ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunges by 11.1pts (-8.7%) to 117.2 after Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide placed in lockdowns

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

In July 2021, Roy Morgan Business Confidence plunged 11.1pts (-8.7%) to 117.2. Despite the fall, Business Confidence is 32.9pts (+39%) higher than a year ago (84.3), and it is 3.3pts above the long-term average of 113.9. Business Confidence has now averaged 123.6 during the first seven months of 2021, the best ever start to a year for the Index. The reading of 117.2 for July is also the highest level of Business Confidence in the mid-Winter month since July 2014 (119.1). Some 59.9% of businesses now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, and 52.3% say the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for July are based on 1,341 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation Expectations increase to 4.1% in July, highest for nearly 2 years since Oct 2019

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

In July 2021, Australians expected inflation of 4.1% annually over the next two years, up 0.1% and the highest Inflation Expectations since October 2019. Inflation Expectations are now up 0.9% points since the pandemic low of 3.2% in August 2020. Inflation Expectations are still 0.6% points below their long-term average of 4.7%, but are now 0.6% points higher than the 2020 monthly average of 3.5% and 0.7% points higher than in July 2020 (3.4%). A look at Inflation Expectations by occupation and employment category compared to a year ago shows increases across the board. Inflation Expectations for employed Australians increased by 0.8% points to 4.0% but still trail those of Australians who are not employed at 4.3%, an increase of 0.6% points from July 2020. Self-employed Australians now have the highest Inflation Expectations of any employment category at 4.4% in July, up 0.9% points since July 202; there has been a similar increase for Australians employed in private industry, with Inflation Expectations of 4.1% (up 0.9% points). However, those in the public service have a different view and their Inflation Expectations have only increased 0.3% points to 3.5%. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations are slightly higher than the national average and are now highest in Queensland and Tasmania at 4.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases slightly to 101.8 as Melbourne & Adelaide lockdowns end

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Aug-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.1pts to 101.8 on July 31/August 1, after lockdowns in Melbourne and Adelaide ended and Australians were advised of vaccination targets to achieve to avoid future lockdowns. Consumer Confidence is well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.3; however, it remains 13.2 points higher than the same week a year ago (88.6). There were mixed fortunes for Consumer Confidence around the country, with increases in Melbourne and Adelaide, while there was a decline in Sydney after the lockdown was extended for another month. Now 26% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 29% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 36% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 32% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops a further 3.6pts to 100.7 as COVID-19 cases numbers remain stubbornly high in NSW, despite lockdown

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.6pts to 100.7 on July 24/25, as daily NSW COVID-19 cases remain high despite the Greater Sydney lockdown. Consumer Confidence continues to remain well below the 2021 weekly average of 110.6; however, it is still 11.7 points higher than the same week a year ago (89.0). Consumer Confidence was down 2.2pts (-2.2%) to 99.3 in Sydney and down 6.8pts (-6.4%) to 99.0 in Melbourne. Consumer Confidence also fell significantly in Brisbane, but it increased slightly in Adelaide as the state continues to record low COVID-19 case numbers. Now 25% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 34% (down 4ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since early October 2020), and 15% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 12% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 27% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020). Meanwhile, 34% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – to put this indicator in negative territory for the first time since mid-October 2020 during Victoria’s second wave.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 5.7pts to 104.3 – its lowest since early November 2020 as lockdown extended in Sydney and Melbourne goes into fifth lockdown

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.7pts to 104.3 on July 17/18, after the Greater Sydney lockdown was extended until at least the end of July and Melbourne entered an unprecedented fifth lockdown late last week. Consumer Confidence is now sitting clearly below the 2021 weekly average of 110.9; however, it is still 13.6 points higher than the same week a year ago (90.7). Now 29% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 15% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 24% (up 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator since late November 2020). Meanwhile, 36% (down 7ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 30% (up 6ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ – an overall swing of 13ppts and the worst result for this question since early November 2020.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.2pts to 110.0 after Government increases support to those in lockdown in NSW

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.2pts to 110.0 on July 10/11, after the Federal Government announced an increase in support to those impacted by the lockdown in Sydney. Consumer Confidence is now sitting just below the 2021 weekly average of 111.2; however, it remains 18.4 points higher than the same week a year ago (91.6). Now 27% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 39% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (down 1 ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 17% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 18% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 43% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment and under-employment soar in Queensland during the pandemic but are relatively unchanged in NSW & Victoria

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-21

A special analysis of Roy Morgan’s latest unemployment estimates by State during the June 2021 quarter compared to the December 2019 quarter (prior to the pandemic), shows significant changes in two States. Queensland appears as the big ‘loser’ of the COVID-19 pandemic so far; total unemployment and under-employment is now at 23.5% of the workforce, an increase of 6.6% points since the December 2019 quarter – and now clearly higher than any other State. In contrast, South Australia has handled the pandemic better than any other state on the employment front, with total unemployment and under-employment now at 17.4% of the workforce and below the national average – a decline of 6.5% points on the December 2019 quarter. South Australia has had fewer days in lockdown of any State and is the only mainland State not to experience a lockdown so far during 2021. However, despite spending more time in lockdown than the other States, the lowest unemployment and under-employment is again to be found in the two largest States. New South Wales had the lowest unemployment and under-employment of any State at 16.5% of the workforce in the June 2021quarter, an increase of 1.3% points, while Victoria was second at 17.1% (up 0.1% points). down 0.4% points on late 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 4.4pts to 107.8 after multiple major Australian cities placed into lockdown

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Jul-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.4pts to 107.8 on July 3/4, after multiple Australian cities were concurrently placed under lockdown. Consumer Confidence plunged in Sydney (down 10pts) and Brisbane (down 8.7pts) and is now sitting below the 2021 weekly average of 111.2; however, it remains 15.7 points higher than the same week a year ago (92.1). Now 27% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 16% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 19% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 41% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Employment surge turns up heat on rates

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Tom Dusevic
The Australian – Page: 4 : 6-Jul-21

Further indications that the Australian economy is continuing to strengthen may prompt the Reserve Bank to increase the cash rate earlier than expected. There was three per cent growth in job advertisements during June, according to data from the ANZ Bank, and the number of job ads is now 39.1 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, revised data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail spending increased by 0.4 per cent in May and 7.7 per cent over the year to May. The COVID-19 lockdown in Greater Sydney is tipped to hit retail sales for June, although economists expect any impact to be short-lived.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Australian unemployment drops to 9.4% in June – before three States enforce COVID lockdowns

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-21

The latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows that 1.39 million Australians were unemployed in June, down 99,000 on May, for an unemployment rate of 9.4%. The workforce in June was 14,768,000 – comprised of 13,374,000 employed Australians (an increase of 305,000) and 1,394,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (up 99,000). In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.26 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) were underemployed – working part-time but looking for more work. This was unchanged from May. In total, 2.65 million Australians (17.9% of the workforce) were either unemployed or underemployed in June, a drop of 98,000 on May. The decrease was driven by the fall in unemployment. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.4% for June is more than 4% points higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2021 of 5.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS