ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

With numbers like these, the only way is down for RBA

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 6-Dec-18

The lower-than-expected GDP growth for both the September quarter and the year to September should be sufficient to ensure further easing of monetary policy. The Reserve Bank has consistently maintained that the cash rate is more likely to rise rather than fall, but a rate cut now seems more probable. However, the record level of household debt means a rate cut may have little impact on the economy or put much downward pressure on mortgage interest rates.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Weak wages a threat to Xmas sales

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Original article by John Kehoe, Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 6-Dec-18

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the September quarter, compared with economists’ expectations of 0.6 per cent growth. Economists have attributed the fall in consumer spending to low wages growth and raised concerns about the outlook for retail sales during the Christmas trading period. Recent research by the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan found that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. The GDP data may affect the timing of any change in official interest rates, but the federal government still expects to post a Budget surplus in 2019-20.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MJ BALE, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RETAIL APPAREL GROUP PTY LTD, CITIBANK PTY LTD

Upbeat RBA welcomes higher wages

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Original article by William McInnes, Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 5-Dec-18

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe notes that the outlook for the labour market is positive and the unemployment rate likely to fall further. In a statement accompanying the central bank’s monetary policy decision, Lowe also welcomed signs of wages growth. The RBA left official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent for a record 28th month on 4 December, and Sally Auld of JP Morgan says the timing of a rate rise will depend on the outlook for wages. The consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg is that the cash rate will remain unchanged until at least the December 2019 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence continues rises to 119.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Dec-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 119.5 in the week ended 2 December. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 7.2% while future financial condition rose by 2.3%. However, consumers’ views toward current and future economic conditions fell by 2.5% and 0.3% respectively. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index was down 1.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence up for third straight month to 113.8 in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 0.7pts (+0.6%) to 113.8 in November 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence has continued a rebound which began following the Liberal leadership instability in late August. Business Confidence is now above where it was in July (113.6), prior to the leadership challenge, for the first time. Business Confidence so far during 2018 has averaged 115.6, the highest yearly average since 2014. Businesses are largely positive, with 51.1% (up 5.9ppts) expecting the business to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year and 51.8% (up 2.3ppts) expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says there is rising confidence across a broad number of industries compared to this time a year ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Manufacturing, mining to power capex rebound

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 30-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that capital expenditure in the private sector is now expected to top $114.1bn in 2018-19, compared with a previous forecast of $102bn. The mining and manufacturing sectors are tipped to be the key drivers of the upturn in capital expenditure. Meanwhile, the figures show that private sector capex fell by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter, primarily due to lower expenditure in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN SECURITIES AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TD SECURITIES, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Fewer workers are joining unions

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 30-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the number of workers who are union members has fallen by 11,700 overall since 2016. A total of 1.5 million Australians were union members in August 2018, comprising 1.133 million full-time workers and 402,000 part-time employees. However, union membership as a proportion of the workforce has fallen from 15.3 per cent in 2016 to 14.6 per cent. The education and training sector has the highest proportion of union membership.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rises to 118.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Nov-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.7% to 118.6 in the week ended 25 November, partially reversing the previous week’s fall. Households’ views towards current and future financial conditions fell by 0.5% and 3% respectively. The economic conditions readings were mixed, with households’ views towards current economic conditions rising 5%, while future economic conditions eased 0.8%.. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index was up 2.6%, its second straight gain.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence consolidates to 117.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Nov-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.7% to 117.8 in the week ended 18 November, despite generally positive local economic data. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 7.4%, unwinds the index’s upturn since it plunged following the Wentworth by-election. Households’ views towards future financial conditions fell by 1.8%. The economic conditions readings were mixed, with current economic conditions falling by 1.6% while future economic conditions rose by 1.3%. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index was up 0.9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations up 0.2% to 4.5% in October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Nov-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for October 2018. This is up 0.2% on a month ago, but unchanged from October 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 16 straight months, since July 2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis shows that Inflation Expectations for supporters of the two major political parties are down compared to a year ago, while Inflation Expectations for Greens supporters are unchanged. However, Inflation Expectations for supporters of Independents and Others have increased substantially over the last year. October Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,156 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED