ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 121.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 121.5 in the week ended 15 July, following four straight weekly declines. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1.5%, partially recovering from the 2.7% decline in the previous week. Sentiment around future financial conditions rose 0.5% on the back of a 1.5% rise in the previous week. Households’ assessment of current economic conditions was broadly flat (0.2%), following a solid 2.7% rise previously. Consumers’ views towards future economic conditions improved 1.2%. Both subindices sit above their long-term averages. The "time to buy a household item" subindex bounced 2.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Banks face $70b gap in funding

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Jul-18

Australia’s banks have experienced an increase in the gap between bank loans and deposits, according to National Australia Bank analysis. The funding gap rose from $A390 billion in the June 2017 quarter to $A457 million in the March 2018 quarter. The increase was attributed to households needing to access more of their savings and superannuation funds shifting their cash into other asset classes. Banks increased lending by 4.8 per cent in the 12 months to May, but deposits rose by just over two per cent.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, TD SECURITIES, THE ASSOCIATION OF SUPERANNUATION FUNDS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence cools down to 120.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.2% to 120.1 in the week ended 8 July. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, following two consecutive 2.8% rises in the previous weeks. Meanwhile, sentiment around future financial conditions rose 1.5% on the back of a 0.2% bounce previously. Households’ views towards current economic conditions bounced 2.7%, partially reversing the previous week’s 6.6% fall. Similarly, views towards future economic conditions improved 1.6%, following a 2.5% decline the previous week. Both sub-indices sit above their long-term average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment drops to 8.7% in June, lowest since 2016

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,245,000 Australians were employed in June 2018, down 85,000 over the last year. The fall was driven by a drop in full-time employment, which was down 300,000 to 7,800,000; part-time employment increased by 215,000 to 4,445,000. The figures also show that 1,171,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) in June, a decrease of 29,000 (down 0.2%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,302,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 143,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for June remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for May of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that over 2.4 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work in June explains why wage growth remains at record lows. Improving wage growth and the performance of the Australian economy is as simple as designing policies that engage these under-utilised workers and encourage employers to offer more jobs, and more hours, to Australians who want more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

June Business Confidence down to 114.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 2.7pts (-2.3%) to 114.4 in June 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. However, it remains 2.6pts higher than a year ago and continues its best start to a year since 2014. Business Confidence traditionally falls in the months immediately following the Federal Budget and this year is no exception. Business Confidence has now decreased in six out of the last eight years in the two months following the Federal Budget (May and June). Despite the overall fall in confidence, businesses are still largely confident about the prospects for the Australian economy; 54.2% (down 0.2ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next 12 months and 50.3% (down 1.2ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the decision by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to support the Federal Government’s company tax cuts for any business turning over up to $50 million came too late to impact Business Confidence in June but will support Business Confidence in July and following months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 120.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.8% to 120.4 in the week ended 1 July. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.8% to 109.7, the highest in six weeks. Sentiment around future financial conditions edged up 0.2% following a 6.5% fall previously. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions fell 6.6%, more than unwinding the previous week’s 5.0% gain. Views towards future economic conditions were down 2.5%, after remaining unchanged the prior week. Despite this, both sub-indices sit above their long-term average. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index rose 1.5%, partially recovering from the 2.3% fall previously.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips to 121.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jun-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.6% to 121.4 in the week ended 24 June. The four-week moving average ticked up to 120.8, the highest in four months. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions strengthened by 2.8%, while consumers’ views towards future conditions worsened by 6.5% after three straight weekly gains. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions rose 5.0% to 116.5, to reach a four-month high. The future economic conditions index remained unchanged at 117. Both indices are comfortably above their long-term average. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell 2.3% to 143.0.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Young Women have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for May 2018. This is down 0.2% from a month ago, but unchanged on May 2017. Following this month’s fall Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by gender and age shows that women have higher Inflation Expectations than similarly aged men. Women aged 14-34 continue to have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations, while middle-aged men aged 50-64 have the lowest Inflation Expectations of any gender and age. May Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,112 Australians.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA to keep interest rates on hold until 2020: Macquarie

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 22-Jun-18

Macquarie Group economists Ric Deverell and Justin Fabo forecast that Australia’s unemployment rate will not fall below five per cent until 2020. They warn that "persistent" spare capacity in the economy will ensure that wages growth remains subdued in the near-term. As a result, they do not expect the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy until at least 2020. However, they note that a number of domestic and international factors could affect the timing of an interest rate rise.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Wage growth dive makes us glum

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Original article by Peter Martin
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 18 : 21-Jun-18

Growth in Australian wages has traditionally averaged almost four per cent a year, but wages growth had fallen to just two per cent by 2016. Wages growth remains low, despite the fact that the unemployment rate is at around the same level as it was in 2012. The declining influence of unions in the workplace has contributed to the subdued wages growth, as have large-scale job losses in the public and private sectors. In addition, many employers are reining in their wage costs in anticipation of another global financial crisis, given that pay cuts were not feasible during the last one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, BANK OF ENGLAND