ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence plunges to 112.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 6% to 112.3 in the week ended 21 October, closing just below its long-term average and at its lowest level for more than a year. All components of the survey fell sharply. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell by 7.1%, while sentiment regarding the future financial situation fell by 3.4%. Sentiment towards current economic conditions fell by 5.4%, while sentiment towards future economic conditions fell by 6.5%. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell by 7.8%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Jobs figures catch up with economic reality

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 23-Oct-18

Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in September, but in reality the official jobless figure was merely moving into alignment with "shadow" labour market indicators. Macquarie Group economist Justin Fabo expects the unemployment rate to be just below five per cent at the end of 2019, while he estimates that a full employment rate in Australia equates to a jobless rate of about 4.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the majority of "shadow" indicators, including Roy Morgan’s household survey, point towards an inflection higher in the official jobless rate.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobless rate at lowest in seven years

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Oct-18

Australia’s headline unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in September, while the trend rate was steady at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank had forecast that the jobless rate would fall to five per cent by the end of 2020, and the latest figures have prompted speculation that it may begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. However, Craig James of the Commonwealth Bank does not expect it to take action while the official underemployment rate is 8.3 per cent. Meanwhile, Paul Dales of Capital Economics says a significant increase in wages may be dependent on the jobless rate falling to around four per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Job market dries up for low-skilled employees

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Original article by Anna Patty
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 18 : 18-Oct-18

Anglicare has released a report which notes that low-skilled entry-level jobs accounted for just 26,000 of the 185,662 vacancies that were advertised across Australia in May. The report adds that almost 111,000 people are competing for the limited number of entry-level jobs. This equates to an average of four people nationwide, although Anglicare notes that it is much higher in South Australia and Tasmania. Anglicare’s executive director Kasy Chambers says low-skilled, entry-level jobs are "slowly disappearing".

CORPORATES
ANGLICARE AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rises to 119.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% to 119.5 in the week ended 14 October, bringing the index to its highest level since late July. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.3% and sentiment towards future financial conditions rose 0.9%. However, sentiment towards current economic conditions fell by 1.9%, but sentiment towards future economic conditions jumped 3.3%.. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index registered its third consecutive weekly gain, increasing by 3.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations unchanged for a third straight month in September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Oct-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for September 2018. This is unchanged for the third straight month, but down 0.1% from September 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 15 straight months. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by generation compared to a year ago shows that Inflation Expectations are down for Millennials, Generation Z and Pre-Boomers, unchanged for Baby Boomers and up significantly for Generation X. September Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,304 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

IMF warns on debt and high house prices

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 11-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global financial stability report notes that Australia is one of several advanced economies where the rising cost of house prices is a concern. The IMF also expressed concern that the household debt-to-GDP ratio is rising in Australia and a number of other countries. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 122 per cent, while the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio is close to 200 per cent.

CORPORATES
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence consolidates to 117.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.7% to 117.3 in the week ended 7 October, reversing the gain of 0.7% in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2%, after three consecutive weekly gains. Sentiment towards future financial conditions fell 0.6%, adding to the fall of 1.2% in the previous week. Sentiment towards current and future economic conditions fell by 0.2% and 2.0% respectively, after both indices rose in the previous week. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index increased by 1.2%, its second consecutive weekly gain.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment down to 9.4% in September off two-year high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,164,000 Australians were employed in September, up 192,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 97,000 to 7,694,000) and part-time employment (up 95,000 to a record 4,470,000). The figures also show that 1,256,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, an increase of 54,000 on a year ago (up 0.3%). In addition, 1,127,000 Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 169,000 in a year (down 1.4%). In total 2,383,000 Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a fall of 115,000 in a year (down 1.1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for September remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for August of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says total unemployment and under-employment in Australia has now exceeded 2 million for three straight years. As we have noted previously, the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment is not because jobs aren’t being created, but because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence in September rebounds after leadership instability

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 1.3pts (+1.2%) to 111.5 in September 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence had improved in early August before plunging late in the month following the Liberal leadership instability. Business Confidence remains 1.7pts below its level in September 2017 and 4.7pts below its long-term average of 116.2. However, Business Confidence so far during 2018 has averaged 116.0, the highest yearly average since 2014. Businesses remain largely positive, with 51% (up 0.5ppts) expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next five years and 48.2% (up 0.4ppts) saying now is a "good time to invest in growing the business". Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that analysing Business Confidence by State shows that falls in Business Confidence in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have driven the overall figure down compared to a year ago. Importantly, both Victoria and New South Wales face State elections during the next six months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED