ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers after Federal Election result

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.1% to 117.2 in the week ended 19 May, reversing the previous week’s loss. The survey coincided with the election, so much of the gain likely reflects the impact of the surprise win by the Coalition. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.5%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 1.2%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 3.8%, compared to a fall of 8.1% previously, while future economic conditions were up 0.9%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose 4.1% to its highest level since the end of March.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs up, jobless up, pose RBA dilemma

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-May-19

Official figures show that the Australian economy added a higher-than-expected 28,400 jobs in April, with a net gain of 34,700 part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent, while the labour force participation rate rose from 65.7 per cent to a record 65.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose to 8.3 per cent and the underutilisation rate rose to 13.7 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates in June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC

Rise in jobless lifts chance of rate cut

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 17-May-19

Financial markets have priced in a 64 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in June, after official data showed that the unemployment rate rose from five per cent to 5.2 per cent in April. However, George Tharenou of UBS still expects the central bank to leave interest rates on hold until July, preferring to wait for the next set of labour market data before taking action. Ben Jarman of JP Morgan forecasts a rate cut in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Coalition’s legacy of record low growth takes hit

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Ewin Hannan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 16-May-19

Official data shows that wages grew by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter and 2.3 per cent in the year to March. George Tharenou of UBS says the rate of growth in wages is not sufficient to put upward pressure on inflation. Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics says wages growth should have been higher given that the unemployment rate fell to an eight-year low in the quarter and the under-utilisation rate has fallen one per cent over the last year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus says Australia has recorded its lowest rate of wages growth since World War II under the Coalition.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy-Morgan Consumer Confidence drops after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.1% to 114.8 in the week ended 12 May, closing below its four-week moving average but remaining above the long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 1.4%. However, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell a massive 8.1%, continuing their recent volatile pattern, and future economic conditions fell 3.3%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell 2.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Over 600,000 jobs created since last election, but is it enough for the L-NP?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

Roy Morgan real Australian unemployment is 8.9% in April, down 2% in a month, and following the same pattern seen during the last Federal Election when unemployment declined by 1.1% during the campaign before rebounding. There were 1.2 million Australians unemployed in April and a further 1.18 million Australians under-employed – a total of 2.38 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work (17.7% of the workforce). Full-time employment was 8.03 million, up nearly 350,000 since the last election, while part-time employment was 4.22 million (up 260,000). Although over 600,000 jobs have been created since the last Federal Election in July 2016, total unemployment and under-employment remains stuck well above 2 million people.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bellwether sectors shed thousands of workers

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 & 31 : 10-May-19

Analysis by JP Morgan shows that nearly 140,000 jobs were lost in Australia’s manufacturing, construction and retail sectors in the first three months of 2019. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that so-called bellwether sectors are the most closely linked to the economic cycle. He says rising job losses in these sectors will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. George Tharenou of UBS says GDP growth is a more reliable indicator of the health of the economy than monthly employment data.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down to 117.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.3% to 117.3 in the week ended 5 May, consolidating at an above-average level. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.2%, while views towards future financial conditions fell 1.2%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 4.1%, largely reversing the prior week’s fall of 5.5%, and views towards future economic conditions fell 3.6%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell 0.3%, following a rise of 4% in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA set to cut, Macquarie predicts

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-May-19

Inflation remains well below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and Ric Deverell of Macquarie Group notes that it is continuing to trend lower. He says the inflation outlook is the key factor that will prompt the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points on 7 May. Deverell adds that a rate cut will have more impact while the unemployment rate is low rather than if the central bank waits until it rises.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Cost of living climbs for pensioners

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 2-May-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was no increase in the cost of living for wage and salary earners during the March quarter, although there has been a year-on-year increase of 1.4 per cent. The figures also show that the cost of living for age pension recipients rose by 0.3 per cent during the March quarter, although the cost of living for self-funded retirees fell by 0.2 per cent. Labor has contended that prices are rising at at time when wages growth is stagnant.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA