ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunges 18.7pts to 101.5 in January as Omicron variant sweeps Australia

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Feb-22

In January 2022, Roy Morgan Business Confidence fell by 18.7pts (-15.6%) to 101.5. This is the biggest monthly plunge in the index in points during the pandemic and the largest fall in percentage terms since April 2020, when the index dropped 18.2pts (-19.1%). The plunge in January came as the Omicron variant swept Australia causing the infection of over 2 million Australians and forcing millions more into isolation for being close contacts of confirmed cases. The disruption to businesses caused problems throughout the economy and led to breakdowns in supply chains which are only now being gradually rectified. On a State-based level there were monthly decreases across the board in January; this was led by NSW, down 17.1pts (-13.7%) to 107.6. Despite the large fall in January, Business Confidence remains marginally in positive territory above the neutral level of 100. However, Business Confidence has fallen to the same level it was at during the middle of the ‘Delta wave’ in August 2021 (101.5) and is now well below the long-term average of 113.7.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Construction costs rise at fastest pace since 2005

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 9-Feb-22

CoreLogic has warned that residential construction costs are likely to rise further in the March quarter, citing factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions. The firm’s Cordell Construction Cost Index rose by just 1.1 per cent in the final three months of 2021, compared with 3.8 per cent in the September quarter. The index rose by 7.3 per cent in the year to December, its highest annual increase since March 2005. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the big rise in annual construction costs might increase the cost of new homes and renovations, which may in turn put upward pressure on inflation.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreases 1.9pts to 99.9 as Western Australia’s border remains closed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.9pts to 99.9 during the first week of February; it is 11.5pts below the same week a year ago (111.4), and just below the 2022 weekly average of 101.1. Consumer Confidence has decreased 9pts in Western Australia and 14pts in Perth, indicating dissatisfaction with the state’s continuing border closure. Now 23% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 32% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 35% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 21% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 14% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 26% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 33% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA opens door to 2022 rate rise

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that official interest rates could potentially rise before the end of 2022 if the economy continues to perform well. However, he has downplayed suggestions that the cash rate may be increased four times in 2022, arguing that Australia’s inflation rate is still well below that of countries such as the US and the UK. Lowe also said that the unemployment rate could soon fall below four per cent. The Commonwealth Bank still expects the cash rate to be increased in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Lowe keeps nation guessing on rates

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 2-Feb-22

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has downplayed speculation that official interest rates will rise in 2022. Lowe stated that although inflation has increased, it is not yet sustainably within the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. This has been identified as a prerequisite for increasing the cash rate, which was left at a record low of 0.1 per cent on Tuesday. The RBA will also end its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Lowe has forecast that core inflation will peak at 3.25 per cent, compared with 2.6 per cent at present, while he expects the unemployment rate to fall below four per cent later in 2022.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations dropped 0.1% points to 4.8% in December; down from seven year high in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Feb-22

In December 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.8% annually over the next two years, down 0.1% points from the seven-year high reached in November. The small decline ended a record six straight months of increases from June to November. Inflation Expectations are now 0.1% points above the long-term average of 4.7% and 1.2% points higher than in December 2020 (3.6%). A look at Inflation Expectations by socio-economic quintile shows increases across the board since the measure reached a low in August 2020 during Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19. Australians in the highest ‘AB Quintile’ have experienced the largest increase since mid-2020, with their Inflation Expectations rising 1.8% points to 4.1% in December 2021. However, this is still significantly lower than all four other socio-economic quintiles. On a State-based level, Inflation Expectations were highest in two States, with large regional populations led by Tasmania at 5.5% and also well above the national average in Queensland at 5.2%. Queensland is unique as a State with more people living in regional areas than the capital city of Brisbane.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.7pts to 101.8pts as Omicron wave of COVID-19 continues to recede

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Feb-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.7pts to 101.8 during the fourth week of January; however, Consumer Confidence is still 10.3pts below the same week a year ago (112.1), and it is now just above the 2022 weekly average of 101.5. On a State-based level, Consumer Confidence increased in New South Wales (up 6pts) and Western Australia (up 4.5pts) – the week after WA Premier Mark McGowan announced an extension to his State’s border closure – but it was down slightly in Victoria (down 2.6pts) and Queensland (down 0.6pts). Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (up 1ppt expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 15% (up 4ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 8.1pts to 97.9 as Omicron variant surges and there are shortages of PCR tests, Rapid Antigen tests and broader supply chain issues

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jan-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased during the second week of January, down 8.1pts to 97.9 and is now at its lowest since October 2020 during Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19. In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 10.8 pts below the same week a year ago (108.7). The fall is likely related to several factors including the surging ‘Omicron variant’ of COVID-19 which has also led to shortages in PCR tests, Rapid Antigen tests, vaccine dose availability for children aged 5-11 (which began last week), and supply chain issues with shortages of key goods in supermarkets and other retailers. Many Australians have also returned from their holidays and were back at work last week after a positive Consumer Confidence reading to start the year. Consumer Confidence this week was down in all States, except in South Australia – in which Consumer Confidence had already dropped a week ago, and is now below the neutral level of 100 in all States. Driving the decrease were negative movements across the index, with particularly large falls in personal finances compared to a year ago and current buying intentions.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.4 in the leadup to the Holidays

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Dec-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 108.4 on 18/19 December. Consumer Confidence is in line with the 2021 weekly average of 108.1, and it is now 0.6 pts below the same week a year ago (109.0). Consumer Confidence this week was up in New South Wales (+4.8pts) and Victoria, but saw modest drops in the smaller states of Queensland, WA, SA and Tasmania. Now 32% (up 2 ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 16% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 41% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.4pts to 106.0 as Omicron variant emerges in southern Africa

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Dec-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.4pts to 106.0 on 27/28 November; it is now below the 2021 weekly average of 108.1 and 1.5pts lower than the same week a year ago (107.5). Consumer Confidence this week was down in Victoria, Queensland and WA, while increasing slightly in NSW and SA. Now 27% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 29% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 18% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 42% (up 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since early July 2021), while 26% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since early July).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ