ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

COVID-19 restrictions spark a record fall in workers’ pay

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 12-Jun-20

Wages growth fell by 0.7 per cent in the year to June, according to the Melbourne Institute’s latest monthly survey of workers. It is the first time there has been negative growth in pay since the early 2000s. Sam Tsiaplias of the Melbourne Institute notes that wages growth has been subdued for some years, and the economic impact of the pandemic is likely to put more downward pressure on wages. The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which predates the coronavirus lockdown, shows that its wage price index rose by 2.1 per cent in the year to March.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence ends record nine week run, down 1.3pts to 97.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.3% to 97.0 in the week to 7 June, after a nine-week run of consecutive gains. Now 22% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 34% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Just 9% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 37% (down 5ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 35% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ fell 0.1ppt to 3.2%. The weekly reading remained unchanged at 3.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Price rises lift Port Hedland iron ore exports

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: Online : 9-Jun-20

Data from the Pilbara Ports Authority shows that iron ore shipments via Port Hedland rose by four per cent year-on-year in May, to 47.8 million tonnes. Australian iron ore producers benefited from a rally in the price of the steel input during May, amid a downturn in stockpiles at Chinese ports as steel mills resumed production. They will also benefit from a court-ordered closure of Vale’s Itabira mining hub due to a coronavirus outbreak. Vale has maintained its revised full-year production guidance of 310-330 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
PILBARA PORTS AUTHORITY, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ATLAS IRON LIMITED, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, VALE SA

China turning off the cash tap

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 9-Jun-20

A report produced by KPMG and the University of Sydney shows that Chinese investment in Australia fell to a 12-year in 2019. Chinese investment fell by 60 per cent to $3.4bn in total, including the acquisition of Bellamy’s Australia for $1.5bn. The report also shows that China-based investors made just 42 deals in Australia during 2019, compared with 74 in 2018. The report covers completed deals worth more than $US5m. Doug Ferguson of KPMG says Chinese investment in Australia is likely to continue to fall in 2020.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Business Confidence jumps in May, up 13pts to 89.9 – highest in Western Australia & South Australia

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jun-20

In May 2020 Roy Morgan Business Confidence was up 13pts (+16.7%) to 89.9 and recovering significantly from the record low reached in April. Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says: "For the first time in 2020 a majority of 50.5% of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ this time next year. The turnaround has been quickest in SA & WA. However, for the Australian economy to really get moving, the Governments of NSW and Victoria must improve their low Business Confidence by encouraging businesses to invest and seek opportunities for growth in the year ahead."

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Worst slump in history decimates retailing

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 4 : 5-Jun-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail turnover fell by an unprecedented 17.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms during April. Clothing and footwear sales fell by 50 per cent as coronavirus lockdown restrictions took effect, while turnover at cafes and restaurants was down 35 per cent. Food retailers’ sales fell by 17 per cent after being boosted by panic buying in March. Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra says the worst may not be over for retailers, given that the economy is officially in recession and the unemployment rate is set to rise in coming months.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION

2.09 million Australians unemployed in May, down 69,000 on April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jun-20

In May 14.8% of the workforce (2.09 million Australians) were unemployed and 9.7% (1.37 million) were under-employed. This is a total of 3.46 million (24.5%) unemployed or under-employed as Australia begins to open up, according to the latest Roy Morgan employment estimates – obviously an under-estimation as 3.5 million are currently subsidised on JobKeeper. Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says: "Australia has entered its first recession for three decades and a quarter of the Australian workforce is unemployed or under-employed. To emerge from recession quickly businesses and unions must work together to forge sensible and equitable solutions that encourage employers to hire new workers. A Roy Morgan survey this week showed the Federal Court decision to award extra entitlements to certain casual employees will effect up to 794,000 Australian businesses. 567,000 businesses say they will be deterred from hiring casual employees and 123,000 say the decision will ‘force them to close’. This shows if businesses and unions don’t work together hundreds of thousands of Australians will struggle to find new jobs."

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Depth of downturn less than expected

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 3-Jun-20

Australia has recorded a trade surplus of $19.2bn for the March quarter, and a current account surplus of $8.4bn. The result was driven by strong growth in export volumes and a fall in imports due to the impact of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the median forecast of economists is for GDP growth to have contracted by 0.4 per cent in the quarter, with official data to be released on 3 June. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has suggested that the coronavirus-induced economic downturn may prove be less severe than initially expected.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for ninth straight week, up 5.6pts to 98.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jun-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 6% to 98.3 in the week to 31 May. The nine-week run is the most extended run of consecutive gains since the index changed to a weekly format in 2008. Now 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 36% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 38% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, and 17% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. However, just 10% (up 4ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 42% (down 6ppts) expect ‘bad times’. In addition, 42% (up 7ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 34% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ remained unchanged at 3.3%. The weekly reading decreased to 3.1% from 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia could avoid technical recession fate

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 1-Jun-20

Most economists expect GDP data to be released on 3 June will show that the Australian economy contracted in the March quarter. However, five of the 24 economists polled by Bloomberg believe that Australia recorded positive GDP growth for the period, despite the impact of summer bushfires and the coronavirus pandemic. Phil Odonaghoe of Deutsche Bank expects the economy to avoid a technical recession, although David Plank of the ANZ Bank contends that this is moot given that nearly 20 per cent of Australians are unemployed or underemployed.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ