ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Banks turn off the investor tap

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 3-Jan-19

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that the nation’s four largest banks held $471.4bn worth of investor mortgage loans in the year to November 2018. This compares with $471.1bn for the same period in 2017. Westpac and National Australia Bank increased their investor loan books slightly, while the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ recorded declines. Meanwhile, Richard Wiles of Morgan Stanley says APRA’s recent move to abolish caps on interest-only loans is unlikely to boost the major banks’ growth in housing loans.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BANKWEST, ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED, BANK OF MELBOURNE LIMITED, BANK OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, P&N BANK, FINDER.COM.AU, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Private sector wage rises hit two-year high

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 2 : 21-Dec-18

The federal government has released data showing that there was an average pay rise of three per cent for new enterprise agreements struck in the private sector during the September quarter. However, the average pay rise for existing private-sector agreements was just 2.7 per cent. The number of private-sector workers who are covered by enterprise agreements fell by 90,000 during the quarter. Meanwhile, the average pay rise for public sector workers was 3.4 per cent in the quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, ACTU

Part-time workers drive jobs spike

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 21-Dec-18

Official data shows that the Australian economy added 37,000 jobs in November, with a 43,400-strong increase in part-time jobs offsetting the loss of 6,400 full-time positions during the month. The data shows that full- and part-time jobs have grown by 180,200 and 105,500 respectively over the last year. Meanwhile, Australia’s official unemployment rate rose from five per cent to 5.1 per cent in November, while the labour market participation rate increased by 0.2 per cent to 65.7 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, INDEED INCORPORATED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Goldman hits at doomsday savings chatter

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Original article by Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 21-Dec-18

Andrew Boak and Tom Kennedy have differing views on whether low savings rates are a sign that Australian consumers are optimistic. Boak, who is Goldman Sachs’ chief economist in Australia, believes that low saving rates show that consumers are using their savings to spend, and it reflects a sense of optimism. However, Kennedy, who is JP Morgan’s global fixed income strategist, says if consumers were feeling that optimistic this would also be reflected in similar moves in credit card debt and short-term debit items.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence levels to 117.8

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Dec-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.1% to 117.8 in the week ended 16 December, essentially unchanged from the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2%, while future financial condition were flat. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions rose 0.2%, but future economic conditions fell 0.9%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index rose 2.7%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Fall in ad spend the canary in coal mine

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Original article by Nick Tabakoff
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 18-Dec-18

Total advertising expenditure across all Australian media was down by over 10 per cent year-on-year in October, according to SMI. It is understood that figures for November will show a similar negative trend. Mark Coad, the CEO of media buyer PHD Australia, notes that advertising tends to be a good leading indicator of the overall economy, while fellow media buyer Chris Walton of Nunn Media says global factors such as the US-China trade war and Brexit could also be impacting on advertisers.

CORPORATES
SMI MEDIA INCORPORATED, PHD CREATIVE PTY LTD, NUNN MEDIA PTY LTD, UNILEVER PLC, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS, OMNICOM MEDIA GROUP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MEDIA FEDERATION OF AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 4.3% in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Dec-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for November 2018. This is down 0.2% on a month ago, and down 0.2% from November 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for nearly 18 straight months, since mid-2017. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Inflation Expectations for Liberal-National Party supporters were unchanged at 3.7% in November and remain clearly lower than for supporters of all other parties. Inflation Expectations for ALP supporters were unchanged at 4.2% in November and remain at their lowest since mid-2017. November Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,408 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

New housing loans drop 7.4pc in quarter

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 19 : 13-Dec-18

A new report from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that $89.2bn worth of new mortgage loans were written in the September quarter, which is 7.4 per cent lower than previously. However, authorised deposit-taking institutions have reported a 5.4 per cent increase in the total value of housing loans in the year to September. Chris Bedingfield of Quay Global Investors says the annual rate of house construction is now too high, given that banks are tightening their lending criteria. He adds that the Reserve Bank is now more likely to reduce rather than raise the cash rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, QUAY GLOBAL INVESTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Value of housing takes a $70bn hit

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Original article by Turi Condon, Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-Dec-18

Official data shows that the mean value of an Australian home fell by about $9,700 in the September quarter, to $675,000. The total value of the 10.1 million dwellings in Australia declined by $70.1bn in the quarter, to $6.8trn. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data also shows that dwelling prices in Melbourne fell by 2.6 per cent in the quarter and by 1.5 per cent year-on-year, while Sydney recorded falls of 1.9 per cent and 4.4 per cent respectively.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ERNST AND YOUNG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence drops to 117.7

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Dec-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.5% to 117.7 in the week ended 9 December, reversing the gains seen over the previous two weeks. However, consumer confidence remains well above its long-run average. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 0.7%, while future financial condition were up 1.7%. Consumers’ views toward current economic conditions fell 6% but future economic conditions were up a modest 0.3%. The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index was down 2.8%, its second straight loss after it made a solid gain in the second half of November.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ