ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Covid laggards beat Aussies to top of the class for economic performance

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 6 : 21-Dec-20

Data from the OECD shows that Australia’s real GDP contracted by 4.2 per cent over the first nine months of 2020. In contrast, real GDP in the US and Brazil declined by just 3.5 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively during this period, despite the fact that they have been hit much harder by COVID-19 case numbers and deaths. The economies of many countries also rebounded more quickly in the September quarter than Australia, despite having been hit harder in the June quarter. Elliot Clarke of Westpac attributes this to Australia’s tougher lockdown restrictions and the second wave in Victoria.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.9pts to 111.2 as Australians become more confident about their personal finances

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Dec-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 1.9pts to 111.2 on December 12/13. It is now 15.4pts above the 2020 weekly average of 95.8 and 3.2pts higher than a year ago (108.0). This is the highest Consumer Confidence has been since Melbourne Cup weekend in 2019 (113.5). Now 27% (up 3ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 28% (down 3ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 14/15). In addition, 41% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since February 15/16), and 15% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 19% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months (the highest figure for this indicator since March), while 20% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since November 2010). Meanwhile, 43% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the equal highest figure for this indicator since February 8/9), while 25% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator for nine months).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Iron ore fear tax helps to boost budget

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Original article by Ronald Mizen
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 14-Dec-20

The federal government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook will reflect the surge in the price of iron ore since it handed down the Budget just two months ago. Its forecasts were based on an iron ore price of just $US55 per tonne free-on-board; the steel input is currently fetching around $US152 per tonne free-on-board, and the spot price has reached a seven-year high. Meanwhile, Deloitte Access Economics now expects 2020-21 GDP to be $33bn higher than had been forecast in the Budget, while the firm says the underlying cash deficit could be up to $3bn better than had been expected in October.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Workers in private sector turn their backs on unions

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Original article by Ewin Hannan, Stephen Lunn
The Weekend Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Dec-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that just 9.2 per cent of workers in the private sector are now members of unions, down from 12.1 per cent in 2014. In percentage terms, union membership in the public sector has fallen from 39.6 per cent to 36.8 per cent in the last six years; however, the number of union members has actually risen from 570,00 to 710,000 over this period. The ABS figures also show that casual workers were the hardest hit during the downturn in the labour market in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 109.3 as more Australians say now is a good time to buy major household items

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Dec-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 109.3 on December 5/6. It is now 13.8pts above the 2020 weekly average of 95.5 and 0.3pts higher than a year ago (109.0). This is the first time Consumer Confidence has been higher than a year ago since June 2019. Now 24% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 31% (also unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 13% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator since January 11/12. Some 17% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 21% (down 2ppts), expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since March 2013). Meanwhile, 43% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator since February 8/9), while 25% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the equal lowest figure for this indicator for nine months).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

House prices on track for record high by February

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Original article by Ingrid Fuary-Wagner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Dec-20

Data from CoreLogic shows that residential property prices rose by 0.8 per cent nationwide in November. House prices increased by 0.4 per cent month-on-month in Sydney, while Melbourne’s housing market recorded 0.7 per cent growth following a decline in October. Tim Lawless of CoreLogic says the housing market could be on track to recover from the coronavirus-induced downturn by January or February, assuming the current growth momentum is sustained.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3pts to 107.5 as confidence grows about Australia’s economic performance over the next year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Dec-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3pts to 107.5 on November 28/29. It is now 12.3pts above the 2020 weekly average of 95.2 and only 0.6pts lower than a year ago (108.1). Now 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 31% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. In addition, 38% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 15% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Some 17% (up 3ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 23% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2019). Meanwhile, 41% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 25% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence up 10.4pts to 109.1 in November – Confidence is now above 100 in four States – NSW, QLD, WA & SA

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Nov-20

In November 2020 Roy Morgan Business Confidence jumped 10.4pts (+10.5%) to 109.1, the highest monthly reading since September 2019 (110.6). Business Confidence has now increased by a record 23.5pts (+27.5%) over the last two months. It is now 0.7pts higher than in November 2019 (108.4), but still 4.2pts below the long-term average of 113.3. An increasing majority of businesses, 57.9% (up 5.5ppts), said the next 12 months is a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, the highest figure for this indicator since January 2014. On a State-based level Business Confidence is now in positive territory above 100 in four States. Confidence is highest in South Australia at 120.2 although it should be noted most interviewing was completed before the brief State-wide shutdown. Business Confidence is also above average in Western Australia (up 6pts to 114.4), New South Wales (up 8.4pts to 113.8) and jumped strongly in Queensland to 109.3 (up 18.8pts). However, Business Confidence in Victoria (97.8) and Tasmania (88.9) is now well below the national average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

HILDA report shows home ownership sliding, incomes falling and inequality rising

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Original article by Rod Myer
The New Daily – Page: Online : 20-Nov-20

The Melbourne Institute’s latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) report shows that the nation’s average household assets increased by 64 per cent to $1.37 million between 2002 and 2018. However, average household debt rose by 104 per cent to $213,496 over this period. The HILDA survey also found that the proportion of Australians with a mortgage rose from 33.8 per cent to 36.3 per cent, although home ownership has declined from 68.1 per cent in 2002 to 63.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ABS October unemployment estimate counts 134,000 Australians working zero hours in October for economic reasons as employed

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Nov-20

The ABS unemployment estimate for October 2020 claims 960,900 Australians were unemployed (7.0% of the workforce), up 0.1% points on September 2020. However, the ABS claim the participation rate has dropped from 66% in March to 65.8% in October. If the ABS participation rate was steady at 66% there would be an extra 60,000 people in the workforce now and a total of 1.03 million unemployed. In addition, within the ABS employment release for hours worked it notes that 133,800 Australians the ABS count as employed worked zero hours in October for economic reasons. If these non-workers are added the adjusted ABS unemployment estimate is 1.16 million – an unemployment rate of 8.4%. Combined with the ABS under-employment estimate of 1.43 million that would be 2.59 million Australians unemployed or under-employed in October – 18.8% of the Australian workforce. This ‘adjusted’ ABS estimate is significantly closer to Roy Morgan’s unemployment & under-employment estimate of 22.2% for October released two weeks ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS