 per cent over the year to August. Daniel Rossi from the ABS attributes the rebound in housing approvals to factors such as increased household savings, historically low interest rates and confidence in the housing market.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence increases by 3.1pts (+3.1%) to 104.6 in September as NSW and Victoria outline re-opening plans

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Sep-21

In September 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 3.1pts (+3.1%) to 104.6. Business Confidence has increased for the first time since May, following the outlining of re-opening plans in September in both NSW and Victoria. Business Confidence is 19pts (+22.2%) higher than in September 2020 (85.6); however, Business Confidence is now 9.2pts below the long-term average of 113.8. Businesses grew increasingly confident about the performance of the Australian economy, with of 50.4% of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months. In addition, 47.4% of businesses say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. Business Confidence in September was widely divergent amongst the Australian States although all six were up strongly on a year ago. Western Australia has by far the highest Business Confidence at 135.4, up 26.5pts (+23.4%) from a year ago and is now over 30pts higher than the national figure of 104.6. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for September are based on 1,417 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for third straight week to 103.7 as Australians focused on domestic issues

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Sep-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.4pts to 103.7 on September 25/26. The small increase came as Australians focused on domestic issues in recent weeks, with the ‘AUKUS’ defence agreement with the US and UK having a negligible impact on people in Australia. Despite the increase Consumer Confidence remains well below the 2021 weekly average of 108.5, but it is now 8.7 points higher than the same week a year ago (95.0). Consumer Confidence was up slightly in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, and down slightly in the other States. Now 28% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (down 2ppts) also say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 14% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 25% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 38% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 31% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 4.3% in August; highest for nearly three years since November 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22 September August 2021

In August 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.3% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points and the highest Inflation Expectations since November 2018. Inflation Expectations are now up 1.1% points since the pandemic low of 3.2% in August 2020. Inflation Expectations are still 0.4% points below their long-term average of 4.7% but are now 0.8% points higher than the 2020 monthly average of 3.5%. A look at Inflation Expectations by Federal Voting Intention shows big increases across the board from a year ago, and up significantly from two years. Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters increased 1.1% points from a year ago to 4.2% in August and are now 0.7% points higher than two years ago in August 2019. In fact, the Inflation Expectations of L-NP supporters are now at their highest level since November 2014. The Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters have increased faster than any other over the last year and are up 1.5% points to 3.9% – but are still lower than supporters of all other parties. The Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters are at 4.2% in August, up 0.9% points from a year ago and now 0.5% points higher than two years ago in August 2019. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are highest and well above the national average in both Tasmania at 4.7% and Queensland at 4.5%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 103.3 before Victorian re-opening plan outlined on Sunday

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Sep-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.2pts to 103.3 on September 18/19, before Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews outlined the State’s re-opening plan; the full impact on confidence won’t be felt until next weekend. Consumer Confidence remains well below the 2021 weekly average of 108.6, but it is now 9.8 points higher than the same week a year ago (93.5). Consumer Confidence this week was down slightly in both NSW and Victoria, although still in positive territory in both States. Consumer Confidence increased in both Queensland and South Australia, and was virtually unchanged – and higher than anywhere else – in Western Australia at well over 110. Now 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 30% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and only 13% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 14% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 24% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falls 1.8pts to a neutral result of 100.0 with positive and negative sentiment now evenly balanced

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Sep-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8pts to 100.0 on September 4/5, with sentiment now evenly balanced between positive and negative sentiment. Consumer Confidence is well below the 2021 weekly average of 108.9, but it is 8.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (91.1). Consumer Confidence fell in both Victoria and NSW and is now clearly below the neutral level of 100 in both States and both Sydney and Melbourne. However, Consumer Confidence in South Australia and Queensland is just above 100 while it is significantly higher in Western Australia at over 110. Now 26% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 29% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 34% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and only 16% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 33% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian unemployment drops to 9.5% in August – as lockdowns force contractions in key workforce estimates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Sep-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.36 million Australians were unemployed in August, down 60,000 on July, for an unemployment rate of 9.5%. Driving the fall was far fewer more people looking for full-time work (down 127,000 to 492,000) while there was an increase in people looking for part-time work (up 67,000 to 870,000). Some 1.18 million Australians (8.2% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work, a drop of 159,000 (down 0.9% points) from July. In total, 2.54 million Australians (17.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in August, a drop of 220,000 on July. The drop was driven by the contracting workforce during lockdowns as both unemployment and under-employment fell from a month ago. Meanwhile, employment was down by 157,000 to 13,041,000 in August, including 8,654,000 workers employed full-time, a drop of 111,000 from July. There was also a decrease in part-time employment, down by 46,000 to 4,387,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.5% for August is nearly 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for July 2021 of 4.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunges by 15.7pts (-13.4%) to 101.5 as Sydney and Melbourne endure extended lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Sep-21

In August 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell 15.7pts (-13.4%) to 101.5. Despite the fall Business Confidence is 18.4pts (+18.1%) higher than a year ago (83.1), but it is 12.3pts below the long-term average of 113.8. Despite the third straight monthly fall in August, Business Confidence has now averaged 120.9 during the first eight months of 2021, which is still the best ever start to a year for the Index. Business Confidence was down in all six Australian States, but it is still lowest in New South Wales. Some 46.2% (down 13.7ppts) of businesses now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 51.2% (up 13.7ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since October 2020). Meanwhile, 47.9% (down 4.4ppts) say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2020), while 43.4% (up 5.4ppts) said it will be a ‘bad time to invest’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for August are based on 1,301 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 101.8 as vaccination levels rise but lockdowns continue

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Sep-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.2% to 101.8 on August 28/29, despite rising COVID-19 case numbers in New South Wales and Victoria. Consumer Confidence is still well below the 2021 weekly average of 109, but it is now 11.6 points higher than the same week a year ago (90.2). Consumer Confidence is again lowest in Victoria and NSW, just below the neutral level of 100. Consumer Confidence in South Australia and Queensland is just above 100 while it is significantly higher in Western Australia at over 110. Now 26% (down 3ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and only 14% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 12% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 35% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up slightly to 101.6 despite lockdown extensions in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Aug-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts to 101.6 on August 21/22, although it is still well below the 2021 weekly average of 109.4. Consumer Confidence is now only 8.9 points higher than the same week a year ago (92.7). Consumer Confidence is now lowest in Victoria and NSW just below the neutral level of 100. Consumer Confidence in Queensland is just above 100 while it is significantly higher in both Western Australia and South Australia at over 110. Now 29% (up 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 26% (down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 35% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and only 14% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 12% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ