ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 115.5

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence eased 0.3% to 115.5 in the week ending 11 August, consolidating at an above average level. Current finances were up by 2.6% for the week, while future finances gained 2.4%. The economic conditions sub-indices were down, with current economic conditions falling 4.3%, closing below its long-term average, while future economic conditions lost 0.3%. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index fell 2.6%, while the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 4.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA lowers GDP, inflation forecasts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Aug-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2019 from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, after leaving the cash rate unchanged on 6 August. Central bank governor Philip Lowe again indicated that official interest rates will remain low for some time, and that any change in monetary policy will depend on the outlook for the unemployment rate and inflation. The inflation rate was 1.6 per cent in the year to June, and the RBA now does not expect it to reach the bottom end of its 2-3 per cent target range until 2021.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Super, massive trade surplus holds up economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 7-Aug-19

Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans says Australia could be set to post its first current account surplus since 1975, following the release of the latest balance of trade data. The nation’s trade surplus rose to a record $8.04bn in June and totalled $19.7bn for the June quarter, which is $5.2bn higher than the March quarter. The result was driven by strong growth in iron ore export volumes and the price of the steel input during the period. Australia’s overall export volumes increased by 1.4 per cent in June, while there was a 3.6 per cent decline in imports.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips to 115.8

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Aug-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.3% to 115.8 in the week ended 4 August, after two straight weekly gains. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 4.3% and views towards future financial conditions were down 1.9%; however, both components are comfortably above their long-run average. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 6.1%, more than reversing the prior week’s big jump, but views toward future economic conditions gained 3.8%. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index fell 2.6%, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was down 0.1ppt to 4.0%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence down slightly at 114 in July

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-19

In Australia, Business Confidence eased 0.7pts (-0.6%) to 114.0 in July 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence has now averaged 114.4 over the last three months, after an 11.2% jump in May. Business Confidence is now 0.4pts above its level of July 2018, but 1.6pts below its long-term average of 115.6. Now 53.9% (unchanged) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator since April 2018), while 19.8% (up 5.7ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially this time next year. Meanwhile, 49.1% (down 0.4ppts) of businesses expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ over the next year, while 43.2% (up 3.5ppts) expect the economy to have ‘bad times’. However, 48.7% (up 7.5ppts) of businesses say the next year will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while only 38.9% (down 4.5ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

New wage deals push 3pc pay rises

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 2-Aug-19

Data from the Attorney-General’s Department shows that public sector enterprise agreements that were approved in the March quarter included wage increases of 2.4 per cent, while wages growth under private sector agreements was 2.7 per cent. However, the data excludes 29 per cent of new agreements because they featured ‘non-quantifiable’ wage increases. They included enterprise agreements for Woolworths and David Jones employees, which link pay rises to increases in the minimum wage.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, DAVID JONES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BUPA AGED CARE, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED. CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK

Fed cut lifts pressure on RBA board

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 1-Aug-19

Economists suggest that better-than-expected inflation data for the June quarter will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave official interest rates on hold in August. The consumer price index rose 0.6 per cent during the quarter and 1.6 per cent year-on-year. However, inflation remains well below the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and further monetary policy easing is possible later in 2019 if the unemployment rate does not fall. The US Federal Reserve’s August interest rate cut may also force the RBA to act before the end of the year.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence boosted to 118.5

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jul-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% to 118.5 in the week ended 28 July, building on the 0.3% gain in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 0.9%, although this followed a 2.8% jump in the previous week; views towards future financial conditions gained 1.2%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 5.8%, but views toward future economic conditions were flat. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index gained 3.5%, after losing 4.4% previously, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was up 0.1ppt to 4.1%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs on the line as home builds slide

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 31-Jul-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that new housing approvals fell by 1.2 per cent during June and 26 per cent year-on-year. Apartment approvals were 40 per cent lower in June than at the same time in 2018. Matthew Hassan of Westpac expects further weakness in dwelling approvals over the remainder of 2019 and during the first half of 2020. George Tharenou of UBS warns that the downturn in housing approvals could put about 100,000 construction industry jobs at risk.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Aussies no better off since GFC

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 30-Jul-19

The latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics (HILDA) survey shows that average household income in Australia increased by just 3.5 per cent (or $3,156) between 2009 and 2017. Analysis also shows that the median annual income in 2017 was $542 lower than in 2009, while the median income has fallen by $100 since the Coalition was elected in 2013. Meanwhile, the share of households in relative poverty has increased to 10.4 per cent, while the share of households living in absolute poverty has been steady at around four per cent since 2012. Interviewing for the HILDA survey is conducted by Roy Morgan.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS