ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Housing bust, lower wages hit retail sales

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in December, while sales grew by just 0.1 per cent in the December quarter. The figures also show that Western Australia is the only state that did not experience a decline in retail sales during December. Gareth Aird of the Commonwealth Bank says consumer spending is being affected by the downturn in the housing market. He notes that this is particular evident in New South Wales, where house prices have fallen the most and retail sales were down 1.1 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

King coal now tops export earners

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 24 : 6-Feb-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s minerals and energy exports rose to a record $193bn in 2018. The value of coal exports topped $66.2bn, surpassing iron ore as Australia’s biggest export earner for the first time. Mining companies benefited from a rally in thermal and coking coal prices in 2018. However, prices have since fallen, while the iron ore price has rallied in 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 118.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.4% to 118.1 in the week ended 3 February, moving higher for the second week in a row. The gain has brought the index close to its highest level since early December. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.2%, and views towards future financial conditions gained 1.3%. Consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions gained 0.9% and 1.4% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 0.3%, to its lowest level since October.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Apartment approvals hit four-year low

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 5-Feb-19

Official figures show that just 53,590 units in apartment towers of at least four storeys were approved in 2018, which is about 12 per cent lower than 2017. The number of approvals for stand-alone dwellings fell slightly, to 119,668. Overall, a total of 212,316 apartments, houses and townhouses were approved in 2018, which is the lowest level in four years. JLL has forecast that just 16,000 apartments will be completed across Australia in 2019.

CORPORATES
JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Record employment in January driven by increasing full-time jobs

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Feb-19

A Roy Morgan survey shows that a record 12,397,000 Australians were employed in January 2019, up 161,000 over the past year. The increase in employment was driven by a solid increase in full-time employment of 212,000 (to 8,257,000); part-time employment was down 51,000 (to 4,140,000). The figures also show that 1,253,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were unemployed in January (up 34,000 on a year ago), and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%. In addition, 1,300,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 71,000 in a year (down 0.7%). In total 2,553,000 Australians (18.7% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in January, a decrease of 37,000 in a year (down 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for January is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for December 2018 of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that despite steady economic growth over the past few years, analysing the employment trends shows that over 2 million Australians have been unemployed or underemployed for over seven years.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 116.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Jan-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.7% to 116.5 in the week ended 27 January, continuing its up-down-up pattern. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.2%, but views towards future financial conditions declined by 0.9%. Consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions gained 1.7% and 5.9% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 3.9%, to its lowest level since October.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Next rates move will be up: RBA’s Harper

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Original article by James Glynn
The Australian – Page: 24 : 30-Jan-19

Reserve Bank of Australia board member Ian Harper has downplayed suggestions that the central bank could further reduce the cash rate. He says the strength of the domestic economy means that interest rates will rise, but stresses that this is his personal view. Meanwhile, Harper adds that there are no indications as yet that the downturn in residential property prices has prompted consumers to reduce their spending. Financial markets have priced in a better-than-even chance that the RBA will reduce the cash rate during 2019.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MELBOURNE BUSINESS SCHOOL, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Inflation Expectations down 0.1% to 4.2% in December

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Jan-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.2% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for December 2018. This is down 0.1% on a month ago and down 0.3% on December 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.2-4.5% for over two years. Inflation Expectations have dropped further below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations fell in December for supporters of all political parties. L-NP supporters again had the lowest Inflation Expectations of supporters of any party, now at only 3.6%, down 0.1% in December. L-NP supporters have now had the lowest Inflation Expectations of any supporters since April 2018. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were down 0.2% to 4.0% in December and are now at their lowest since November 2016. December Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,104 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

December jobs growth beats forecasts

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Jan-19

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate eased from 5.1 per cent to five per cent in December, with a net gain of 21,600 jobs during the month. Some 24,600 new part-time jobs were created, although the number of full-time positions fell by 3,000. The general consensus of economists had been for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1 per cent and for 18,000 new jobs to have been created in December. Meanwhile, the labour market’s under-utilisation rate has fallen by 0.2 per cent to 13.3 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BIXWOOD PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence softens to 115.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.9% to 115.7 in the week ended 20 January, giving back much of the previous week’s gain. The overall index is still above its starting point for 2019, although it is almost 5% lower than its average for January 2018. Households’ views towards current and future financial conditions fell by 0.3% and 2.4% respectively; both indices are around the levels seen this time last year and above long-run averages. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions gained 3.4%, while future economic conditions fell 0.7%. These indices are 6-8% below the levels that prevailed in January 2018. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell 3.2%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ