ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence continues recovery – up 9% to 78.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Jan-20

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was up 9% to 78.2 on the Easter weekend, and now up 20% since a record low of 65.3 two weeks ago. Driving the increase are more Australians saying they expect to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year – up 7% to 32%, while 27% (down 1%) say they expect to be ‘worse off’. This is the only index question in positive territory, however compared with the previous week there were improvements across the other four Consumer Confidence questions. The two weeks of increases follow the Federal Government’s announcement of a $130 billion wage subsidy in late March and shows how important it is to measure sentiment in the Australian economy on a real-time weekly basis rather than over the longer monthly time period.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Covid and the Great Exodus

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 16-Apr-20

Net overseas migration accounted for 63 per cent of Australia’s population growth in the year to September. The nation’s population increased by 371,000 during this period; meanwhile, the federal government’s April 2019 Budget had forecast net overseas migration of 271,000 in 2020. However, data from Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge shows that the number of temporary visa holders fell by 260,000 to 2.17 million in the March quarter. Economist Warren Hogan warns that the decline in net ­migration will have an impact on consumer spending and the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, SYDNEY

Jobless rise to hit 10pc: Treasury

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, James Fernyhough
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 14-Apr-20

The Treasury estimates that the coronavirus pandemic will see unemployment peak at 10 per cent in the June quarter, compared with an official jobless rate of just 5.1 per cent in February. It would be the first time Australia has recorded double-digit unemployment since April 1994. The Treasury’s analysis also concludes that unemployment would have risen to around 15 per cent without the federal government’s JobKeeper scheme. Former AMP CEO Andrew Mohl is among the business leaders who have called for lockdown measures to be progressively wound back, noting that the restrictions are costing the economy some $550m per day in lost GDP.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

Coronavirus data shows job advertisements in freefall

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Original article by Catherine Hanrahan
abc.net.au – Page: Online : 9-Apr-20

Data from job listings group Seek shows that the number of job advertisements has declined by 65 per cent year-on-year due to the coronavirus pandemic. New South Wales has recorded a 72 per cent fall in job listings, ahead of Victoria with a 67 per cent decline. The sport and recreation sector has been the hardest hit, recording a 98 per cent decline in job advertisements. In contrast, job ads in the mining, resources and energy sector have fallen by just 30 per cent.

CORPORATES
SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Extra 1.4 million Australians out of work in wake of COVID-19 pandemic – 3.92 million (27.4% of workforce) now unemployed or under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-20

The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate for the second half of March jumped a staggering 1.4 million to 2.4 million (16.8%) and under-employment increased 374,000 to 1.52 million (10.6%). This means a record high 3.92 million (27.4%) of Australians were either unemployed or under-employed and looking for more work in the second half of March – far more Australians looking for work than was the case during the last recession in 1990/91. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said: "The results from today’s Roy Morgan late March employment and unemployment estimates show the value of timely data closely tracking the employment statuses of Australian workers. In this uncertain times it is vital for Governments and policy-makers dealing with the COVID-19 ‘fallout’ to have the most up-to-date data on the state of the Labour market to make the correct decisions".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces from historical low to 71.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 10.1% to 71.9 in the week to 5 April; this was the biggest gain since the survey shifted to a weekly basis in 2008. Current economic conditions rose by 24.6%, although this subcomponent is still 50% below its level of six weeks ago. Current financial conditions gained 8.8%, while future financial conditions rose 11.4%. The Time to buy a major household item subcomponent gained 17.5%, following a drop of 23.8% previously. The four-week moving average for inflation expectation was stable at 4.1%, but the weekly reading dipped to 4.1% from 4.3%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence hits a record low of 95.1 in March – declines accelerated throughout the month

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Apr-20

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 9.5pts (-9.1%) to a new record low of 95.1 in March 2020, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey; this is more than 4pts below the previous bottom of 99.8 the decade-old index hit in July 2011. Business Confidence is now 11.6pts lower than it was year ago, and 19.8pts below the long-term average of 114.9. Analysing Business Confidence by dividing March into fortnights reveals a tale of two distinct halves. In the first two weeks of the month the index continued its recovery from the summer bushfires and averaged 107.5, an increase of 2.9pts from February. However, this recovery was halted in mid-March, with the index averaging only 71.4 over the last half of the month. It plunged day-by-day through to the end of March as the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic hit Australia and prompted increasing government restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for March are based on 885 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Government unveils new jobs site as economists revise down unemployment forecasts

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Original article by Euan Black
The New Daily – Page: Online : 3-Apr-20

More than 26,000 vacancies have been listed on the federal government’s new Jobs Hub website, and this is expected to top 50,000 in the next week. The site features employment opportunities across a range of industries. The launch of Jobs Hub has coincided with the release of official data showing that the number of job vacancies nationwide fell by 0.1 per cent in February and 2.2 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, Westpac now expects the unemployment rate to peak at nine per cent – rather than its previous forecast of 17 per cent – due to the government’s wage subsidy scheme.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges to 30-year low at 72.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Mar-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell a massive 27.8% to 72.2 in the week ended 12 March. This fall has bought the headline index to just above the all-time lows recorded in 1990, and 17% below the lowest point seen during the global financial crisis (Oct 2008). All sub-components of the survey plunged. Current financial conditions fell 23.9% while future financial conditions dropped 25.8%. The economic conditions subindices were also down sharply, with current economic conditions falling 37.1% and future economic conditions declining by 19.1%. ‘Time to buy a major household item’ fell by 37.2%, but the four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations was stable at 4.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator – Quarterly Update March 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Mar-20

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Financial Wellbeing Indicator shows that the financial wellbeing of Australians improved by 1% year on year, from 59.6 (as a score out of 100) in December 2018 to 60.2 in December 2019. Financial wellbeing improved in the 12 months to December 2019 across most states and territories. However, financial wellbeing declined slightly in Queensland and the NT, and remained constant in NSW. The lack of growth in overall financial wellbeing in NSW can be attributed to a 3.1% fall in ‘resilience for the future’ during 2019. The improvement in national financial wellbeing was despite no change in financial wellbeing in the December 2019 quarter, and was due primarily to an improvement in ‘meeting everyday commitments’, which increased by 3.2% during 2019. ‘Resilience for the future’ – the ability to cope with financial setbacks – is strongly influenced by active saving habits. After steady growth in recent years, resilience declined nationally by 1.9%, from 53.7 in December 2018 to 52.7 in December 2019. This was due primarily to a decline in the number of month’s income in savings that Australians have on hand, weakened by slower deposit growth and subdued improvements in household incomes over the period.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED