ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Surplus may signal new era for dollar

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 4-Sep-19

The Commonwealth Bank’s Richard Grace says the current account is unlikely to remain in surplus, citing the level of the nation’s net income deficit. However, he notes that the net income deficit – which is currently 3.4 per cent of GDP – will improve as superannuation funds increase their offshore holdings. Grace adds that factors such as a gradual reduction in the net income deficit and a structural improvement in the trade balance are likely to boost the Australian dollar over the longer-term.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, EXANTE DATA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

RBA eyes housing rebound as economic growth slows

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 4-Sep-19

The latest national accounts data is expected to show that Australia’s GDP growth slowed to about 1.5 per cent in the year to June, well below the federal government’s May 2019 Budget forecast of 2.25 per cent growth. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has reiterated that economic growth will improve "gradually"; he notes that although new housing construction activity remains weak, there are signs of an upturn in the established housing market. The central bank’s decision to leave official interest rates on hold in September coincided with the release of data confirming a current account surplus of $5.9bn for the June quarter, the first since the 1970s.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Sep-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.3% to 114.4 in the week ended 1 September, its second straight weekly gain. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 3.3% after a strong rise in the previous week, but views towards future financial conditions gained 1.3%; both measures are above average. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 2.7%, the fifth consecutive decline, while views towards future economic conditions gained 3.8%; both sub-indices are below average. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index gained 1.7% following a rise of 4% in the previous week, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations rose 0.1ppt to 4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Dark clouds over construction

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 29-Aug-19

Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan has warned that the downturn in Australia’s construction sector will have weighed on GDP growth in the June quarter. The latest GDP data will be released in early September, and analysts have forecast that the economy grew by just 1.2 per cent in the year to June, which would be its lowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. Official data shows that construction activity fell by 3.8 per cent in the June quarter, including a 5.1 per cent decline in residential construction.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 114.1 in the week ended 25 August, pushing the index above its long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 5.9%, taking this measure of sentiment to its highest level since the weekly survey began in 2008; however, views towards future financial conditions fell 3%, reversing the gains of the past two weeks but remaining above average. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 1.4%, the fourth consecutive decline, while future economic conditions had a marginal gain of 0.2%; both indices are below average. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index gained 4%, after falling for three consecutive weeks, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 112.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3% to 112.8 in the week ended 18 August, closing below the long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.2%, and views towards future financial conditions gained 0.6%. However, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 3.8%, and views toward future economic conditions fell 7.9%; both of the economic subindices are now below their respective long-term average. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index fell 1.4%, its third consecutive decline; the four-week moving average for inflation expectations fell 0.1ppt to 3.9%

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations jump to 4.1% in July after RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Aug-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.1% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for July 2019. This is up 0.3% on June, but down 0.2% on July 2018. Inflation Expectations increased in July following back-to-back interest rate cuts in June and July. Amongst the generations, Inflation Expectations have fallen most significantly for Baby Boomers and Millennials. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations increased for supporters of all three leading parties. However, Inflation Expectations for electors as a whole are now below those of the general population, at 3.9%. July Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 5,031 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 115.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence eased 0.3% to 115.5 in the week ending 11 August, consolidating at an above average level. Current finances were up by 2.6% for the week, while future finances gained 2.4%. The economic conditions sub-indices were down, with current economic conditions falling 4.3%, closing below its long-term average, while future economic conditions lost 0.3%. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index fell 2.6%, while the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 4.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA lowers GDP, inflation forecasts

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged on 6 August. Central bank governor Philip Lowe again indicated that official interest rates will remain low for some time, and that any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for the unemployment rate and inflation. The inflation rate was 1.6 per cent in the year to June, and the RBA now does not expect it to reach the bottom end of its 2-3 per cent target range until 2021.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Super, massive trade surplus holds up economy

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Aug-19

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says Australia could be set to post its first current account surplus since 1975, following the release of the latest balance of trade data. The nation’s trade surplus rose to a record $8.04bn in June and totalled $19.7bn for the June quarter, which is $5.2bn higher than the March quarter. The result was driven by strong growth in iron ore export volumes and the price of the steel input during the period. Australia’s overall export volumes increased by 1.4 per cent in June, while there was a 3.6 per cent decline in imports.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED