ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Wage growth at zero puts lid on rate hikes

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 16-Aug-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the national wage price index ­increased by 2.1 per in the year to June, in line with the inflation rate. Wages in the private sector increased by two per cent, compared with 2.4 per cent growth in public sector wages. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital notes that annual wage growth would have been around 1.9 per cent without the increase in the minimum wage. The latest wage data is likely to ensure that official interest rates remain on hold for some time.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips to 118.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Aug-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.6% to 118.2 in the week ended 12 August, following a 0.8% decline in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.0%, only partially offsetting the cumulative 3.5% rise over the previous two weeks. However, views towards future financial conditions rose 2.6% to the highest point in eight weeks. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions declined another 1.7%, on the back of a 2.7% fall in the previous week. Views towards future economic conditions fell 0.3%, although this followed a 1.4% increase in the week prior. The "time to buy a household item" subindex slipped 2.5%, its fourth consecutive weekly fall.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment at 10% in July highest in nearly a year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Aug-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,021,000 Australians were employed in July, up 167,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by growth in both full-time employment (which was up 66,000 to 7,765,000) and an even stronger increase in part-time employment (up 101,000 to 4,256,000). The figures also show that 1,329,000 Australians were unemployed (10% of the workforce) in July, an increase of 93,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,148,000 Australians (8.6% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 78,000 in a year (down 0.8%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10% for July remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for June 2018 of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce has strengthened in recent years with the rise of the so-called "gig" economy, but Foodora’s impeding exit from the Australian market shows that there are limits to this type of employment model when regulatory and competition considerations are taken into account. Foodora’s exit also signifies how important it is for governments to create sensible industrial relations laws that encourage employers to take on new workers rather than penalise employers looking to grow their business.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Apartment slowdown a risk to wider industry

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 39 : 8-Aug-18

Australia’s Performance of Construction Index recorded overall growth of 1.4 points to 52.0 in July, marking the sector’s 18th consecutive month of growth. However, the sub-index for attached housing declined by 11.7 points to 36.7, and Peter Burn of the Australian Industry Group says the downturn in activity in the apartment sector could have implications for the broader construction industry if it is sustained.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops back to 118.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Aug-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.8% to 118.9 in the week ended 5 August, entirely reversing the previous week’s gain. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.5%, on the back of a 2.9% increase in the previous week, but sentiment around future financial conditions fell 1.3%. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions declined 2.7%, partially unwinding the 4.1% gain in the previous week. Meanwhile, views towards future economic conditions were up 1.4%, following a 0.3% rise in the previous week. The "time to buy a household item" subindex fell 1.7% to its lowest point in 16 weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

July Business Confidence down for third straight month to 113.6

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Aug-18

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 0.8pts (-0.7%) to 113.6 in July 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence has dropped below its level of a year ago for the first time in 2018 and is now 3.4pts lower than in July 2017, and 2.7pts below its long-term average of 116.3. However, despite falling for three consecutive months following the Federal Budget, Business Confidence throughout the first seven months of 2018 has averaged 117.5 – above the long-term average and the highest yearly average since 2014. Businesses remain largely positive, with 50.9% (up 4.4ppts) saying now is a "good time to invest in growing the business" and 50.5% (up 0.2ppts) expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that towards the end of July there was some good news for businesses, which traditionally prefer certainty rather than uncertainty. The victories for Labor at the "Super Saturday" by-elections removed the temptation for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to call an early election later this year. Turnbull has since confirmed that he plans on calling the next Federal Election in May 2019 and has re-affirmed the Government’s pledge to legislate further business tax cuts when Parliament resumes.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Inflation keeps RBA’s hands tied

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 26-Jul-18

Alex Joiner of IFM Investors says the latest inflation data is "underwhelming". Official figures show that consumer price inflation rose by a below-forecast 0.4 per cent in the June quarter and by 2.1 per cent in the year to June. The underlying inflation rate fell below the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent. Justin Smirk of Westpac notes that inflation data has now been below consensus forecasts for a record seventh successive quarter.

CORPORATES
IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Slowdown in east coast housing gathers speed

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 26-Jul-18

Data from Domain Holdings shows that Australia’s median house price fell by one per cent to $802,077 in the June 2018 quarter. The median house price in Sydney eased 1.4 per cent in the quarter, to $1,144,217, with the median unit price down 0.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Sydney’s median house price was 4.5 per cent lower in the year to June, with the median unit price down 3.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the median house price in Melbourne fell by 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, although it rose 0.5 per cent year-on-year.

CORPORATES
DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Petrol prices to drive inflation higher

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Jul-18

The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg is for consumer price inflation of 0.5 per cent in the June quarter, compared with 0.4 per cent in the March quarter. Australia’s consumer price inflation is forecast to have risen to 2.2 per cent in the year to June, up from 1.9 per cent previously. A sharp rise in the price of petrol in the June quarter is tipped to have been a major contributor to the rise in the inflation rate. Economists do not expect the latest inflation data to have a material impact on the outlook for official interest rates.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SOCIETE GENERALE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 118.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.1% to 118.9 in the week ended 22 July, to its lowest value in seven weeks. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.9%, more than reversing the 1.5% bounce in the previous week. Similarly, households were also less optimistic about future financial conditions, which fell 1.4%. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions weakened by 3.8%, more than unwinding the cumulative 2.8% rise of the previous two weeks. Views towards future economic conditions declined 3.9% to 112.7. Both subindices are at their lowest points in seven weeks. The "time to buy a household item" subindex was flat (-0.1%), holding on to its 2.4% gain in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ