ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

In April Business Confidence plunged to record low of 76.9 but starting to improve

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-May-20

In April 2020 Roy Morgan Business Confidence was down 18.2pts (-19.1%) to 76.9 – plunging to a second consecutive record monthly low. Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says "Business Confidence in April continued in a steep negative direction following when it began plunging in late March. The large drop followed the introduction of strict social distancing and self-isolation directives from the Federal and State Governments that persisted throughout the month of April. The good news is that Business Confidence bottomed in the first half of the month and has since improved. For the first half of April Business Confidence averaged only 69.3, similar to its rating for late March of 71.4. Since this low-point the index has improved and averaged 82.0 during the second half of April as Australia ‘flattened the curve’ of new COVID-19 infections."

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Trade surplus hits $10.6b thanks to iron ore, coal

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 8-May-20

Official data shows that Australia has posted a record trade surplus of $10.6bn for March; the result was driven by strong growth in exports, particularly to China. There was a 33 per cent increase in iron ore exports to China, as one of Australia’s key trading partners began to ease coronavirus restrictions; analysts also note that iron ore supply in February was disrupted by cyclone Damien. Meanwhile, gold exports rose by 22.5 per cent in March, while coal and LNG shipments also rose. Economists had expected a trade surplus of just $6.4bn.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for fifth straight week, up 4.5pts to 89.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-May-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 5.3% to 89.5 in the week to 3 May. Now 23% (up 4ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 39% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 36% (up 6ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 21% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 8% (up 2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 29% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 45% (up 7ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ fell 0.3ppt to 3.4%. The weekly reading fell to 3.2% from 3.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ad spend back 10.6% in March, but newspaper bookings soar 30.2% in response to COVID-19

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Original article by Brittney Rigby
Mumbrella – Page: Online : 5-May-20

The media agency-funded advertising expenditure market fell by 10.6 per cent in March, according to Standard Media Index, although newspaper bookings rose 30.2 per cent in response to COVID-19. The full extent of the impact of COVID-19 on advertising expenditure and marketing budgets is yet to be seen, and SMI AUNZ managing director Jane Ractliffe is tipping a decline of around 30 per cent in media agency bookings in April for both Australia and New Zealand.

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SMI MEDIA INCORPORATED

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows 2.16 million Australians were unemployed (15.3% of the workforce) with an additional 1.32 million (9.4%) under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-May-20

Roy Morgan’s unemployment measure for April shows that in total a massive 3.5 million (24.7%) Australians are now either unemployed or under-employed. This is 439,000 fewer than the 3.92 million (27.4%) during the last two weeks of March (March 20-31, 2020), immediately before the Federal Government’s JobKeeper program was announced. Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 15.3% for April is now almost three times higher than the current ABS estimate for March 2020 of 5.2%. The ABS figure for March was based on interviews conducted in reference to early March (pre shut-downs) and did not include data related to the situation in late March (post shut-downs).

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Good news and bad debt

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Original article by Terry McCrann
Sunday Herald Sun – Page: 63 : 3-May-20

The advice from Australian Banking Association CEO Anna Bligh that "so far" more than 320,000 home loan borrowers and 170,000 businesses have had loan repayments deferred is a mix of ‘good’ news and ‘bad’ news. Clearly the numbers who need repayments deferred "will increase". Some "good news" for the government is Roy Morgan’s April estimate of Australia’s unemployed and under-employed, down 439,000 on the last 2 weeks in March – however, it only dropped because of the government’s JobKeeper scheme. If JobKeeper numbers were added to those who are unemployed and under-employed then "real joblessness" is probably around a third of the workforce, with not one person from the public sector ‘out-of-work’. Even with Australian banks proactively playing their part the post-virus reality is not going to be "a walk in the park" – assuming it is allowed!

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AUSTRALIAN BANKING ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Aussie workers among highest taxed in OECD

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Original article by Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-May-20

New figures show that workers in OECD member nations had an average income tax rate of 15.8 per cent in 2019. However, Australian workers on the average wage paid an income tax rate of 23.6 per cent. Denmark, Iceland and Belgium were the only OECD nations that had a higher average income tax rate. Grant Wardell-Johnson of KPMG notes that personal income tax accounts for nearly half of Australia’s tax base.

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ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Government payments outweigh wage slump

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 29-Apr-20

New figures from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia highlight the impact of the coronavirus on the labour market. Its analysis shows that there has been a 50 per cent increase in the number of CBA bank accounts that are receiving JobSeeker payments. Senior economist Gareth Aird says the increase in government benefits that have been paid since the onset of the pandemic has been greater than the fall in wages and salaries paid into CBA accounts to date. Meanwhile, CBA expects the savings rate to rise significantly in the June quarter.

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COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for fourth straight week, up 0.8pts to 85.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1% to 85.0 in the week to 26 April, although the gain was much smaller than over the prior three weeks. Now 19% (down 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 40% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 30% (down 6ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 22% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 6% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 48% (down 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 25% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (down 9ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ fell 0.1ppt to 3.7%. The weekly reading bumped to 3.6% from 3.1%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation to rise ahead of plunge

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 28-Apr-20

The travel and accommodation sector is likely to be among the hardest hit when inflation data for the March quarter is released on 29 April. The inflation figures will reflect the impact of the bushfires and the early stages of the coronavirus crisis. The market consensus is for a headline inflation rate of 1.9 per cent for the year to March, while the Commonwealth Bank has forecast that inflation will reach two per cent for the first time since mid-2018. However, economists generally expect a negative inflation rate in the June quarter, a view shared by Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA