ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 4.5 pts to 93.0 after COVID-19 cases surge in Melbourne

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-Jul-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 4.5pts to 93.0 in the week to 27/28 June, and is now at its lowest since May 23/24 (92.7). Consumer Confidence is 25.9pts lower than a year ago (118.9) and 2.1pts below the 2020 weekly average of 95.1. Now 21% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator since May 9/10), while 35% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 34% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 25/26), and 19% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 7% (down 3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 45% (up 5ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 36% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wage growth tipped to crash as job market struggles

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: Online : 24-Jun-20

ANZ Bank economists Catherine Birch and Bansi Madhavani forecast that Australia’s nominal wage growth will slow to a record low of just 0.7 per cent in the first half of 2021. They warn that wages growth could fall to around zero during some quarters, and note that Australia had lower growth in wages than the US and New Zealand prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Birch and Madhavani add that the unemployment rate is artificially low due to the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Young and lowly paid most vulnerable: RBA

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 24-Jun-20

Research from the Reserve Bank of Australia has found that most households had sufficient wealth at the onset of the coronavirus-induced recession to ride out a temporary fall in income. However, only about half of younger Australians had enough liquid assets such as savings to pay their expenses for three months. A similar percentage of workers in sectors that were hardest hit by coronavirus lockdown measures had limited capacity to meet their expenses at the start of the recession. The RBA research is based of the findings of the Household and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey in 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence unchanged at 97.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 97.5 in the week to 21 June, although weakness was seen in three sub-indices compared to just one in the previous reading. Now 23% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 36% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 35% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 18% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 10% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 31% (down 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Official ABS May jobless rate out today – will anyone believe figure?

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 18-Jun-20

Economist Saul Eslake says the May jobless rate would be nearer 13 per cent if those on JobSeeker and the youth allowance were counted as unemployed. Gary Morgan, the executive chairman of Roy Morgan, who conduct their own unemployment survey, says the headline ABS jobless figure is "phony" and the government needs to revise definitions. He says the current definitions were made up after the Second World War, and things have changed a lot. Morgan notes that there are now far more women and part-time workers in the workforce, and people change jobs more. Record uncertainty about the job market and doubts over the relevance of the ‘official’ ABS unemployment rate have prompted calls for more information on the number of welfare recipients and a rethink of how ‘unemployed’ is defined. ABS forecasts for the May unemployment rate will be released on 18 June.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 97.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.5% to 97.5 in the week to 14 June, after pausing the week before. Now 24% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 35% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 38% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 9% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 37% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ remained unchanged at 3.2%. The weekly reading increased 0.2pts to 3.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations reach an all-time low in May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Jun-20

In May, Australians expected inflation of 3.3% annually over the next two years, down 0.3% points on April and 0.7% points on the pre-COVID period of February 2020. Analysing the different Inflation Expectations by home ownership status shows declines across the board over the last few months. The sharpest decreases in Inflation Expectations were for renters, down 1.0% point from February to 3.6% in May. However, renters still recorded the highest expectations for inflation compared to people who own their homes outright and those who are paying off their homes. Individuals who own their homes outright reported an Inflation Expectation of 3.3% in May, down 0.5% points on February; and mortgagors paying off their homes reported Inflation Expectations of only 2.9%, down 0.8% points on pre-pandemic February. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says with Australia entering a recession, it is not surprising to see marked declines in Inflation Expectations over the last few months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

COVID-19 restrictions spark a record fall in workers’ pay

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 12-Jun-20

Wages growth fell by 0.7 per cent in the year to June, according to the Melbourne Institute’s latest monthly survey of workers. It is the first time there has been negative growth in pay since the early 2000s. Sam Tsiaplias of the Melbourne Institute notes that wages growth has been subdued for some years, and the economic impact of the pandemic is likely to put more downward pressure on wages. The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which predates the coronavirus lockdown, shows that its wage price index rose by 2.1 per cent in the year to March.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence ends record nine week run, down 1.3pts to 97.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.3% to 97.0 in the week to 7 June, after a nine-week run of consecutive gains. Now 22% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 34% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 9% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 37% (down 5ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ fell 0.1ppt to 3.2%. The weekly reading remained unchanged at 3.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Price rises lift Port Hedland iron ore exports

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: Online : 9-Jun-20

Data from the Pilbara Ports Authority shows that iron ore shipments via Port Hedland rose by four per cent year-on-year in May, to 47.8 million tonnes. Australian iron ore producers benefited from a rally in the price of the steel input during May, amid a downturn in stockpiles at Chinese ports as steel mills resumed production. They will also benefit from a court-ordered closure of Vale’s Itabira mining hub due to a coronavirus outbreak. Vale has maintained its revised full-year production guidance of 310-330 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
PILBARA PORTS AUTHORITY, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, VALE SA