ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Business Confidence up slightly in March at 106.7 (pre-Budget)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Apr-19

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 1.1pts to 106.7 in March 2019, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 8.7pts below its level of March 2018 and 9.1pts below its long-term average of 115.8. In addition, the average Business Confidence during the March quarter of only 106.1 is the weakest start to a year in the history of the Index. Now 49.6% (down 1.1ppts) of businesses expect the business to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while just 24% (up 0.2ppts) expect the business to be ‘worse off’ financially. Meanwhile, 45.6% (up 4.9ppts) of businesses expect the Australian economy to have ‘good times’ over the next year, while 48.6% (down 4.6ppts) expect the economy to have ‘bad times’. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says April and May are set to be dominated by the looming Federal Election, and the continuing political uncertainty is likely to prevent any significant moves either up or down for Business Confidence.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Record trade surplus of $4.8b thanks to iron ore

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Apr-19

New figures show that Australia’s trade surplus rose to a record $4.8bn in February, well ahead of analysts’ expectations of just $3.7bn. The result was boosted by an 11 per cent increase in the value of iron ore exports. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank expects commodity prices to rise further, and that the forecasts outlined in the April 2019 Budget will prove to be too conservative. Meanwhile, services exports rose by two per cent in February, while there was a one per cent decline in rural exports.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Hopes for higher pay revised down

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: B8 : 3-Apr-19

The April 2019 Budget papers show that the federal government has scaled back its wage growth forecasts since the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. It now expects wages to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2018-19 and 2.75 per cent in 2019-20. Wages growth in 2020-21 in turn is expected to be 3.25 per cent. In contrast, the Reserve Bank has forecast wages growth of about 2.5 per cent until 2020, and 2.6 per cent by mid-2021. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to be five per cent over the forward estimates period, while the labour participation rate is expected to ease to 65.5 per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 114.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Apr-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.6% to 114.7 in the week ended 31 March. The uptick has resulted in the index closing near a one-month high. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.5%, while views towards future financial conditions rose 0.4% after a fall of 3.3% in the previous week. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions jumped 8.1% and views towards future economic conditions rose 1.3%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index gained 5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Household wealth plunges by $10,000, the most since 2011

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 29-Mar-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s overall household net worth fell by $257bn in the December 2018 quarter. This equates to an average of $10,198 per household, and followed a decline of $2,263 in the September quarter. The ABS notes that household net wealth had not declined for two consecutive quarters since the final three months of 2011. Factors such as weaker housing prices and a sharemarket slump weighed on household wealth in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobless fall gives RBA breathing room

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 22-Mar-19

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from five per cent to 4.9 per cent in February, with a net gain of 4,600 jobs for the month. The economy shed 7,300 full-time jobs in February, although this was offset by the creation of 11,900 part-time positions. The participation rate and the underutilisation rate both eased slightly, to 65.6 per cent and 13.1 per cent respectively. Economists say the unemployment rate’s fall to an eight-year low will reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut official interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK

Inflation Expectations lowest in over two years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Mar-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for February 2019. This is down 0.2% on January, and down 0.4% on February 2018. Inflation Expectations have now broken below the range they have tracked in for over two years and are now at their lowest since November 2016. Inflation Expectations have now dropped significantly below the nine-year average of 4.9%. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the major parties were unchanged in February, with L-NP supporters having Inflation Expectations of only 3.6% and Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters of 3.9%. February Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,234 Australians aged 14+ face-to-face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Hold on rates due to strong jobs data

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 20-Mar-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank expects the labour market to remain strong, negating the need for any change to the cash rate in the near-term. The Reserve Bank also maintained its guidance for GDP growth of about three per cent in 2019, although the board meeting was held the day before the release of data showing GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent for the December 2018 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Weaker unions not the problem

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 20-Mar-19

University of Sydney economist Stephen Kirchner contends that Australia’s low level of wages growth is not linked to the decline in union membership. In a paper that has been published by the US Studies Centre, Kirchner also disputes the ACTU’s claim that wages growth is no longer linked to productivity increases. Kirchner adds that the rise in house prices has been the major contributor to the decline in labour’s share of income over the long-term.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE, ACTU, CENTRE FOR FUTURE WORK

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence lifts to 111.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.2% to 111.9 in the week ended 17 March, after a fall of 4.6% in the previous week. The index is still below the long-term average of 113.1. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 6%, after falls in the previous three readings; views toward future financial conditions rose 1.7%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions were up 4.8% after the sharp fall of 7.9% in the previous week, and views toward future economic conditions were up marginally by 0.1%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell by 0.5%, its third consecutive fall.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ