ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Housing slide threatens surplus hopes

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 28-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that construction activity fell by a higher-than-expected 3.1 per cent nationwide in the December quarter, with housing construction falling by 3.6 per cent. The decline in construction work is likely to weigh on GDP growth for the quarter, which may in turn affect economic forecasts in the federal government’s April 2019 Budget. Growth forecasts had already been scaled back in the mid-year Budget update.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.0% to 114.1 in the week ended 24 February, retracing the previous week’s gain, although it remains above the long-run average by some margin. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 0.9%, while views toward future financial conditions declined 5.3%. However, this only took the latter down to around the long-run average. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 1.6%, but future economic conditions gained 0.5%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index moved higher for the second week, gaining 2.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Industry super wins $11b from retail

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 27-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority show that retail superannuation funds’ outflows totalled $10.9bn in 2018, compared with just $3.5bn in 2017. Industry funds benefited from the bearish sentiment toward retail funds. AustralianSuper’s funds under management rose by 17 per cent to $140bn, lifting its market share to 5.7 per cent. AMP, which was highly criticised by the Hayne royal commission, remains the nation’s largest retail super fund. It boasts some $123bn worth of funds under management, although its market share has fallen below five per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Incomes to be weak for years: IMF

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 26-Feb-19

The International Monetary Fund expects the Australian economy to grow by just 2.6 per cent in 2020, compared with the federal government’s forecast of three per cent growth. The IMF’s forecasts also show that growth in real incomes will average 0.3 per cent annually over the next six years, when adjusted for inflation. This compares with a long-term average of 1.8 per cent since the 1960s. Industry Super Australia’s chief economist Stephen Anthony says the IMF’s forecasts demonstrate the need for both sides of politics to put economic reform on their policy agenda.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, OUTLOOK ECONOMICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

House price falls key caveat for Reserve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Natasha Gillezeau
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Feb-19

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s monthly board meeting show that the central bank believes that the cases for an increase or a reduction in the cash rate are "more evenly balanced" now than they had been over the last year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank had stated in December that a rate rise is more likely. The central bank has also noted that dwelling investment is likely to decline more sharply than previously anticipated, and it has given indications that the outlook for house prices may influence the timing of the next change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers to 115.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.0% to 115.2 in the week ended 17 February. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.8%, while views toward future financial conditions rose 3.6%. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions fell by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index rose by 1.1% after four consecutive weekly declines. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations declined by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, the lowest since 2016.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.2% in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2019. This is unchanged on December and down 0.3% on January 2018. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range of between 4.2-4.5% since November 2016. Inflation Expectations remain significantly below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis of Inflation Expectations by voting intentions shows that L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party in January, unchanged at only 3.6%. L-NP supporters have had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters fell 0.1% to a record low of 3.9%. January Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,111 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Wage rises to arrest falling growth outlooks

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Original article by Natasha Gillezeau, Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 14-Feb-19

BIS Oxford Economics recently downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, but the firm does not expect the Hayne royal commission to have much impact on the economy. Alexandra Heath, the Reserve Bank’s head of economics, says the labour market was more resilient in 2018 than the central bank had expected, and it is likely to remain strong in 2019. She says this should in turn lead to a gradual increase in wages. She adds that the downturn in the housing market is unlikely to have much impact on economic growth or consumer spending.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence tumbles to 114.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence 3.4% to 114.1 in the week ended 10 February, taking the index to a three-month low. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 7.1%, taking the subindex back to where it was in November, but still quite some way above the long-run average. Households’ views towards future financial conditions fell by a more subdued 1.6%. Meanwhile, consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell by 3.2%, its first fall after three straight weekly gains, while future economic conditions fell by 3.8%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 1.6%, its fourth straight weekly loss and taking it back to where it was at the end of October.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Incomes lagging rise in cost of living

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 7-Feb-19

The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Research & Methods estimates that household income has increased by 8.5 per cent over the last three years. However, the increase in the cost of living over this period means that real income per person has fallen by 2.9 per cent. The analysis also shows that so-called bracket creep saw personal income tax payments rise by 20 per cent to $57.4bn over the three years to 2018, while total disposable income increased by just 7.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. CENTRE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH AND METHODS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY