ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian reliance on China at record

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 1-Oct-19

Data from the Australian National University shows that China now accounts for 38 per cent of Australia’s total exports, compared with 34 per cent in 2018. The value of the nation’s exports to China during the first seven months of 2019 totalled $84bn, which is about $12bn per month, up from $9.8bn a month in 2018. In contrast, Japan’s share of Australian exports was just 16 per cent in 2018, having peaked at more than 30 per cent in 1976.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, VALE SA

Major banks hit as credit growth stalls

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 1-Oct-19

Official data shows that annual growth in credit fell to an eight-year low of 2.9 per cent in the year to August, after rising by just 0.2 per for the month. Housing credit and business credit also increased by 0.2 per cent in August, with growth of 3.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively for the year to August. Ed Henning of CLSA anticipates a slight improvement in credit growth in coming months, although Chris Read of Morgan Stanley says credit growth is unlikely to rebound in the near-term unless there is an upturn in housing turnover as well as prices.

CORPORATES
CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SWITZER ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, MST MARQUEE, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

RBA chief ready to cut rates again

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 25-Sep-19

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has signalled that the central bank is prepared to further reduce the cash rate if necessary. He has cited factors such as the downward trend in global interest rates and a ‘surprise’ slowdown in the domestic economy, which grew by just 1.4 per cent in the year to June. Lowe’s speech in regional New South Wales has heightened speculation that the RBA will reduce the cash rate to a new low of 0.75 per cent in October. George Tharenou of UBS expects the cash rate to fall to just 0.25 per cent by May.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARMIDALE BUSINESS CHAMBER, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Major household item buying index slumps

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Original article by Michael Mehr
News.com.au – Page: Online : 25-Sep-19

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence data shows that the number of consumers who think now is a good time to buy a major household item has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. ANZ economist Felicity Emmett says this is disappointing given the federal government’s income tax cuts. ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index data is closely monitored by the Reserve Bank, which is widely tipped to reduce the cash rate again in October.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 110.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Sep-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.7% to 110.1 in the week ended 22 September, after losing 3.5% in the previous reading. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1.9% and remain above the long-run average, while views towards future financial conditions gained 1.6%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 3.6%, and views towards future economic conditions gained 1.0%; both subindices remain well below their long-run averages. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index dropped 3.8% and is now at its lowest level in 10 years, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Retailers warn tax cut stimulus effect is months away

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 19-Sep-19

Lower interest rates do not seem to be having a positive impact on retail sales, according to Peter Allen, the CEO of shopping centre owner Scentre Group. Allen told an Australia Israel Chamber of Commerce retail forum in Sydney on 18 September that consumers are seeing rate cuts as a sign the economy is slowing, and that they may need to be more careful with their spending. Daniel Agostinelli, the CEO of footwear retailer Accent Group, said that tax offset payments have not had any positive impact on its sales as yet, while Erica Berthold, the CEO of online fashion retailer The Iconic, said stimulus on its own was not enough to lift sales. Meanwhile, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Index has revealed that consumer confidence declined 3.5 per cent to a two-year low of 109.3 points.

CORPORATES
SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to a two year low at 109.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 3.5% to 109.3 in the week ending 15 September, its lowest level in more than two years. The financial conditions subcomponents dropped sharply, while the economic conditions subindices were also down. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations increased by 0.1ppt to 4.1%, while the ‘Time to buy a household item’ was the only subindex in the positive, eking out a 0.2% gain.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Luxury car sales lift and follow rising house prices

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 13-Sep-19

Luxury car sales rose for the second month in a row in August, while sales for the year to August increased by 0.6 per cent. However, sales of standard cars fell by 10.1 per cent in August. Nonetheless, the increase in luxury car sales for two months in a row, along with a similar increase in Sydney and Melbourne house prices, has sparked hope that the Australian economy might be on the mend, with Commsec chief economist Craig James saying he thinks "the worst is behind us".

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falls to 113.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Sep-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1% to 113.3 in the week ending 8 September. The fall was accentuated by a sharp decline of 7.1% in the ‘Time to buy a major household item’ sub-index. Current finances fell by 1.2%, the second decline in a row, while future finances gained 1.7%. Both the indices are well above their long term averages. Australians are still wary of the economic outlook, considering both the subindices are below their long terms averages. Inflation expectations were stable at 4% on the four-week moving average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Our income recession is over

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 6-Sep-19

New data shows that real disposable income per capita increased by one per cent in the June quarter and by 2.7 per cent in the year to June. Real disposable income per capita has risen in four consecutive quarters and it is now $59,258, compared with the OECD average of $44,845. Chris Richardson of Deloitte Access Economics says the growth in income per capita may not be sustained, given that the iron ore price has retreated from its recent highs.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD