ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.3pts to 81.7 while Inflation Expectations soar to highest since late March

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Jun-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.3pts to 81.7 in the week ended 19 June. Despite the increase, Consumer Confidence is still 30.7pts below the same week a year ago (112.4), and it is now 12.9pts below the weekly average of 94.6. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia, but dropped in Queensland and Western Australia. Now 21% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 42% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 27% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 33% (down 5ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the lowest figure for this indicator since September 2020), while 38% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, just 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items), while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Red-hot jobs market to push RBA harder on rates

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Cecile Lefort, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 17-Jun-22

The latest labour force data has heightened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy added about 60,000 jobs in May, well above market expectations of 25,000. The official unemployment rate was steady at 3.9 per cent, and the underemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. There is now widespread consensus among economists that the RBA will increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in July, and some economists anticipate that this will be followed by 50 basis point rises in both August and September.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Inflation Expectations drop 0.2% points to 5.3% in May, but are higher in the second half of May than the first

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

In May 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from April and down 0.5% points from the high of 5.8% reached in March. However, since the Federal Election won by the ALP Inflation Expectations have increased in the last two weeks of May. Inflation Expectations in May are 1.6% points higher than a year ago and clearly above the long-term average of 4.7%. The usual gap between Inflation Expectations in Capital Cities (5.2%) and Country Areas (5.3%) had all but disappeared by May. Since January 2020 Inflation Expectations have been consistently higher in Country Areas (4.3%) than in Capital Cities (4.0%). The smaller than usual gap is illustrated by differing situations around Australia. In Victoria and SA Inflation Expectations are higher in Country Areas than in the Capital Cities. However, Inflation Expectations are higher in the Capital Cities than Country Areas in NSW, Queensland and WA. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were again highest in the highly regional States of Tasmania (6.0%) and Queensland (5.5%). The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,021 Australians aged 14+ in May 2022.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Confidence crash: Terrified consumers shut their wallets and fear for the future

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Original article by Elizabeth Knight
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

Consumer confidence as measured by ANZ-Roy Morgan has fallen to its lowest level since April 2020; indeed, when the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic are excluded, consumer confidence is now at a 31-year low. The ANZ Roy Morgan survey took place in the period following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s larger-than-expected 0.5 per cent increase in the cash rate, but before RBA governor Philip Lowe said that inflation is now likely to peak at seven per cent. Consumer confidence surveys are telling us households’ confidence in both financial and economic conditions has significantly deteriorate. If there is a positive to be taken from the plunging consumer sentiment index, it is that the RBA’s measures to take the heat out of inflation by raising rates is already starting to gain traction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 6.6pts to 80.4 after RBA increases interest rates by 0.50% – largest increase for over 20 years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jun-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 6.6pts to 80.4 in the week ended 12 June, to its lowest since early April 2020. Consumer Confidence is now 29.6pts below the same week a year ago (111.0), and 14.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 95.2. On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, but virtually unchanged in Queensland. Now 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 41% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 27% (down 5ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since early April 2020), and 38% (up 6ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator since March 2020). Only 8% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since October 2020), while 39% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since September 2020). Meanwhile, just 23% (down 5ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since early April 2020), while 49% (up 7ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator since early April 2020).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.3pts to 95.8 as Russian invasion of Ukraine causes spike in fuel prices

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.3pts to 95.8 during the second week of March; it is now 15.1pts below the same week a year ago (110.9) and clearly below the 2022 weekly average of 100.6. Consumer Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all States and dropped in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but it was up slightly in Western Australia. Now 26% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 35% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 36% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 24% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 35% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 36% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% points to 5.1% in February; highest for nearly eight years since June 2014

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

In February 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.1% annually over the next two years, up 0.2% points from January. The level of Inflation Expectations in February is the highest since June 2014 (5.3%). Inflation Expectations are now 0.4% points above the long-term average of 4.7%, and 1.4% points higher than a year ago (3.7%). A look at Inflation Expectations by home ownership status in February 2022 shows that renters have clearly the highest Inflation Expectations at 5.9%, up 2.3% points since the low point of August 2020. People who are currently paying off their homes have the lowest Inflation Expectations at only 4.5% (up 1.5% points since August 2020), while those who own their home now have Inflation Expectations of 4.8% (up 1.7% points). During this same time period the Inflation Expectations of all Australians have increased by 1.9% points to 5.1%. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in Queensland at 5.5%; Inflation Expectations were also higher than the national average at 5.4% in both Western Australia and South Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumped 19pts to 120.5 in February as Omicron variant rapidly receded

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Mar-22

In February 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence rose 19pts (+18.7%) to 120.5. This is the biggest monthly increase during the pandemic and essentially returns Business Confidence to its pre-Omicron level. There were positive moves across all aspects of the index; now 62.3% of businesses say they expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 53.1% of businesses say that the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. On a State-based level there were large monthly increases across the board in February led by Victoria, up a large 29.5pts (+30.6%) to 125.7, South Australia, up 25pts (+25.7%) to 122.5, Queensland, up 17pts (+18.3%) to 109.5 and Western Australia, up 14.6pts (+12.6%) to 130.4 – once again the highest Business Confidence in the nation as the State prepared to fully re-open its borders in early March. Business Confidence has risen to its highest level since the start of the ‘Delta wave’ of COVID-19 in June 2021 (128.3).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Housing market hits record $9.9 trillion

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 16-Mar-22

The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that the total value of the nation’s housing stock rose to a new high of $9.9 trillion in the December quarter. This is $512.6 billion higher than in the previous three months, with growth of 4.7 per cent in national dwelling values. Brisbane recorded 9.6 per cent growth in housing values during the December quarter, while Adelaide and Melbourne recorded growth of 6.8 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively; however, growth in Sydney slowed to 4.1 per cent. Meanwhile, dwelling prices rose by 23.7 per nationally in the year to December.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down slightly by 1.4pts to 101.8 in the third week of February

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.4pts to 101.8 during the third week of February; it is now 7.4pts below the same week a year ago (109.2), but it remains just above the 2022 weekly average of 101.5. Consumer Confidence this week was down around the country, with the largest decreases in NSW and Tasmania; however, Victoria bucked the trend, with Consumer Confidence up 3pts (107.8). Now 27% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 30% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 35% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 19% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 21% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ