ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

RBA set to cut, Macquarie predicts

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-May-19

Inflation remains well below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent, and Ric Deverell of Macquarie Group notes that it is continuing to trend lower. He says the inflation outlook is the key factor that will prompt the Reserve Bank to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points on 7 May. Deverell adds that a rate cut will have more impact while the unemployment rate is low rather than if the central bank waits until it rises.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Cost of living climbs for pensioners

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 2-May-19

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that there was no increase in the cost of living for wage and salary earners during the March quarter, although there has been a year-on-year increase of 1.4 per cent. The figures also show that the cost of living for age pension recipients rose by 0.3 per cent during the March quarter, although the cost of living for self-funded retirees fell by 0.2 per cent. Labor has contended that prices are rising at at time when wages growth is stagnant.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down to 117.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 1-May-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.6% to 117.6 in the week ended 28 April, although consumer confidence remains well above average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, while views towards future financial conditions fell 1.5% after four straight weekly gains. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 5.5%, and views towards future economic conditions fell 2.6% after a gain of 7.7% in the previous reading. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was up 4%. The rise was pleasing, as it is the only subindex that is below its long-term average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations stuck at lowest in over two years

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-19

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for March 2019. This is unchanged on February but down 0.3% on March 2018, and the index remains at its lowest since late 2016 for a second straight month. Inflation Expectations remained significantly below the nine-year average of 4.9% in March. Analysis by voting intentions shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the major parties diverged further in March, with the index decreasing by 0.2% for L-NP supporters to only 3.4%. In contrast the Inflation Expectations of ALP supporters increased by 0.2% to 4.1%. Greens supporters now have the lowest Inflation Expectations of any group after another fall, down 0.5% to 3.3%. March Inflation Expectations are based on personally interviewing a nationwide sample of 4,069 Australians aged 14+ face-to -face in their own homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 119.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Apr-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 3.6% to 119.5 in the week ended 21 April, taking the index to its highest level since December. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.6%, while views towards future financial conditions were up 5.2%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 2%, and views towards future economic conditions increased 7.7% to the highest level since 2013. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was flat.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up to 115.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% to 115.3 in the week ended 14 April. This reaffirms our prognosis that the post-Budget dip in consumer confidence was likely noise. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.1%, after three consecutive falls, while views towards future financial conditions inched up 0.1%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 4.2%, to the highest level for this year; views towards future economic conditions rose 1.5%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index was up 1.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Record 1.3 million landlords cash in on negative gearing as shake-up looms

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Original article by Ben Butler, Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 17-Apr-19

Data from the Australian Taxation Office shows that the number of property investors who use negative gearing rose from 631,000 to about 1.3 million between 2000 and 2017. In contrast, the number of investors who broke even or made a profit rose from 532,000 to around 856,000. The figures also show that the proportion of investors who are aged 60+ rose from around 15 per cent to about 23.5 per cent. Robert Deutsch of the Tax Institute does not expect Labor’s proposed negative gearing reforms to have much effect on housing prices.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, THE TAX INSTITUTE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

Real unemployment jumps to 10.9% as Australians prepare to vote in election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-19

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series shows that 12,158,000 Australians were employed in March 2019, down 216,000 over the past year. The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 203,000 over the past year (to 4,228,000); full-time employment was virtually unchanged, down by 13,000 (to 7,930,000). The figures also show that 1,491,000 Australians (10.9% of the workforce) were unemployed in March, up 281,000 on a year ago, and the unemployment rate was up by 2%. In addition, 1,321,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 41,000 in a year (down 0.3%). In total, a record high 2,812,000 Australians (20.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, an increase of 240,000 in a year (up 1.7%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.9% for March is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for February of 4.9%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the disappointing employment figures suggest the real problem facing the Morrison Government has been an inability to solve Australia’s continuing problem of high unemployment and under-employment. Roy Morgan has consistently shown over 2 million Australians looking for work (unemployed) or looking for more work (under-employed) since the L-NP Government was first elected in September 2013 and that problem remains a large one to this day.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Negative equity feared as house prices plunge

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Luke Griffiths
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-Apr-19

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s deputy governor Guy Debelle says the number of homeowners with negative equity has increased, although he notes that it remains largely confined to Western Australia and mining regions. He adds that it is unusual for house prices to fall sharply at a time when the economy is continuing to grow and the unemployment rate is low. Debelle says the outlook for the labour market is likely to determine whether there is a further increase in negative equity and mortgage arrears.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down to 113.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Apr-19

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.3% to 113.2 in the week ended 7 April, despite the tax cuts set out in the Budget. Consumer confidence is now just above its long-run average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.7%, while views towards future financial conditions rose by the same amount, thus having a neutral effect on the combined index. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 0.7%, building on the big jump of 8.1% in the previous reading; views towards future economic conditions rose 0.8%, for a fourth straight weekly gain. The ‘time to buy a household item’ index fell by 7.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ