ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Petrol prices to drive inflation higher

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Jul-18

The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg is for consumer price inflation of 0.5 per cent in the June quarter, compared with 0.4 per cent in the March quarter. Australia’s consumer price inflation is forecast to have risen to 2.2 per cent in the year to June, up from 1.9 per cent previously. A sharp rise in the price of petrol in the June quarter is tipped to have been a major contributor to the rise in the inflation rate. Economists do not expect the latest inflation data to have a material impact on the outlook for official interest rates.

CORPORATES
BLOOMBERG LP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SOCIETE GENERALE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 118.9

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.1% to 118.9 in the week ended 22 July, to its lowest value in seven weeks. Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.9%, more than reversing the 1.5% bounce in the previous week. Similarly, households were also less optimistic about future financial conditions, which fell 1.4%. Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions weakened by 3.8%, more than unwinding the cumulative 2.8% rise of the previous two weeks. Views towards future economic conditions declined 3.9% to 112.7. Both subindices are at their lowest points in seven weeks. The "time to buy a household item" subindex was flat (-0.1%), holding on to its 2.4% gain in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Tough times for builders: housing starts to fall 22pc

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 23-Jul-18

The Housing Industry Association had forecast in February that housing starts will decline to 174,880 in 2020. BIS Oxford Economics in turn has predicted that housing starts will fall from 2018’s estimated figure of 219,000 to 171,350 in 2020, equating to a 22 per cent fall. The forecast decline in housing starts is expected to be led by a significant downturn in the construction of high-density dwellings. There have been a number of building company failures in recent months, the latest being home renovator Dowling Homes.

CORPORATES
HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, DOWLING HOMES, BRI FERRIER PTY LTD, BAYSIDE CONSTRUCT, PROJECT GROUP, WATERSUN HOMES

Home buyers falling behind in repayments

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 21 : 20-Jul-18

The Northern Territory had the highest percentage of mortgage borrowers who were in arrears among all Australian states and territories in May 2018, according to Standard & Poor’s. Victoria and Western Australia recorded a decline in borrowers who were in arrears, while New South Wales and Queensland recorded an increase. Overall, the number of Australian borrowers falling behind on their mortgage repayments increased by two basis points to 1.38 per cent in May.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobs boom raises stakes for RBA

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 20-Jul-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate was steady at 5.4 per cent in June, with the economy adding a higher-than-expected 50,900 jobs. This comprised 41,200 full-time and 9,700 part-time jobs. The data prompted a rebound in the Australian dollar on 19 July, while it may put pressure on the Reserve Bank to move more quickly to tighten monetary policy. The trend jobless rate was last at its current level in November 2012, when the cash rate was 3.25 per cent, compared with 1.5 per cent at present.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TD SECURITIES, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Australia’s unemployed have the highest Inflation Expectations at 5.5%

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jul-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for June 2018. This is up 0.2% from a month ago, and up 0.3% on June 2017. Inflation Expectations have now tracked in a narrow range between 4.3%-4.5% for 12 straight months since July 2017. Following this month’s fall, Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by employment status shows that Inflation Expectations are up amongst all categories over the past year. The biggest increase is for unemployed Australians, who now have Inflation Expectations of 5.5% (up a significant 0.7% from a year ago), while the smallest increase is for Australians employed full-time (up only 0.2% to 4% and the lowest of any employment category). June Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,300 Australians aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up to 121.5

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 1.2% to 121.5 in the week ended 15 July, following four straight weekly declines. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 1.5%, partially recovering from the 2.7% decline in the previous week. Sentiment around future financial conditions rose 0.5% on the back of a 1.5% rise in the previous week. Households’ assessment of current economic conditions was broadly flat (0.2%), following a solid 2.7% rise previously. Consumers’ views towards future economic conditions improved 1.2%. Both subindices sit above their long-term averages. The "time to buy a household item" subindex bounced 2.4%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Banks face $70b gap in funding

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Jul-18

Australia’s banks have experienced an increase in the gap between bank loans and deposits, according to National Australia Bank analysis. The funding gap rose from $A390 billion in the June 2017 quarter to $A457 million in the March 2018 quarter. The increase was attributed to households needing to access more of their savings and superannuation funds shifting their cash into other asset classes. Banks increased lending by 4.8 per cent in the 12 months to May, but deposits rose by just over two per cent.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, TD SECURITIES, THE ASSOCIATION OF SUPERANNUATION FUNDS OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence cools down to 120.1

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.2% to 120.1 in the week ended 8 July. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 2.7%, following two consecutive 2.8% rises in the previous weeks. Meanwhile, sentiment around future financial conditions rose 1.5% on the back of a 0.2% bounce previously. Households’ views towards current economic conditions bounced 2.7%, partially reversing the previous week’s 6.6% fall. Similarly, views towards future economic conditions improved 1.6%, following a 2.5% decline the previous week. Both sub-indices sit above their long-term average.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Unemployment drops to 8.7% in June, lowest since 2016

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,245,000 Australians were employed in June 2018, down 85,000 over the last year. The fall was driven by a drop in full-time employment, which was down 300,000 to 7,800,000; part-time employment increased by 215,000 to 4,445,000. The figures also show that 1,171,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) in June, a decrease of 29,000 (down 0.2%) on a year ago. In addition, 1,302,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 143,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 8.7% for June remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for May of 5.4%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that over 2.4 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work in June explains why wage growth remains at record lows. Improving wage growth and the performance of the Australian economy is as simple as designing policies that engage these under-utilised workers and encourage employers to offer more jobs, and more hours, to Australians who want more work.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION