ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Coalition achieves million jobs vow

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 6 : 18-May-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 5.5 per cent to a nine-month high of 5.6 per cent in April. Some 23,000 jobs were created in April, and the economy has added 1.014 million jobs since the Coalition won office in September 2013. Former prime minister Tony Abbott had made an election commitment to generate one million new jobs during the first five years of a Coalition government. Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes that the construction and healthcare sectors accounted for more than 50 per cent of the jobs created during 2017.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Flat wages cast doubt on budget

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-May-18

New figures show that Australian wages rose by just 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, unchanged from the three months to December. Independent economist Saul Eslake says the wage price index data may undermine the Federal Government’s forecast for a Budget surplus in 2019-20, which is dependent on growth in wages and consumer spending. The subdued growth in wages may also affect the outlook for official interest rates, with Sarah Hunger of BIS Oxford Economics suggesting that the cash rate could potentially be on hold until 2020.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence continues to recover post-Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-May-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.0% to 120.8 in the week ended 13 May, to its highest level in 14 weeks. The details were broadly positive, with four out of five subindices posting gains. Households’ views toward current financial conditions rose 0.7%, largely recovering from the 0.8% fall previously. Views towards future financial conditions rose 1.4%, partially reversing the 3.2% fall previously. Both subindices remain above their long term averages. Sentiment around current economic conditions rose 2.4% to 113.2, the highest level in 14 weeks. At the same time, views towards future economic conditions rose 3.7% to 117.5, the highest level in 15 weeks. However, the "time to buy a household item" subindex fell 2.7%, partially undoing the 5.0% gain in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence remains elevated at 119.6 pre-Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-May-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.3% to 119.6 in the week ended 5 May, to its highest level in 13 weeks. The details were mixed, with a solid rise in "time to buy a household item" offset by falls in three of the remaining sub-indices. Households’ views toward current financial conditions eased 0.8%, following a 1.7% rise previously. Views towards future conditions declined 3.2%, after three straight weekly gains. Both sub-indices remain above their long term averages. Consumers were less optimistic about year-ahead economic conditions, with sentiment dipping 0.9%, ending the streak of five consecutive weekly gains. Meanwhile, views towards future conditions rose 1.2%, entirely reversing the previous week’s 0.7% decline.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence strengthens to 118.6 before Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 3.2pts (+2.8%) to 118.6 in April 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence is now 2pts higher than a year ago, continuing its best start to a year since 2014. Business Confidence traditionally increases in April in the run-up to a Federal Budget, and it has now increased in five out of eight years in April. However, recent history shows that expectations are not generally met and Business Confidence has declined in six out of seven years in May. Now a record high 52.3% (up 13.6ppts) of businesses say their business is "better off" financially than this time last year, and a record high 59.4% (up 8.2ppts) say the business will be "better off" financially this time next year. Meanwhile, 52.6% (up 0.3ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next year, and 51.6% (up 2.6ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Part-time employment hits record high and 1.35m now under-employed

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 11,962,000 Australians were employed in April 2018 – an increase of 46,000 over the last year. The increase was driven by part-time employment, which rose 154,000 to a record 4,454,000; full-time employment was down 108,000 to 7,508,000. The figures also show that 1,196,000 million Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce) in April, a decrease of 88,000 (down 0.7%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,349,000 Australians (10.2% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 259,000 in a year (up 1.9%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.1% for April is substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for March of 5.5%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the continuing strength in part-time employment is causing under-employment levels to spike from already high levels, and it is imperative that the May 2018 Federal Budget seriously considers the continuing high levels of unemployment and under-employment.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in third consecutive rise up 0.8pts to 119.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-May-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.7% to 119.2 in the week ended 29 April, its highest value in 11 weeks. Households’ views toward current financial conditions bounced 1.7% following a 2.4% decline previously. Views towards future conditions edged up 0.2%, the third straight weekly increase. Both sub-indices remain above their long-term averages. Consumers continued to be optimistic about year-ahead economic conditions, with sentiment rising a solid 3.9% after a similar rise in the previous week. Views towards future conditions were more restrained. This sub-index slipped 0.7%, partially reversing the previous week’s 3.2% rise. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index eased 0.9% off a solid 4.1% bounce previously. Inflation expectations remained steady at 4.4% on a weekly basis.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations down again in March before Federal Budget in early May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for March 2018. This is down 0.1% from a month ago, the second straight monthly fall, and also down 0.1% from March 2017. Inflation Expectations have now fallen for two consecutive months for the first time since June 2017 and are lower year over year for the first time since December 2016. Following these consecutive decreases Inflation Expectations are now well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by political affiliation shows that ALP supporters are driving the fall, with the Inflation Expectations of L-NP supporters unchanged on a year ago and Greens supporters now with slightly higher Inflation Expectations.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Fuel and education could flatter CPI result

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 24-Apr-18

Analysts are expecting Australia’s consumer price index for the March quarter to be up 0.5 per cent when official figures are released on 1 May. This figure would mean an annual CPI increase of 1.9 per cent. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura, who has proven to be the most accurate forecaster taking part in Bloomberg’s survey, is tipping a headline figure of 0.6 per cent. Ticehurst thinks increases in education, fuel, electricity and tobacco costs will have the most impact on the CPI result.

CORPORATES
NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobs market hits wall after record surge

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 20-Apr-18

Official data shows that the number of full-time jobs in Australia fell by 7,500 in the March quarter, although 43,000 part-time jobs were created. The economy added 4,900 jobs in March, compared with market expectations of 20,000. Despite the economy’s failure to sustain the momentum that saw more than 430,000 jobs created in the year to January, Employment Minister Michaelia Cash argues that growth in both full and part-time employment is higher than a year ago. She adds that 996,800 jobs have been created since the Coalition won the 2013 federal election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB