ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Jobless data hides the premiers’ recession

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Herald Sun – Page: 59 : 20-Aug-21

The latest ‘official’ unemployment data belies the fact that the Australian economy is already in a ‘second wave’ recession. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show that the unemployment rate fell to a 12-year low of just 4.6 per cent in July. The more accurate and more meaningful data released by Roy Morgan two weeks ago had already shown that the real jobless rate in July was 9.7 per cent. Likewise, the Roy Morgan figures show that the underemployment rate is 9.1 per cent, compared with the ABS estimate of 8.3 per cent. Unlike the Roy Morgan data, the ABS figures cover only the first half of July, so they include Victoria’s fifth lockdown but not the current and already much longer one.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ acts to halt fall in home lending

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 17 : 19-Aug-21

The ANZ Bank has revealed that its home loan book fell by $300m during the June quarter, to $280bn. Mortgage lending grew by $16.2bn for the period, but there was a $16.5bn increase in customers paying off their loans amid record low interest rates. Meanwhile, the bank has disclosed that 1,300 of its mortgage customers were still on deferred repayment plans during the quarter, which equates to just 0.2 per cent of its mortgage book. Likewise, only 50 business loans were deferred during the quarter, compared with 24,000 in 2020-21.

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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops below neutral level of 100 after SE Queensland & Victoria plunged into lockdown

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Aug-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.2pts to 98.6 on August 7/8, after new lockdowns were imposed covering South-East Queensland and Victoria and more than 15 million people were placed under stay-at-home orders. Consumer Confidence is well below the 2021 weekly average of 109.9; however, it remains 12.1 points higher than the same week a year ago (86.5). The lockdowns in South-East Queensland and Victoria helped drive Consumer Confidence under the neutral level of 100 for the first time since early November 2020. Consumer Confidence in Queensland was down 7.8% on a week ago and Victoria was down 3.0%. However, Consumer Confidence in NSW increased by 3.7% as curbs on some industries were relaxed. Now 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 31% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year). In addition, 34% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 13% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 28% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 32% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator since late August 2020), while 36% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australian employment dropped by 176,000 in July as all five mainland States experienced lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Aug-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.42 million Australians were unemployed in July, up 28,000 on June, for an unemployment rate of 9.7% (up 0.3% points). Some 1.33 million Australians were under-employed (up 77,000 on June), for an under-employment rate of 9.1% (up 0.6% points). In total, 2.76 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July, an increase of 105,000 on June. The increase was driven by increases in both unemployment and under-employment. Meanwhile, employment was down by 176,000 to 13,198,000 in July, including 8,765,000 workers employed full-time, a drop of 61,000 from June. There was also a decrease in part-time employment, down by 115,000 to 4,433,000. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.7% for July is nearly 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2021 of 4.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

It’s a tricky path trying to steer between the prevailing greed and hysteria

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Sunday Herald Sun – Page: 50 & 51 : 8-Aug-21

Data from Roy Morgan shows that 28,000 Australians lost their jobs in July, amid the fifth lockdown in Victoria and the ongoing lockdown in New South Wales. Roy Morgan estimates that 1.4 million Australians were unemployed in July, while an addition 1.33 million were under-employed. These figures do not take into account the full impact of the NSW lockdown and the latest lockdowns in Victoria and Queensland. Meanwhile, official jobs data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for July will not be available for another two weeks, and will cover only the first two weeks of the month. The big question is whether state governments will continue to impose job-destroying lockdowns if the vaccination target of 70-80 per cent of Australians is reached and the nation is still recording new COVID-19 cases and deaths.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunges by 11.1pts (-8.7%) to 117.2 after Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide placed in lockdowns

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

In July 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 11.1pts (-8.7%) to 117.2. Despite the fall, Business Confidence is 32.9pts (+39%) higher than a year ago (84.3), and it is 3.3pts above the long-term average of 113.9. Business Confidence has now averaged 123.6 during the first seven months of 2021, the best ever start to a year for the Index. The reading of 117.2 for July is also the highest level of Business Confidence in the mid-Winter month since July 2014 (119.1). Some 59.9% of businesses now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, and 52.3% say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,341 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations increase to 4.1% in July, highest for nearly 2 years since Oct 2019

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

In July 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.1% annually over the next two years, up 0.1% and the highest Inflation Expectations since October 2019. Inflation Expectations are now up 0.9% points since the pandemic low of 3.2% in August 2020. Inflation Expectations are still 0.6% points below their long-term average of 4.7%, but are now 0.6% points higher than the 2020 monthly average of 3.5% and 0.7% points higher than in July 2020 (3.4%). A look at Inflation Expectations by occupation and employment category compared to a year ago shows increases across the board. Inflation Expectations for employed Australians increased by 0.8% points to 4.0% but still trail those of Australians who are not employed at 4.3%, an increase of 0.6% points from July 2020. Self-employed Australians now have the highest Inflation Expectations of any employment category at 4.4% in July, up 0.9% points since July 202; there has been a similar increase for Australians employed in private industry, with Inflation Expectations of 4.1% (up 0.9% points). However, those in the public service have a different view and their Inflation Expectations have only increased 0.3% points to 3.5%. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are slightly higher than the national average and are now highest in Queensland and Tasmania at 4.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases slightly to 101.8 as Melbourne & Adelaide lockdowns end

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.1pts to 101.8 on July 31/August 1, after lockdowns in Melbourne and Adelaide ended and Australians were advised of vaccination targets to achieve to avoid future lockdowns. Consumer Confidence is well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.3; however, it remains 13.2 points higher than the same week a year ago (88.6). There were mixed fortunes for Consumer Confidence around the country, with increases in Melbourne and Adelaide, while there was a decline in Sydney after the lockdown was extended for another month. Now 26% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops a further 3.6pts to 100.7 as COVID-19 cases numbers remain stubbornly high in NSW, despite lockdown

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.6pts to 100.7 on July 24/25, as daily NSW COVID-19 cases remain high despite the Greater Sydney lockdown. Consumer Confidence continues to remain well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.6; however, it is still 11.7 points higher than the same week a year ago (89.0). Consumer Confidence was down 2.2pts (-2.2%) to 99.3 in Sydney and down 6.8pts (-6.4%) to 99.0 in Melbourne. Consumer Confidence also fell significantly in Brisbane, but it increased slightly in Adelaide as the state continues to record low COVID-19 case numbers. Now 25% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 34% (down 4ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since early October 2020), and 15% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 12% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020). Meanwhile, 34% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – to put this indicator in negative territory for the first time since mid-October 2020 during Victoria’s second wave.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 5.7pts to 104.3 – its lowest since early November 2020 as lockdown extended in Sydney and Melbourne goes into fifth lockdown

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.7pts to 104.3 on July 17/18, after the Greater Sydney lockdown was extended until at least the end of July and Melbourne entered an unprecedented fifth lockdown late last week. Consumer Confidence is now sitting clearly below the 2021 weekly average of 110.9; however, it is still 13.6 points higher than the same week a year ago (90.7). Now 29% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 24% (up 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020). Meanwhile, 36% (down 7ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (up 6ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – an overall swing of 13ppts and the worst result for this question since early November 2020.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ