ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falters on bush fires

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Jan-20

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.7% to 106.2 in the week ended 5 January, to its lowest level in more than four years. A drop in confidence at the start of the year is unusual and almost certainly reflects the impact of the catastrophic bush fires over the weekend. ‘Current economic conditions’ were down 12.9%, while ‘future economic conditions’ fell 8.1%; current economic conditions are at their lowest level since the global financial crisis, while sentiment toward the future economic outlook is at its lowest level since 1994. In contrast, ‘current finances’ rose 4%, while ‘future finances’ were up 0.3%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index gained 4.8%, recovering from a fall of 6.4% seen in the last reading of 2019. The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 4.0%, though weekly readings saw a sharp fall, which should result in a weaker reading in the coming week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

New car sales plummet as families curb spending

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 7-Jan-20

Data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries shows that new car sales totalled 1,062,867 in 2019, which is 7.8 per cent lower than previously. Sales fell by 3.8 per cent year-on-year in December, to 84,239. FCAI CEO Tony Weber says the 2019 sales figures reflect a challenging year for the Australian economy, noting that the new car market was affected by factors such as falling house prices, low wages growth and a weaker Australian dollar. The Toyota HiLux was the top-selling vehicle for the year.

CORPORATES
FEDERAL CHAMBER OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES, TOYOTA MOTOR CREDIT CORPORATION

Australia tops LNG exports, worth $49bn

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 7-Jan-20

Data from EnergyQuest shows that Australia exported 77.5 million tonnes of LNG in 2019, overtaking Qatar as the world’s biggest exporter. Qatar had been forecast to export 75 million tonnes in 2019, although EnergyQuest notes that the Middle Eastern nation has yet to release its official export figures. The US exported 34.3 million tonnes of LNG in 2019. Meanwhile, EnergyQuest notes that Australia’s total LNG output capacity is 88 million tonnes at present.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, WESTERN AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIA. NATIONAL OFFSHORE PETROLEUM SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, EQUINOR ASA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Cheaper power to lift big companies

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-Dec-19

Analysis of data from the Australian ­Energy Market Operator shows that wholesale electricity prices in Victoria have fallen by 39 per cent year-on-year in December, and by 36 per cent in New South Wales. South Australia has recorded the smallest fall in wholesale prices, at just three per cent. Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute says electricity prices are likely to fall further in 2020 and 2021. The power costs of heavy electricity users will fall immediately, although the majority of households and small businesses are on supply contracts that are based on annual price changes.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AGL ELECTRICITY (VICTORIA) PTY LTD, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, VICTORIA. ESSENTIAL SERVICES COMMISSION

Economy fear with credit in the doldrums

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Original article by David Rogers, Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 13 & 17 : 24-Dec-19

Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia shows that lending to businesses and property buyers increased by 0.1 per cent in November and 2.3 per cent in the year to November. This is the lowest rate of growth in private sector credit since April 2010. The figures also show that growth in home loans was 0.2 per cent in November and 2.9 per cent year-on-year, while non-housing credit fell by 0.5 per cent in November and 4.9 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Debt down; Australians have never been richer

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-19

Average household wealth increased by $10,698 in the September quarter, to a record $428,573.5 per person. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also shows that the household debt to assets ratio eased from 18.9 times to 18.5 times during the quarter, which coincided with two interest rate cuts and income tax relief. Meanwhile, the household savings rate rose from 2.7 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the three months to September, but growth in consumption fell to 0.1 per cent, compared with 0.4 per cent in the June quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 108.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Dec-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.9% to 108.0 in the week ended 15 December. Current financial conditions fell 1.5%, while future financial conditions gained 3.7%. Current economic conditions rose 1.6%, while future economic conditions were down 1.2%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 6.4% and the four-week moving average of inflation expectations was up 0.1ppt to 4.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 109.0 (corrected)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Dec-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 109.0 in the week ended 8 December – a second straight increase during the early weeks of December. In the run-up to Christmas the good news for retailers is that the ‘time to buy a household item’ index gained 1.9%, building on the previous week’s gain of 5.3% following the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. In addition consumers became more confident about their current personal financial situation with a 1% increase from a week ago, although there was a 3.9% drop in regards to future financial conditions over the next 12 months. Consumers have also become more confident about the performance of the Australian economy going forward with an increase of 3.9% for current economic conditions and an increase of 2.7% for future economic conditions, although both indicators remain below long-term averages. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was down 0.1ppt to 3.9%, as the weekly reading softened to 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 108.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Dec-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 109.0 in the week ended 8 December, continuing the upward momentum of the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1%, while views towards future financial conditions fell 3.9%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rebounded from a four-year low, rising 3.9%; views towards future economic conditions gained 2.7%, but both remain well below average. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index gained 1.9%, building on the previous week’s gain of 5.3%, although it remains well below its long-run average. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations was down 0.1ppt to 3.9%, as the weekly reading softened to 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Slide in wages could risk tax cuts, surplus

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 10-Dec-19

The Wage Price Index growth rate for 2019-20 is forecast to be 2.75 per cent, but wages increased by just 2.2 per cent in the September quarter. Westpac economist Bill Evans expects the federal government to downgrade its wage growth forecast in the mid-year budget update; he warns that this in turn may affect the size of the surplus and the Coalition’s ability to bring forward the second stage of its income tax cuts package. Evans notes that the price of iron ore is trading well above the government’s forecasts, which will help offset any revenue shortfall from slowing wages growth.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE