ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Economy gets caffeine hit as spending soars

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 22-Apr-21

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales increased by 1.4 per cent nationwide in March, after falling by 0.8 per cent in February. Retail sales grew by 5.5 per cent in Western Australia and four per cent in Victoria, with both states having been affected by snap COVID-19 lockdowns in February. Consumer spending totalled $30.7bn overall in March, which is 10.6 per cent above pre-pandemic levels. The growth in retail sales has been driven by service-oriented businesses such as cafes and restaurants.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.0

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Apr-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.1pts to 114.0 on the weekend of April 17/18. Consumer Confidence has remained well above the 2021 weekly average of 110.9, and it is now 29.8pts higher than the same week a year ago (84.2). Now 27% (down 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 25% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 39% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 13% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 23% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since March 1, 2020), while 15% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since October 2010). Meanwhile, 44% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 24% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Funds fall as super savers hit by Covid

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Anthony Keane
The Australian – Page: 20 : 9-Apr-21

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that some of the nation’s largest superannuation funds recorded overall growth in members in 2019-20. However, seven out of 10 super funds had a net loss of members during the financial year, particularly retail funds. The federal government’s early access scheme contributed to the closure of some super accounts, but Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia CEO Martin Fahy says the main factor was the federal government’s policy of consolidating accounts with low balances.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, THE ASSOCIATION OF SUPERANNUATION FUNDS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Building approvals bounce back on HomeBuilder

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 1-Apr-21

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that approvals for stand-alone homes increased by nearly 14 per cent month-on-month in February, to 14,072 in seasonally adjusted terms. Approvals for apartments and townhouses increased by 49 per cent to 5,350; however, this followed a 39 per cent fall in January. Economists say the federal government’s HomeBuilder scheme has been a major catalyst for the strong demand for housing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mine export surge holds up economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith, John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Mar-21

The federal government expects the value of Australia’s resources and energy exports to top $296bn in 2020-21, after a record $291bn in the previous financial year. The surge in export earnings will be driven by iron ore; the Department of Industry, Science, Energy & Resources now expects iron ore earnings to total $136bn, compared with its forecast in December of $123bn for the financial year. However, exports of LNG, thermal coal and coking coal are forecast to be lower in 2020-21. The record resources and energy exports will boost the Budget bottom line, with the full-year deficit now expected to be $150bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE, ENERGY AND RESOURCES

Record trade surplus adds to recovery

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 5-Mar-21

Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $10.2bn in January, compared with market expectations of just $8.3bn. Strong growth in the resources sector’s exports was a key driver of the record trade surplus; the value of iron ore exports rose by 14.2 per cent month-on-month to $16.1bn, while LNG and coal exports rose by 7.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg notes that in addition to growth in iron ore export volumes in January, the price of the steel input remains well above the Budget forecast of just $US55 a tonne free on board.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

National cost of pandemic response to reach $327bn over five years

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Mar-21

The Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that the combined net debt of Australia’s three levels of government will blow out to almost $1.3tn in the five years to 2024. Federal, state and local governments are forecast to collectively spend some $327bn on COVID-19 measures over the five-year period. The independent budget watchdog now expects the national net operating balance across all levels of government in 2020-21 to be a deficit of 11.1 per cent of GDP; it had previously forecast a surplus of 1.7 per cent of GDP for the current financial year.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET OFFICE

Inflation Expectations increase to 3.7% in February – higher in Country Regions than Capital Cities

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Mar-21

In February, Australians expected inflation of 3.7% annually over the next two years, up 0.1% points on January, and the highest since February and March 2020 (4.0% for both). Inflation Expectations are now 1% point below their long-term average of 4.7%. Inflation Expectations have now increased by 0.5% points in the last six months, the fastest increase for the index since late 2016/early 2017 when the index increased by 0.6% points in only two months. Inflation Expectations are higher in Country Regions of Australia (4%) than in the Capital Cities (3.5%) and this is borne out in each mainland State. The largest gap of 1% point is within South Australia with Inflation Expectations of 4.4% in Country SA (the highest figure for any area) compared to only 3.4% in Adelaide. The next largest gap of 0.8% points is within Western Australia, with Inflation Expectations of 4% in Country WA compared to only 3.2% in Perth – the lowest figure for any Capital City. In both Victoria and Queensland there is a gap of 0.6% points between Country Regions and the respective Capital Cities. Inflation Expectations are 4.2% in Country Victoria compared to 3.6% in Melbourne and 3.9% in Country Queensland compared to only 3.3% in Brisbane. The smallest gap of only 0.3% points between the two areas is in NSW. Country NSW has Inflation Expectations of 4% compared to 3.7% in Sydney and in-line with the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence declines 1.5pts to 109.9 during Victoria’s 5 day lockdown and border closures

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Feb-21

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.5pts to 109.9 on February 13/14. Consumer Confidence is now 0.5 points below the 2021 weekly average of 110.4, yet remains 0.8pts higher than the same week a year ago (109.1). Now 25% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 27% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 37% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 14% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 20% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 42% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 25% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Smaller funds hit in super grab

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Lachlan Moffet Gray
The Australian – Page: 13 & 17 : 9-Feb-21

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority shows that a total of $36.4bn was withdrawn from superannuation funds via the federal government’s early access scheme. This was well below the Treasury’s initial forecast of more than $42bn. Members of Australian­Super withdrew more than $5bn in total, although this accounts for just 2.5 per cent of the industry giant’s assets. In contrast, some $21.18m was withdrawn from the Grosvenor Pirie Master Superannuation Fund, which equates to 14 per cent of its asset base.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY,AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY,AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD,GROSVENOR PIRIE MASTER SUPERANNUATION FUND