ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Inflation Expectations unchanged for a third straight month in September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Oct-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for September 2018. This is unchanged for the third straight month, but down 0.1% from September 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 15 straight months. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by generation compared to a year ago shows that Inflation Expectations are down for Millennials, Generation Z and Pre-Boomers, unchanged for Baby Boomers and up significantly for Generation X. September Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,304 Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

IMF warns on debt and high house prices

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 11-Oct-18

The International Monetary Fund’s latest global financial stability report notes that Australia is one of several advanced economies where the rising cost of house prices is a concern. The IMF also expressed concern that the household debt-to-GDP ratio is rising in Australia and a number of other countries. Australia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio is currently around 122 per cent, while the nation’s household debt-to-income ratio is close to 200 per cent.

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence consolidates to 117.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.7% to 117.3 in the week ended 7 October, reversing the gain of 0.7% in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2%, after three consecutive weekly gains. Sentiment towards future financial conditions fell 0.6%, adding to the fall of 1.2% in the previous week. Sentiment towards current and future economic conditions fell by 0.2% and 2.0% respectively, after both indices rose in the previous week. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index increased by 1.2%, its second consecutive weekly gain.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment down to 9.4% in September off two-year high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,164,000 Australians were employed in September, up 192,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 97,000 to 7,694,000) and part-time employment (up 95,000 to a record 4,470,000). The figures also show that 1,256,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, an increase of 54,000 on a year ago (up 0.3%). In addition, 1,127,000 Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 169,000 in a year (down 1.4%). In total 2,383,000 Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a fall of 115,000 in a year (down 1.1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for September remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for August of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says total unemployment and under-employment in Australia has now exceeded 2 million for three straight years. As we have noted previously, the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment is not because jobs aren’t being created, but because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Business Confidence in September rebounds after leadership instability

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 1.3pts (+1.2%) to 111.5 in September 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence had improved in early August before plunging late in the month following the Liberal leadership instability. Business Confidence remains 1.7pts below its level in September 2017 and 4.7pts below its long-term average of 116.2. However, Business Confidence so far during 2018 has averaged 116.0, the highest yearly average since 2014. Businesses remain largely positive, with 51% (up 0.5ppts) expecting "good times" for the Australian economy over the next five years and 48.2% (up 0.4ppts) saying now is a "good time to invest in growing the business". Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that analysing Business Confidence by State shows that falls in Business Confidence in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have driven the overall figure down compared to a year ago. Importantly, both Victoria and New South Wales face State elections during the next six months.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

New home sales have fallen 27pc from their 2014 peak, HIA says

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 5-Oct-18

The Housing Industry Association has reported that new home sales posted a 2.9 per cent month-on-month decline in August, following a 3.1 per cent fall in July. New home sales fell by 7.3 per cent in New South Wales and by 7.1 per cent in Victoria, although Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia all recorded increases. New home sales are now down 27.1 per cent since their April 2014 peak, while the HIA is tipping that new home construction will fall by 10.6 per cent in 2019.

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HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence consolidates to 118.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Oct-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.8% to 118.1 in the week ended 30 September, reversing the fall of 0.7% in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions rose 0.7%, its third consecutive weekly gain. Sentiment towards future financial conditions fell 1.2%, only partially reversing the previous week’s 2.4% rise. Sentiment towards current and future economic conditions rose by 2.1% and 1.3% respectively, after both indices fell in the previous week. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index increased by 1.3%, compared to a fall of 4% in the previous week.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 117.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Sep-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.7 to 117.2 in the week ended 23 September, partially reversing the rise of 1.5% in the previous week. Households’ views towards current financial conditions improved 3.5%, building on the gain of 3.7% the previous week. Sentiment towards future financial conditions rose 2.4%, more than reversing the 0.4% fall in the previous week. However, sentiment towards current and future economic conditions fell 1.9% and 3.0% respectively. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index declined by 4%, compared to a rise of 2.3% in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations for employed Australians lower than a year ago

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for August 2018. This is unchanged on a month ago, but down 0.2% from August 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3-4.5% for 14 straight months. Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by employment status shows that Inflation Expectations for employed Australians dropped to 3.9% in August 2018, down 0.4% on a year ago. In comparison, Australians who are not employed – including retirees, students, those on home duties, those choosing to not work and the unemployed – increased by 0.1% to 4.9%. August Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,385 Australians aged 14+.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Technology’s part in the puzzle of why wages won’t rise

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 19-Sep-18

The Reserve Bank still anticipates a gradual increase in wages growth, according to the minutes of its monthly board meeting. Meanwhile, independent economist Geoff Weir has suggested that the rate at which companies adopt new technologies is contributing to the low growth in wages. The central bank will publish a paper by Weir in which he notes that companies which act more quickly to embrace new technologies tend to enjoy higher productivity and profits, with some of these gains being passed on to employees via wage rises.

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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA