ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australia’s economy beats expectations ahead of bushfire, coronavirus impacts

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Original article by Michael Janda
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 5-Mar-20

Official data shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. The general consensus of economists was for quarterly growth of 0.3-0.4 per cent and annual growth of two per cent. However, the full impact of the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak will not be felt until GDP data for the first quarter of 2020 is released. Meanwhile, overall domestic demand increased by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter, while business investment and resident construction fell. Sarah Hunter of BIS Oxford Economics says the economy is likely to contract in the March quarter, adding that the risk of a recession has increased.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Coronavirus to hit budget and income growth

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 28-Feb-20

Modelling by Deloitte Access Economics suggests that the coronavirus could see growth in national income fall from 6.4 per cent to just two per cent in the first half of 2020. This would have a $5.9bn impact on the domestic economy, with the tourism and education sectors being particularly hard hit. Meanwhile, economists have downgraded their GDP growth forecasts for the December quarter after data showed that there was a 2.8 per cent decline in capital expenditure during the period. Economists had expected growth of 0.5 per cent.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Part time and casual jobs fuelling the growth of under-employment

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Original article by
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 27-Feb-20

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine appeared on the ABC’s ‘7.30’ program on 26 February to discuss the issue of under-employment in Australia. Research by Roy Morgan shows that 8.7 per cent of the workforce is under-employed, compared with the official ABS figure of 8.5 per cent. Roy Morgan estimates that almost 1.2 million Australians were under-employed in 2019, an increase of nearly 450,000 since 2005. Levine says part-time jobs are growing at a faster rate than full-time jobs, and the economy would benefit from people having extra work if they wanted it. The ABS counts a person as being employed if they work for just one hour a week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreases to 108.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.7% to 108.3 in the week ended 23 February. Current finances fell 4%, while future finances were down 5.2% for a second straight weekly loss. In contrast, current economic conditions gained 2.4%, building on the strong rise of 6.5% in the previous reading; future economic conditions rose 2.7%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex gained 1.7% after declining for two successive weeks. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation expectations much higher among ALP supporters than Liberal, National or Greens supporters

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-20

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.9% annually over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2020. This is a slight decrease of 0.1% on December, but down 0.3% on a year ago. This is the lowest expectation of future price increases to start a year since the series began in 2010, and compares to price expectations of 6.6% annually over the next two years in January 2011. Comparing price expectations by Federal voting intention shows that the highest price expectations are held by those voting for Independents/Others at 4.4% annually over the next two years, equal to those who can’t say who they would vote for (also 4.4%). In terms of supporters of the major parties, ALP supporters expect annual price increases of 4.1% over the next two years which is slightly higher than the national average of 3.9% and significantly higher than both L-NP supporters on 3.5% and Greens supporters on 3.7%. January Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 4,052 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan January unemployment predicted the increase seen yesterday with the ABS results

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-20

The Roy Morgan January unemployment and under-employment result released earlier this week showed an increase in real unemployment to 9.7% in January with over 1.36 million Australians now unemployed (an increase of 1% point from December) and a further 1.23 million (8.7% of the workforce) now under-employed – and now the ABS results have confirmed the upward trend in unemployment. The ABS figures show seasonally adjusted unemployment of 5.3% in January, up 0.2% points from December with 726,000 Australians now looking for a job according to the ABS. The ABS figures show an additional 8.6% of Australians are now under-employed. The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show over 2.5 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) are now looking for a job or looking for more work while the ABS claims a significantly lower figure of around 1.9 million (13.9%). These results suggest the ABS is continuing to under-estimate the level of true workforce labour under-utilisation in Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs market setback rekindles threat of interest rate cut

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Original article by Patrick Commins, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 8 : 21-Feb-20

Ben Jarman of JP Morgan says the latest jobs data will strengthen the case for another official interest rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the economy added 46,200 full-time jobs in January, although this was offset by the loss of 32,700 part-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to a higher-than-expected 5.3 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in December. The labour participation rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 66.1 per cent, and the under-utilisation rate rose to a 19-month high of 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases to 109.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 109.1 in the week ended 16 February, with the bushfires over and Australians going back to business. Consumer Confidence increased and more than reversed last week’s loss, continuing the recent sawtooth pattern. The gains have been a little more than the losses, so the index reached its 2020 high last week. Current finances gained 2%, while future finances were down 0.1%. Current economic conditions gained 6.5% compared to a fall of 4.1% in the previous week, while future economic conditions were flat. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex fell 0.9%, adding to the loss of 5% seen in the previous reading. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations fell by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, while the weekly reading remained stable.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Housing boom to lift economy

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 12-Feb-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 4.4 per cent growth in new home loan approvals in December. This was the biggest monthly increase since September 2016, and well above economists’ expectations of 1.6 per cent growth. Mortgage approvals increased by 14 per cent year-on-year. Factors such as the three official interest rate cuts in 2019 and a relaxation of lending restrictions in April have contributed to increased demand for home loans, with owner-occupiers accounting for much of the growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down a touch to 107.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.6% to 107.8 in the week ended 9 February. Current financial conditions fell 3%, while future financial conditions rose 3.8%. In a similar pattern, the 4.1% fall in current economic conditions did not quite offset the 5.3% rise in future economic conditions. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex fell 5%, to its lowest level since mid- December. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was unchanged at 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ