ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Housing loan growth at decade low as squeeze hits

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 12-Jul-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that housing finance approvals declined by 2.4 per cent in May 2019 and 20.9 per cent in the year to May. Lending to owner occupiers was down 2.7 per cent in May and 18 per cent over the year, while lending to investors fell by 1.7 per cent and 27.8 per cent respectively. However, the monthly figures also show that there was 0.8 per cent growth in housing finance for owner-occupiers who were buying their first home.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS

Inflation Expectations down to 3.8% in June as RBA cuts rates

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jul-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.8% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for June 2019. This is down 0.3% on May and down 0.7% on June 2018. Inflation Expectations have decreased around Australia in June, and are down compared to a year ago, led by declines for both employed and unemployed Australians as well as across different occupations and employment categories. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters fell 0.1% to 3.3% in June, while Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters dropped by 0.3% to 3.7%. Inflation Expectations for Greens supporters were unchanged at 3.6%. June Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide representative sample of 3,984 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Signs that wage rise pick-up is under way

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Jul-19

A number of large Australian companies have struck new enterprise agreements which include pay rises that are higher than the current level of wage growth. Some employers in sectors such as retailing and fast food are seeking to increase wages in line with the latest increase in the minimum wage. Meanwhile, Andrew Hanson of recruitment firm Robert Walters says the outlook for the economy and business conditions during the first half of 2019-20 means that more highly-skilled employees are unlikely to receive a significant pay rise.

CORPORATES
ROBERT WALTERS PTY LTD, McDONALD’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HUNGRY JACK’S PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, BWS – BEER WINE SPIRITS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 117.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jul-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.1% to 117.6 in the week ended 7 July, following the prior week’s 4% gain. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.7%, while views towards future financial conditions gained 1.3%. However, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 3.6% and views toward future economic conditions fell 1.7%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was down 4.6%, and the four-week moving average for inflation expectations was up 0.1ppt to 4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Real unemployment at 9.2% in June as tax cuts set to boost economy

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,363,000 Australians were employed in June 2019, up 118,000 over the past year. The rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 479,000 over the last year (to 8,279,000); however, part-time employment has declined by 361,000 (to 4,084,000). The figures also show that 1,254,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in June, up 83,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 0.5%. An additional 1,275,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 27,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, 2,529,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in June, an increase of 56,000 in a year (up 0.2%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for June is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2019 of 5.2%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says many commentators are expressing concern about the state of the Australian economy; however, with significant income tax cuts being legislated by the new Government and back-to-back interest rate cuts by the RBA in June and July, there is an increasing amount of stimulus in the Australian economy to support businesses and therefore increase employment opportunities.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Trade surplus hasn’t hushed rate cut talk

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 4-Jul-19

Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $5.7bn in May, eclipsing the previous high of $4.8bn in April. The big trade surplus was driven by strong growth in iron ore export volumes and the price of the steel input. Kaixin Owyong of National Australia Bank says the record trade surplus could put the nation on track to achieve a current account surplus for the first time in decades. Meanwhile, some economists have flagged the potential for another official interest rate cut in August.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps to 118.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 4% to 118.9 in the week ended 30 June, one of the largest increases in a year. On an absolute level, the index is at a two-month high. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.2%, while views towards future financial conditions were up 1.0%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 13.3% after falling for three consecutive weeks, and views toward future economic conditions rose 7.0% after four straight weekly losses. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was up 3.2%, taking it close to the levels seen last July. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 3.9%, although the weekly reading fell to 3.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.7 in June

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Jul-19

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 0.3pts (+0.3%) to 114.7 in June 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey, after an 11.2% jump in May. Business Confidence has now increased to its highest level since May 2018 (117.1). Now 53.9% (up 9.4ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator since April 2018), while just 14.1% (down 1.6ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator since April 2016). Meanwhile, 49.5% (up 2.1ppts) of businesses expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ over the next year, while 39.7% (down 1.6ppts) expect the economy to have ‘bad times’. However, just 41.2% (down 10.1ppts) of businesses say the next year will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 43.4% (up 7.4ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Public service growth hurting the economy

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 26-Jun-19

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has released a report which shows that the public sector accounted for 85 per cent of jobs that were created in the year to May 2019. CBA economist Gareth Aird notes that a rise in public sector employment tends to result in a short-term increase in demand in the economy, but it does little to boost productivity. Aird adds that the non-productive nature of most public sector work is a key reason why GDP growth is slowing while jobs growth is strong.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.1% to 114.3 in the week ended 23 June. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 4.7%, while views towards future financial conditions were up 0.2%. Both financial condition sub-indices have been positive for two straight weeks. However, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 6.9% and views toward future economic conditions were down 5%. Both sub-indices are below their long-term averages. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index jumped 6.1%. It has not been above its current level since July 2018. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations rose to 3.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ