ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Tough times for builders: housing starts to fall 22pc

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 23-Jul-18

The Housing Industry Association had forecast in February that housing starts will decline to 174,880 in 2020. BIS Oxford Economics in turn has predicted that housing starts will fall from 2018’s estimated figure of 219,000 to 171,350 in 2020, equating to a 22 per cent fall. The forecast decline in housing starts is expected to be led by a significant downturn in the construction of high-density dwellings. There have been a number of building company failures in recent months, the latest being home renovator Dowling Homes.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, DOWLING HOMES, BRI FERRIER PTY LTD, BAYSIDE CONSTRUCT, PROJECT GROUP, WATERSUN HOMES

Home buyers falling behind in repayments

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 21 : 20-Jul-18

The Northern Territory had the highest percentage of mortgage borrowers who were in arrears among all Australian states and territories in May 2018, according to Standard & Poor’s. Victoria and Western Australia recorded a decline in borrowers who were in arrears, while New South Wales and Queensland recorded an increase. Overall, the number of Australian borrowers falling behind on their mortgage repayments increased by two basis points to 1.38 per cent in May.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobs boom raises stakes for RBA

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 20-Jul-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent in June, with the economy adding a higher-than-expected 50,900 jobs. This comprised 41,200 full-time and 9,700 part-time jobs. The data prompted a rebound in the Australian dollar on 19 July, while it may put pressure on the Reserve Bank to move more quickly to tighten monetary policy. The trend jobless rate was last at its current level in November 2012, when the cash rate was 3.25 per cent, compared with 1.5 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Australia’s unemployed have the highest Inflation Expectations at 5.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jul-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for June 2018. This is up 0.2% from a month ago, and up 0.3% on June 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3%-4.5% for 12 straight months since July 2017. Following this month’s fall, Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by employment status shows that Inflation Expectations are up amongst all categories over the past year. The biggest increase is for unemployed Australians, who now have Inflation Expectations of 5.5% (up a significant 0.7% from a year ago), while the smallest increase is for Australians employed full-time (up only 0.2% to 4% and the lowest of any employment category). June Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,300 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 121.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 121.5 in the week ended 15 July, following four straight weekly declines. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1.5%, partially recovering from the 2.7% decline in the previous week. Sentiment around future financial conditions rose 0.5% on the back of a 1.5% rise in the previous week. Households’ assessment of current economic conditions was broadly flat (0.2%), following a solid 2.7% rise previously. Consumers’ views towards future economic conditions improved 1.2%. Both subindices sit above their long-term averages. The "time to buy a household item" subindex bounced 2.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Banks face $70b gap in funding

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Jul-18

Australia’s banks have experienced an increase in the gap between bank loans and deposits, according to National Australia Bank analysis. The funding gap rose from $A390 billion in the June 2017 quarter to $A457 million in the March 2018 quarter. The increase was attributed to households needing to access more of their savings and superannuation funds shifting their cash into other asset classes. Banks increased lending by 4.8 per cent in the 12 months to May, but deposits rose by just over two per cent.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, TD SECURITIES, THE ASSOCIATION OF SUPERANNUATION FUNDS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence cools down to 120.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.2% to 120.1 in the week ended 8 July. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, following two consecutive 2.8% rises in the previous weeks. Meanwhile, sentiment around future financial conditions rose 1.5% on the back of a 0.2% bounce previously. Households’ views towards current economic conditions bounced 2.7%, partially reversing the previous week’s 6.6% fall. Similarly, views towards future economic conditions improved 1.6%, following a 2.5% decline the previous week. Both sub-indices sit above their long-term average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment drops to 8.7% in June, lowest since 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,245,000 Australians were employed in June 2018, down 85,000 over the last year. The fall was driven by a drop in full-time employment, which was down 300,000 to 7,800,000; part-time employment increased by 215,000 to 4,445,000. The figures also show that 1,171,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) in June, a decrease of 29,000 (down 0.2%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,302,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 143,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for June remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for May of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that over 2.4 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work in June explains why wage growth remains at record lows. Improving wage growth and the performance of the Australian economy is as simple as designing policies that engage these under-utilised workers and encourage employers to offer more jobs, and more hours, to Australians who want more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

June Business Confidence down to 114.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 2.7pts (-2.3%) to 114.4 in June 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. However, it remains 2.6pts higher than a year ago and continues its best start to a year since 2014. Business Confidence traditionally falls in the months immediately following the Federal Budget and this year is no exception. Business Confidence has now decreased in six out of the last eight years in the two months following the Federal Budget (May and June). Despite the overall fall in confidence, businesses are still largely confident about the prospects for the Australian economy; 54.2% (down 0.2ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next 12 months and 50.3% (down 1.2ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the decision by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to support the Federal Government’s company tax cuts for any business turning over up to $50 million came too late to impact Business Confidence in June but will support Business Confidence in July and following months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 120.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.8% to 120.4 in the week ended 1 July. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.8% to 109.7, the highest in six weeks. Sentiment around future financial conditions edged up 0.2% following a 6.5% fall previously. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions fell 6.6%, more than unwinding the previous week’s 5.0% gain. Views towards future economic conditions were down 2.5%, after remaining unchanged the prior week. Despite this, both sub-indices sit above their long-term average. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index rose 1.5%, partially recovering from the 2.3% fall previously.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ