ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Rate cut chances tumble on inflation rise

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 30-Jan-20

Official data shows that headline inflation rose 0.7 per cent in the December quarter, compared with 0.5 per cent in the three months to September. The annual inflation rate rose to 1.8 per cent. Factors such as higher prices for fruit, meat and petrol contributed to the increase in the inflation rate. Ben Udy of Capital Economics says the CPI data should ensure that the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves the cash rate on hold in February. The central bank expects core inflation to rise to 1.8 per cent by the end of 2020.

CORPORATES
CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Price expectations much higher for Young Parents than Young Couples with no children

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by 4% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in December. This is a slight increase of 0.1% on expectations in November, but down 0.2% on a year ago. Comparing price expectations by Household Life-Cycle shows that Young Parents expect prices to increase by 4.5% annually over the next two years – higher expectations than that of any other household type. In contrast, Young Couples who have no children expect price increases of only 3.3% per year. Most Household Life-Cycle segments cluster in the middle between these two, around the national average of 4%. Mid-Life Families (4.1%) and Young Singles (4.1%) are slightly higher, Older Households (4%) are right on the national average and Mid-Life Households (3.9%) are slightly below it.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.0

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Jan-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.3% to 108.0 in the week ended 26 January. Current finances fell 0.5%, but this was balanced by a similar increase in future finances. Current economic conditions fell 1.8%, while future economic conditions gained 3.5%. The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex was down 2.4%, after a gain of 4.7% previously. The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Under-employment up in December

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,691,000 Australians were employed in December 2019, up 617,000 over the last year. The rise was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 367,000 over the last year (to 8,326,000); part-time employment increased by 250,000 (to 4,365,000). The figures also show that 1,205,000 Australians (8.7% of the workforce) were unemployed in December, down 97,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was down 1%. An additional 1,383,000 Australians (9.9% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, up 205,000 in a year (up 1.1%). In total, 2,588,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in December, up 108,000 on a year ago. Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% is higher than the current ABS estimate for November of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says we have seen consistently during recent years that strong growth in employment has not resulted in sustained drops in unemployment and under-employment. This trend continued throughout 2019.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence ended 2019 at an eight-month low of 104.5

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Jan-20

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 3.9pts (-3.6%) to an eight-month low of 104.5 in December 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 7.7pts lower than a year ago, and 10.8pts below the long-term average of 115.3. Only 40.3% (down 4.5ppts) of business leaders expect the Australian economy will have ‘good times’ in 2020, and just 42.2% (down 4.3ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years. Meanwhile, Business Confidence was at 106.3 in the December quarter, down 6.8pts on a year ago but virtually unchanged from the March quarter (106.1). The boost given to Business Confidence following the Federal Election in May has well and truly worn off. Business Confidence was up on a year ago in only two States, WA and Tasmania, which now have the highest ratings among the States. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 979 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces to 107.3

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Jan-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1% to 107.3 in the week ended 12 January, recovering a bit more than half the loss seen in the prior survey. Current economic conditions gained 6.1% after a fall of 12.9% in the previous reading, while future economic conditions gained 8.6%. Current finances declined by 5.5%, dropping to its lowest level since June; future finances gained 0.6%, for a third consecutive increase. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was down by 0.1ppt to 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ore exports drive trade surplus

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 10-Jan-20

Official data shows that Australia recorded a trade surplus of $5.8bn for November, after the surplus for the previous month was downwardly revised to $4.1bn. The data also shows that resource exports increased by 0.9 per cent in November and by three per cent year-on-year; the monthly figure was bolstered by a 2.1 per cent rise in iron ore exports and one per cent growth in coal shipments. The total value of goods and services exports increased by two per cent to $40.9bn, while the value of imports was down three per cent at $35.1bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Pundits expect rate cut despite jobs positivity

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 9-Jan-20

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was 1.6 per cent growth in job vacancies in the November quarter, in seasonally adjusted terms. Private sector job vacancies increased by 1.5 per cent, after declining in the two previous quarters. The figures also show that the number of available jobs rose to 239,400 in the year to November, compared with 235,100 in August. However, economics still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate in February.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

High-rises spur surge in building approvals

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 9-Jan-20

New figures show that there was an 11.8 per cent increase in building approvals in November, which was the strongest monthly growth since February. Approvals for high-density housing developments increased by 21 per cent in November, for an annual growth rate of six per cent. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that building approvals data tends to be volatile, but he adds that the latest figures suggest that approvals have begun to stabilise.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, URBAN TASKFORCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Equity boom helps ASX offset fall in IPOs

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 8-Jan-20

The ASX’s latest activity report shows that a total of $66.3bn in capital was raised on the Australian sharemarket in 2019, compared with $98.9bn in 2018. The number of IPOs fell from 132 to just 94 in 2019, amid volatility in the global IPO market and the cancellation of several major floats on the domestic market. Meanwhile, total trades in the ASX’s cash market were 25 per cent higher in the second half of 2019 compared with the previous corresponding period, while the total on-market value traded for the half-year was nine per cent higher than previously.

CORPORATES
ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX