ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Part-time workers drive jobs spike

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 21-Dec-18

Official data shows that the Australian economy added 37,000 jobs in November, with a 43,400-strong increase in part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,400 full-time positions during the month. The data shows that full- and part-time jobs have grown by 180,200 and 105,500 respectively over the last year. Meanwhile, Australia’s official unemployment rate rose from five per cent to 5.1 per cent in November, while the labour market participation rate increased by 0.2 per cent to 65.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, INDEED INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Goldman hits at doomsday savings chatter

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 21-Dec-18

Andrew Boak and Tom Kennedy have differing views on whether low savings rates are a sign that Australian consumers are optimistic. Boak, who is Goldman Sachs’ chief economist in Australia, believes that low saving rates show that consumers are using their savings to spend, and it reflects a sense of optimism. However, Kennedy, who is JP Morgan’s global fixed income strategist, says if consumers were feeling that optimistic this would also be reflected in similar moves in credit card debt and short-term debit items.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence levels to 117.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Dec-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.1% to 117.8 in the week ended 16 December, essentially unchanged from the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2%, while future financial condition were flat. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 0.2%, but future economic conditions fell 0.9%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index rose 2.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fall in ad spend the canary in coal mine

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Original article by Nick Tabakoff
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 18-Dec-18

Total advertising expenditure across all Australian media was down by over 10 per cent year-on-year in October, according to SMI. It is understood that figures for November will show a similar negative trend. Mark Coad, the CEO of media buyer PHD Australia, notes that advertising tends to be a good leading indicator of the overall economy, while fellow media buyer Chris Walton of Nunn Media says global factors such as the US-China trade war and Brexit could also be impacting on advertisers.

CORPORATES
SMI MEDIA INCORPORATED, PHD CREATIVE PTY LTD, NUNN MEDIA PTY LTD, UNILEVER PLC, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, OMNICOM MEDIA GROUP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MEDIA FEDERATION OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 4.3% in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for November 2018. This is down 0.2% on a month ago, and down 0.2% from November 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for nearly 18 straight months, since mid-2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations for Liberal-National Party supporters were unchanged at 3.7% in November and remain clearly lower than for supporters of all other parties. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were unchanged at 4.2% in November and remain at their lowest since mid-2017. November Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,408 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

New housing loans drop 7.4pc in quarter

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 19 : 13-Dec-18

A new report from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that $89.2bn worth of new mortgage loans were written in the September quarter, which is 7.4 per cent lower than previously. However, authorised deposit-taking institutions have reported a 5.4 per cent increase in the total value of housing loans in the year to September. Chris Bedingfield of Quay Global Investors says the annual rate of house construction is now too high, given that banks are tightening their lending criteria. He adds that the Reserve Bank is now more likely to reduce rather than raise the cash rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, QUAY GLOBAL INVESTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Value of housing takes a $70bn hit

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Original article by Turi Condon, Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Dec-18

Official data shows that the mean value of an Australian home fell by about $9,700 in the September quarter, to $675,000. The total value of the 10.1 million dwellings in Australia declined by $70.1bn in the quarter, to $6.8trn. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also shows that dwelling prices in Melbourne fell by 2.6 per cent in the quarter and by 1.5 per cent year-on-year, while Sydney recorded falls of 1.9 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence drops to 117.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Dec-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.5% to 117.7 in the week ended 9 December, reversing the gains seen over the previous two weeks. However, consumer confidence remains well above its long-run average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 0.7%, while future financial condition were up 1.7%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 6% but future economic conditions were up a modest 0.3%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index was down 2.8%, its second straight loss after it made a solid gain in the second half of November.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia becomes an LNG force

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 7-Dec-18

Data from Bloomberg shows that Australia’s LNG exports totalled 6.55 million tonnes in November 2018, surpassing Qatar (6.27 million tonnes) for the first time. Australia’s LNG shipments for the calendar year are expected to exceed 78 million tonnes, compared with 77 million tonnes for Qatar. Projects such as Ichthys will further boost Australia’s LNG exports, although both Qatar and the US intend to increase production. Meanwhile, official figures show that Australia’s revenue from LNG exports totalled $38.8bn in the year to October, while coal and iron ore revenue was $64.6bn and $61.6bn respectively.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, INPEX CORPORATION, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, S&P PLATTS

Unemployment in November is 9.5% and under-employment is 7.7%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,294,000 Australians were employed in November 2018, up 408,000 over the past year. The increase in employment was evenly shared, with part-time employment rising by 217,000 to 4,184,000 and full-time employment rising by 191,000 to 8,110,000. The figures also show that 1,291,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were unemployed in November, virtually unchanged on a year ago but with the unemployment rate down by 0.3% due to growth in the workforce. In addition, 1,042,000 Australians (7.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 64,000 in a year (down 0.7%). This is the lowest level of under-employment since September 2016. In total 2,333,000 Australians (17.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November, a decrease of 61,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.5% for November remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for October of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the strong growth in employment appears to be directly related to the growth in the overall Australian workforce, with the level of unemployment virtually unchanged from a year ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS