ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

No joy yet for housing construction

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 31-May-19

Building approvals fell by 4.7 per cent month-on-month in April in seasonally adjusted terms, while detached dwelling approvals declined for a third month to their lowest level in nearly six years. Callum Pickering from jobs site Indeed says the fall in approvals indicates that construction activity is likely to continue to decline over the next 12 months, although National Australia Bank economist Kaixin Owyong notes that non-residential approvals increased by 16 per cent in April.

CORPORATES
INDEED INCORPORATED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases further to 118.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 118.6 in the week ended 26 May. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1.2%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 0.8%. These two indices have risen for three consecutive weeks, and the measure of current financial conditions is at its highest since early February. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 3.0% and future economic conditions were up 4.5%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell 2.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations dropped to a record low of 3.7% in April

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-May-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 3.7% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for April 2019. This is down 0.3% on March and down 0.8% on April 2018, and a new record low for the indicator. Inflation Expectations have now dropped to 1.2% points below the nine-year average of 4.9%, the largest gap below average since late 2015. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for L-NP supporters have dropped to only 3.4%, down 0.7% from a year ago, while those of ALP supporters are now just above the national average at 3.8%, also down by 0.7%. The Inflation Expectations of Greens supporters are in comparison little changed from a year ago at 3.8%, down by only 0.2%. April Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,154 Australians aged 14+ face-to-face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers after Federal Election result

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.1% to 117.2 in the week ended 19 May, reversing the previous week’s loss. The survey coincided with the election, so much of the gain likely reflects the impact of the surprise win by the Coalition. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.5%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 1.2%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 3.8%, compared to a fall of 8.1% previously, while future economic conditions were up 0.9%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose 4.1% to its highest level since the end of March.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs up, jobless up, pose RBA dilemma

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 17-May-19

Official figures show that the Australian economy added a higher-than-expected 28,400 jobs in April, with a net gain of 34,700 part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate increased to 5.2 per cent, while the labour force participation rate rose from 65.7 per cent to a record 65.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose to 8.3 per cent and the underutilisation rate rose to 13.7 per cent. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital expects the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates in June.

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LENDLEASE GROUP – ASX LLC

Rise in jobless lifts chance of rate cut

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 17-May-19

Financial markets have priced in a 64 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in June, after official data showed that the unemployment rate rose from five per cent to 5.2 per cent in April. However, George Tharenou of UBS still expects the central bank to leave interest rates on hold until July, preferring to wait for the next set of labour market data before taking action. Ben Jarman of JP Morgan forecasts a rate cut in August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Coalition’s legacy of record low growth takes hit

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Ewin Hannan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 16-May-19

Official data shows that wages grew by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter and 2.3 per cent in the year to March. George Tharenou of UBS says the rate of growth in wages is not sufficient to put upward pressure on inflation. Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics says wages growth should have been higher given that the unemployment rate fell to an eight-year low in the quarter and the under-utilisation rate has fallen one per cent over the last year. ACTU secretary Sally McManus says Australia has recorded its lowest rate of wages growth since World War II under the Coalition.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, ACTU, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy-Morgan Consumer Confidence drops after RBA leaves interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.1% to 114.8 in the week ended 12 May, closing below its four-week moving average but remaining above the long-term average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 1.4%. However, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell a massive 8.1%, continuing their recent volatile pattern, and future economic conditions fell 3.3%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell 2.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Over 600,000 jobs created since last election, but is it enough for the L-NP?

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-May-19

Roy Morgan real Australian unemployment is 8.9% in April, down 2% in a month, and following the same pattern seen during the last Federal Election when unemployment declined by 1.1% during the campaign before rebounding. There were 1.2 million Australians unemployed in April and a further 1.18 million Australians under-employed – a total of 2.38 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work (17.7% of the workforce). Full-time employment was 8.03 million, up nearly 350,000 since the last election, while part-time employment was 4.22 million (up 260,000). Although over 600,000 jobs have been created since the last Federal Election in July 2016, total unemployment and under-employment remains stuck well above 2 million people.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Bellwether sectors shed thousands of workers

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 & 31 : 10-May-19

Analysis by JP Morgan shows that nearly 140,000 jobs were lost in Australia’s manufacturing, construction and retail sectors in the first three months of 2019. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that so-called bellwether sectors are the most closely linked to the economic cycle. He says rising job losses in these sectors will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate. George Tharenou of UBS says GDP growth is a more reliable indicator of the health of the economy than monthly employment data.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND