ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Tax cuts set to bolster economy

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 6 : 11-Feb-20

Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that taxpayers received an average tax refund of $967 for the 2018-19 financial year. In total, some $6.1bn was returned to working Australians in the form of tax cuts and refunds, largely to those with annual income of $37,000 to $90,000. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg say the income tax cuts are now flowing through to the economy, which is continuing to grow at a time when many other countries are experiencing negative growth.

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AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Business Confidence drops to 9 year low of 101.6 in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Feb-20

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 2.9pts (-2.8%) to a nearly nine-year low of 101.6 in January 2020, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 4.3pts lower than a year ago, and 13.6pts below the long-term average of 115.2. Only 34.5% (down 6.4ppts) of business leaders say their business is ‘better off financially’ compared to a year ago, and 44% (down 6.4ppts) expect their business to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year. Business Confidence is down on a year ago for businesses of all sizes, but the most pronounced decline is for large businesses with 200+ employees, down 18.4pts to 111.2. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for January are based on 923 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Despite everything ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged 0.5% higher to 108.5 in the week ended 2 February, reversing the previous week’s decline. However, it remains well below average. Overall financial conditions were little changed, with offsetting moves in current and future finances. Current economic conditions gained 2.1%, while future economic conditions declined 2.5%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex gained 2.7%, following a decline of 2.4% previously. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was up by 0.1ppt to 4.0%; the weekly reading rose to 4.2%, its highest level since early September.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Rate cut chances tumble on inflation rise

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 30-Jan-20

Official data shows that headline inflation rose 0.7 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 0.5 per cent in the three months to September. The annual inflation rate rose to 1.8 per cent. Factors such as higher prices for fruit, meat and petrol contributed to the increase in the inflation rate. Ben Udy of Capital Economics says the CPI data should ensure that the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves the cash rate on hold in February. The central bank expects core inflation to rise to 1.8 per cent by the end of 2020.

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CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Price expectations much higher for Young Parents than Young Couples with no children

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by 4% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in December. This is a slight increase of 0.1% on expectations in November, but down 0.2% on a year ago. Comparing price expectations by Household Life-Cycle shows that Young Parents expect prices to increase by 4.5% annually over the next two years – higher expectations than that of any other household type. In contrast, Young Couples who have no children expect price increases of only 3.3% per year. Most Household Life-Cycle segments cluster in the middle between these two, around the national average of 4%. Mid-Life Families (4.1%) and Young Singles (4.1%) are slightly higher, Older Households (4%) are right on the national average and Mid-Life Households (3.9%) are slightly below it.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.3% to 108.0 in the week ended 26 January. Current finances fell 0.5%, but this was balanced by a similar increase in future finances. Current economic conditions fell 1.8%, while future economic conditions gained 3.5%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex was down 2.4%, after a gain of 4.7% previously. The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Under-employment up in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,691,000 Australians were employed in December 2019, up 617,000 over the last year. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 367,000 over the last year (to 8,326,000); part-time employment increased by 250,000 (to 4,365,000). The figures also show that 1,205,000 Australians (8.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, down 97,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1%. An additional 1,383,000 Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 205,000 in a year (up 1.1%). In total, 2,588,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 108,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% is higher than the current ABS estimate for November of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says we have seen consistently during recent years that strong growth in employment has not resulted in sustained drops in unemployment and under-employment. This trend continued throughout 2019.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence ended 2019 at an eight-month low of 104.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 3.9pts (-3.6%) to an eight-month low of 104.5 in December 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 7.7pts lower than a year ago, and 10.8pts below the long-term average of 115.3. Only 40.3% (down 4.5ppts) of business leaders expect the Australian economy will have ‘good times’ in 2020, and just 42.2% (down 4.3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years. Meanwhile, Business Confidence was at 106.3 in the December quarter, down 6.8pts on a year ago but virtually unchanged from the March quarter (106.1). The boost given to Business Confidence following the Federal Election in May has well and truly worn off. Business Confidence was up on a year ago in only two States, WA and Tasmania, which now have the highest ratings among the States. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 979 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces to 107.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jan-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1% to 107.3 in the week ended 12 January, recovering a bit more than half the loss seen in the prior survey. Current economic conditions gained 6.1% after a fall of 12.9% in the previous reading, while future economic conditions gained 8.6%. Current finances declined by 5.5%, dropping to its lowest level since June; future finances gained 0.6%, for a third consecutive increase. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was down by 0.1ppt to 3.9%.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ore exports drive trade surplus

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 10-Jan-20

Official data shows that Australia recorded a trade surplus of $5.8bn for November, after the surplus for the previous month was downwardly revised to $4.1bn. The data also shows that resource exports increased by 0.9 per cent in November and by three per cent year-on-year; the monthly figure was bolstered by a 2.1 per cent rise in iron ore exports and one per cent growth in coal shipments. The total value of goods and services exports increased by two per cent to $40.9bn, while the value of imports was down three per cent at $35.1bn.

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AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY