ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Luxury car sales lift and follow rising house prices

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 13-Sep-19

Luxury car sales rose for the second month in a row in August, while sales for the year to August increased by 0.6 per cent. However, sales of standard cars fell by 10.1 per cent in August. Nonetheless, the increase in luxury car sales for two months in a row, along with a similar increase in Sydney and Melbourne house prices, has sparked hope that the Australian economy might be on the mend, with Commsec chief economist Craig James saying he thinks "the worst is behind us".

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falls to 113.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1% to 113.3 in the week ending 8 September. The fall was accentuated by a sharp decline of 7.1% in the ‘Time to buy a major household item’ sub-index. Current finances fell by 1.2%, the second decline in a row, while future finances gained 1.7%. Both the indices are well above their long term averages. Australians are still wary of the economic outlook, considering both the subindices are below their long terms averages. Inflation expectations were stable at 4% on the four-week moving average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Our income recession is over

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 6-Sep-19

New data shows that real disposable income per capita increased by one per cent in the June quarter and by 2.7 per cent in the year to June. Real disposable income per capita has risen in four consecutive quarters and it is now $59,258, compared with the OECD average of $44,845. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics says the growth in income per capita may not be sustained, given that the iron ore price has retreated from its recent highs.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Surplus may signal new era for dollar

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 4-Sep-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s Richard Grace says the current account is unlikely to remain in surplus, citing the level of the nation’s net income deficit. However, he notes that the net income deficit – which is currently 3.4 per cent of GDP – will improve as superannuation funds increase their offshore holdings. Grace adds that factors such as a gradual reduction in the net income deficit and a structural improvement in the trade balance are likely to boost the Australian dollar over the longer-term.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, EXANTE DATA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA eyes housing rebound as economic growth slows

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 4-Sep-19

The latest national accounts data is expected to show that Australia’s GDP growth slowed to about 1.5 per cent in the year to June, well below the federal government’s May 2019 Budget forecast of 2.25 per cent growth. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that economic growth will improve "gradually"; he notes that although new housing construction activity remains weak, there are signs of an upturn in the established housing market. The central bank’s decision to leave official interest rates on hold in September coincided with the release of data confirming a current account surplus of $5.9bn for the June quarter, the first since the 1970s.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.3% to 114.4 in the week ended 1 September, its second straight weekly gain. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 3.3% after a strong rise in the previous week, but views towards future financial conditions gained 1.3%; both measures are above average. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 2.7%, the fifth consecutive decline, while views towards future economic conditions gained 3.8%; both sub-indices are below average. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index gained 1.7% following a rise of 4% in the previous week, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations rose 0.1ppt to 4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Dark clouds over construction

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 29-Aug-19

Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan has warned that the downturn in Australia’s construction sector will have weighed on GDP growth in the June quarter. The latest GDP data will be released in early September, and analysts have forecast that the economy grew by just 1.2 per cent in the year to June, which would be its lowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. Official data shows that construction activity fell by 3.8 per cent in the June quarter, including a 5.1 per cent decline in residential construction.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 114.1 in the week ended 25 August, pushing the index above its long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 5.9%, taking this measure of sentiment to its highest level since the weekly survey began in 2008; however, views towards future financial conditions fell 3%, reversing the gains of the past two weeks but remaining above average. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 1.4%, the fourth consecutive decline, while future economic conditions had a marginal gain of 0.2%; both indices are below average. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index gained 4%, after falling for three consecutive weeks, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 112.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3% to 112.8 in the week ended 18 August, closing below the long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.2%, and views towards future financial conditions gained 0.6%. However, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 3.8%, and views toward future economic conditions fell 7.9%; both of the economic subindices are now below their respective long-term average. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index fell 1.4%, its third consecutive decline; the four-week moving average for inflation expectations fell 0.1ppt to 3.9%

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations jump to 4.1% in July after RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Aug-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.1% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2019. This is up 0.3% on June, but down 0.2% on July 2018. Inflation Expectations increased in July following back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July. Amongst the generations, Inflation Expectations have fallen most significantly for Baby Boomers and Millennials. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations increased for supporters of all three leading parties. However, Inflation Expectations for electors as a whole are now below those of the general population, at 3.9%. July Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 5,031 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS