ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers to 114.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 31-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2% to 114.6 in the week ended 28 October, regaining a third of the previous week’s decline. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose by 3.1%, while sentiment regarding the future financial situation rose by 1.5%. Sentiment towards current economic conditions rose by 6.2%, more than recovering the previous week’s fall of 5.4; sentiment towards future economic conditions rose by 3.1%. However, the "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell by 2.5%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Film, TV aim to build on record year

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 30-Oct-18

Australia’s film and TV industry spend a record $718m on local productions in 2017-18, which is seven per cent higher than previously. Spending on feature films rose from $287m to $321m, although spending on TV dramas fell from $321m to $295m. However, Screen Australia’s COO Michael Brealey notes that expenditure on drama remained above its five-year average. Local film and TV production is forecast to remain strong in 2018-19, while Screen Australia expects the federal government’s location incentive program to boost the number of international productions.

CORPORATES
SCREEN AUSTRALIA, VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED – ASX VRL, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED

Treasury in warning on saving raids

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 25-Oct-18

Australia’s household savings rate fell to one per cent in June, compared with 2.5 per cent one year earlier. Treasury secretary Phil Gaetjens has told the Senate economics committee that it is likely to fall further as low wages growth forces consumers to use more of their savings. Treasury expects economic growth to continue to be bolstered by consumer spending, but Alan Oster of National Australia Bank says the bank’s own data indicates that consumer spending is not as strong as official figures suggest. Meanwhile, independent economist Saul Eslake says falling asset prices are likely to prompt consumers to reduce their spending.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence plunges to 112.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 6% to 112.3 in the week ended 21 October, closing just below its long-term average and at its lowest level for more than a year. All components of the survey fell sharply. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell by 7.1%, while sentiment regarding the future financial situation fell by 3.4%. Sentiment towards current economic conditions fell by 5.4%, while sentiment towards future economic conditions fell by 6.5%. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell by 7.8%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs figures catch up with economic reality

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 23-Oct-18

Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in September, but in reality the official jobless figure was merely moving into alignment with "shadow" labour market indicators. Macquarie Group economist Justin Fabo expects the unemployment rate to be just below five per cent at the end of 2019, while he estimates that a full employment rate in Australia equates to a jobless rate of about 4.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the majority of "shadow" indicators, including Roy Morgan’s household survey, point towards an inflection higher in the official jobless rate.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobless rate at lowest in seven years

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Oct-18

Australia’s headline unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in September, while the trend rate was steady at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank had forecast that the jobless rate would fall to five per cent by the end of 2020, and the latest figures have prompted speculation that it may begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. However, Craig James of the Commonwealth Bank does not expect it to take action while the official underemployment rate is 8.3 per cent. Meanwhile, Paul Dales of Capital Economics says a significant increase in wages may be dependent on the jobless rate falling to around four per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Job market dries up for low-skilled employees

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Original article by Anna Patty
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 18 : 18-Oct-18

Anglicare has released a report which notes that low-skilled entry-level jobs accounted for just 26,000 of the 185,662 vacancies that were advertised across Australia in May. The report adds that almost 111,000 people are competing for the limited number of entry-level jobs. This equates to an average of four people nationwide, although Anglicare notes that it is much higher in South Australia and Tasmania. Anglicare’s executive director Kasy Chambers says low-skilled, entry-level jobs are "slowly disappearing".

CORPORATES
ANGLICARE AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rises to 119.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% to 119.5 in the week ended 14 October, bringing the index to its highest level since late July. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.3% and sentiment towards future financial conditions rose 0.9%. However, sentiment towards current economic conditions fell by 1.9%, but sentiment towards future economic conditions jumped 3.3%.. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index registered its third consecutive weekly gain, increasing by 3.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations unchanged for a third straight month in September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Oct-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for September 2018. This is unchanged for the third straight month, but down 0.1% from September 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 15 straight months. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by generation compared to a year ago shows that Inflation Expectations are down for Millennials, Generation Z and Pre-Boomers, unchanged for Baby Boomers and up significantly for Generation X. September Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,304 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

IMF warns on debt and high house prices

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 11-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global financial stability report notes that Australia is one of several advanced economies where the rising cost of house prices is a concern. The IMF also expressed concern that the household debt-to-GDP ratio is rising in Australia and a number of other countries. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 122 per cent, while the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio is close to 200 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA