ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Strong hiring keeps jobless rate at 5pc

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 42,300 full-time jobs were created in October, although the economy shed 9,500 part-time jobs. The net gain of 32,800 jobs saw the official unemployment rate remain steady at five per cent. The general consensus of economists had been that 20,000 jobs were created and the jobless rate had risen to 5.1 per cent. Meanwhile, Capital Economics has suggested that the level of full employment in the economy is now likely to be around four per cent rather than five per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Wage growth hits a 3-year high

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Original article by David Scutt
Business Insider Australia – Page: Online : 15-Nov-18

Wage price index data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that wages increased by 0.62 per cent in the September quarter and 2.29 per cent year-on-year. The figures also show that real wage growth was 0.4% in the year to September. Meanwhile, public sector wages increased by an average of 2.47 per cent year-on-year, compared with wages growth of just 2.14 per cent in the private sector. The ABS notes that the 3.5 per cent increase in the minimum wage that took effect in July contributed to wages growth in the September quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, INDEED INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Wages data crucial factor for RBA interest rates decision

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Original article by John Kehoe, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 14-Nov-18

The general consensus of economists is for annual wage price index growth of 2.3 per cent when official data for the September quarter is released on 14 November. Paul Bloxham of HSBC says the Reserve Bank could potentially increase the cash rate sooner than expected if WPI growth is stronger than expected. HSBC forecasts that the cash rate will be increased in mid-2019, although financial markets generally do not expect a rate rise until at least November.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence regains to 119.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Nov-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.6% to 119.8 in the week ended 11 November. Consumer confidence is now higher than it was heading into the Wentworth by-election. Households’ views towards current and future financial conditions rose 3.9% and 2.2% respectively, while sentiment towards current and future economic conditions rose 7% and 4.5% respectively. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell by 3.1%, only partial reversing the previous week’s gain of more than 9%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wages growth tipped to hasten

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 12-Nov-18

The upcoming release of wage price index data for the September quarter will be a key focus for economists and investors in the next week. The general consensus of economists is for WPI growth of 0.6 per cent for the quarter and 2.3 per cent year-on-year. Felicity Emmett of the ANZ Bank expects a 3.5 per cent increase in the minimum wage that took effect at the start of July to have increased the WPI by about 0.15 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA

Unemployment unchanged at 9.4% in October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Nov-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,194,000 Australians were employed in October 2018, up 427,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 173,000 to 7,887,000) and part-time employment (up 254,000 to 4,307,000). The figures also show that 1,265,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, an increase of 39,000 on a year ago. In addition, 1,242,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, an increase of 134,000 in a year (up 0.7%). In total 2,507,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 173,000 in a year (up 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for October remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for September of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the persistent high level of under-employment – which is up more than 130,000 from 1.1 million a year ago – is likely to emerge as a key election issue over the next few months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence continues recovery to 116.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% to 116.8 in the week ended 4 November. Consumer confidence has now regained almost two-thirds of the drop seen after the Wentworth by-election. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose by 1.7%, but sentiment regarding the future financial situation fell by 0.4%. Sentiment towards current and future economic conditions fell by 1.9% and 0.4% respectively. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index rose by 9.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Finance riddled with rent seekers

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 7-Nov-18

Productivity Commission chairman Michael Brennan says much of the Australian banking and wealth management industry’s revenue can be attributed to excessive fees that are a result of limited competition. Financial services is now the biggest sector of the domestic economy; it accounts for nearly nine per cent of economic output, compared with around four per cent in the early 1980s. Meanwhile, Brennan says that health and education reforms will be essential in lifting the nation’s productivity rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BANKING ASSOCIATION

Hope mounts for improvement in real wages index

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 2-Nov-18

Australia’s wage price index recorded growth of 2.1 per cent year-on-year in the June quarter. The latest wage price index data, to be released on 14 November, will attract close scrutiny after inflation rose by 0.4 per cent in the September quarter and 1.9 per in the year to September. David Bassanese of Betashares notes that the wage price index data for the September quarter will be affected by the 3.5 per cent increase in the minimum wage that took effect at the start of July.

CORPORATES
BETASHARES CAPITAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Stubbornly low inflation confounds RBA

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 1-Nov-18

Official data shows that Australia’s headline inflation rate fell to 1.9 per cent in the year to September, compared with 2.1 per cent in the year to June. The underlying inflation rate has fallen to 1.7 per cent. The CPI figures show that an increase in the cost of utilities, tobacco and petrol in the September quarter was offset by a 12 per cent decline in childcare costs following changes to federal subsidies. Despite the fact that inflation is now below the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent, most economists do not expect an increase in official interest rates until at least the end of 2019.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD