ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreases to 108.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.7% to 108.3 in the week ended 23 February. Current finances fell 4%, while future finances were down 5.2% for a second straight weekly loss. In contrast, current economic conditions gained 2.4%, building on the strong rise of 6.5% in the previous reading; future economic conditions rose 2.7%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex gained 1.7% after declining for two successive weeks. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation expectations much higher among ALP supporters than Liberal, National or Greens supporters

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Feb-20

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.9% annually over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2020. This is a slight decrease of 0.1% on December, but down 0.3% on a year ago. This is the lowest expectation of future price increases to start a year since the series began in 2010, and compares to price expectations of 6.6% annually over the next two years in January 2011. Comparing price expectations by Federal voting intention shows that the highest price expectations are held by those voting for Independents/Others at 4.4% annually over the next two years, equal to those who can’t say who they would vote for (also 4.4%). In terms of supporters of the major parties, ALP supporters expect annual price increases of 4.1% over the next two years which is slightly higher than the national average of 3.9% and significantly higher than both L-NP supporters on 3.5% and Greens supporters on 3.7%. January Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 4,052 Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Roy Morgan January unemployment predicted the increase seen yesterday with the ABS results

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-20

The Roy Morgan January unemployment and under-employment result released earlier this week showed an increase in real unemployment to 9.7% in January with over 1.36 million Australians now unemployed (an increase of 1% point from December) and a further 1.23 million (8.7% of the workforce) now under-employed – and now the ABS results have confirmed the upward trend in unemployment. The ABS figures show seasonally adjusted unemployment of 5.3% in January, up 0.2% points from December with 726,000 Australians now looking for a job according to the ABS. The ABS figures show an additional 8.6% of Australians are now under-employed. The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show over 2.5 million Australians (18.4% of the workforce) are now looking for a job or looking for more work while the ABS claims a significantly lower figure of around 1.9 million (13.9%). These results suggest the ABS is continuing to under-estimate the level of true workforce labour under-utilisation in Australia.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Jobs market setback rekindles threat of interest rate cut

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Original article by Patrick Commins, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 8 : 21-Feb-20

Ben Jarman of JP Morgan says the latest jobs data will strengthen the case for another official interest rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that the economy added 46,200 full-time jobs in January, although this was offset by the loss of 32,700 part-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to a higher-than-expected 5.3 per cent, from 5.1 per cent in December. The labour participation rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 66.1 per cent, and the under-utilisation rate rose to a 19-month high of 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases to 109.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 109.1 in the week ended 16 February, with the bushfires over and Australians going back to business. Consumer Confidence increased and more than reversed last week’s loss, continuing the recent sawtooth pattern. The gains have been a little more than the losses, so the index reached its 2020 high last week. Current finances gained 2%, while future finances were down 0.1%. Current economic conditions gained 6.5% compared to a fall of 4.1% in the previous week, while future economic conditions were flat. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex fell 0.9%, adding to the loss of 5% seen in the previous reading. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations fell by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, while the weekly reading remained stable.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Housing boom to lift economy

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 7 : 12-Feb-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 4.4 per cent growth in new home loan approvals in December. This was the biggest monthly increase since September 2016, and well above economists’ expectations of 1.6 per cent growth. Mortgage approvals increased by 14 per cent year-on-year. Factors such as the three official interest rate cuts in 2019 and a relaxation of lending restrictions in April have contributed to increased demand for home loans, with owner-occupiers accounting for much of the growth.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down a touch to 107.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.6% to 107.8 in the week ended 9 February. Current financial conditions fell 3%, while future financial conditions rose 3.8%. In a similar pattern, the 4.1% fall in current economic conditions did not quite offset the 5.3% rise in future economic conditions. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex fell 5%, to its lowest level since mid- December. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was unchanged at 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Tax cuts set to bolster economy

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 6 : 11-Feb-20

Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that taxpayers received an average tax refund of $967 for the 2018-19 financial year. In total, some $6.1bn was returned to working Australians in the form of tax cuts and refunds, largely to those with annual income of $37,000 to $90,000. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg say the income tax cuts are now flowing through to the economy, which is continuing to grow at a time when many other countries are experiencing negative growth.

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AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Business Confidence drops to 9 year low of 101.6 in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Feb-20

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 2.9pts (-2.8%) to a nearly nine-year low of 101.6 in January 2020, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 4.3pts lower than a year ago, and 13.6pts below the long-term average of 115.2. Only 34.5% (down 6.4ppts) of business leaders say their business is ‘better off financially’ compared to a year ago, and 44% (down 6.4ppts) expect their business to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year. Business Confidence is down on a year ago for businesses of all sizes, but the most pronounced decline is for large businesses with 200+ employees, down 18.4pts to 111.2. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for January are based on 923 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Despite everything ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Feb-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence edged 0.5% higher to 108.5 in the week ended 2 February, reversing the previous week’s decline. However, it remains well below average. Overall financial conditions were little changed, with offsetting moves in current and future finances. Current economic conditions gained 2.1%, while future economic conditions declined 2.5%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex gained 2.7%, following a decline of 2.4% previously. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was up by 0.1ppt to 4.0%; the weekly reading rose to 4.2%, its highest level since early September.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ