ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Jobs cool RBA’s outlook on rates

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 30 : 23-Mar-18

The Australian dollar fell in local trading on 22 March in response to data showing that the number of jobs created in February was below expectations at 17,500. Australia’s unemployment rate rose from 5.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent during the month, while the labour participation rate also increased. Economists suggest that the jobs data means the Reserve Bank is unlikely to increase official interest rates in the near-term. Meanwhile, the strength of the US economy has prompted the Federal Reserve to flag three interest rates rises in 2019, in addition to another two in 2018.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.5pts to 118.5

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Mar-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.2% to 118.5 in the week ended 8 March, largely reversing the previous 2.5% decline. The improvement in sentiment was broad based, with households particularly optimistic about near-term financial conditions. Views towards current economic conditions edged up 0.3%. This subindex remains well above its long-term average. Sentiment around future conditions rose 1.2%, undoing much of the 1.9% decline in the previous week. Household sentiment towards current and future financial conditions improved materially (6.4% and 2.6% respectively), following consecutive falls in the two previous weeks.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Japan rises to second-biggest trade partner

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Original article by Rowan Callick
The Australian – Page: 21 : 19-Mar-18

New figures show that Japan has again become Australia’s second-biggest trading partner, having relinquished this status to the US in 2015-16. There was an 18 per cent increase in Australian exports to Japan in 2016-17, while the total value of two-way trade between Australia and Japan rose by 13 per cent to $A69bn. Two-way trade between Australia and the US totalled $A66bn. The figures also show that Australia exported a total of $A63bn worth of iron ore in 2016-17, ahead of coal ($A54bn) and education services ($A28bn).

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA JAPAN ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE. BUREAU OF RESOURCES AND ENERGY ECONOMICS, IMPEX CORPORATION, JERA, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down 3pts to 116.0 after poor GDP result

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Mar-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.5% to 116 in the week ended 11 March, partially unwinding gains over the previous two weeks. The fall was broad-based, with households particularly pessimistic about current financial conditions. Views towards current economic conditions declined 3.5%, partially reversing the previous 5.1% rise. Sentiment around future conditions slipped 1.9%. The future conditions index still remains well above the levels seen for most of 2017, although it has slipped below its long-run average. Households’ pessimism towards financial conditions extended the previous week’s move, with the current and future sub-indices falling 5.5% and 1.0%, bringing them to five and 14-week lows respectively.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Trade balance back in the black

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 6 : 9-Mar-18

Australia posted a trade surplus of $A1.1bn in January 2018, following a deficit in December. The trade figures were bolstered by growing demand in Asia for the nation’s resources commodities, and Asia’s share of Australia’s overall exports has risen from 61 per cent to 75 per cent over the last decade. In contrast, the US now accounts for less than four per cent of Australia’s exports. Meanwhile, China recorded a trade surplus of $US34bn in January, while the US posted a deficit of $US57bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED

Jobs surge but economy still stuck in neutral

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 4 : 8-Mar-18

Australia’s latest national accounts data shows that the economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the December 2017 quarter, and 2.4 per cent year-on-year. However, consumer spending grew by one per cent during the quarter, after revised growth of 0.5 per cent in the September quarter. Andrew Hanlan of Westpac warns that the strong growth in consumer spending may not last, noting the low growth in wages and the high level of consumer debt. The data shows that there was zero growth in the average wage during the December quarter, with annual wages growth of 1.6 per cent.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating up 0.9% to 119.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Mar-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.9% to 119.0 in the week ended 4 March. The result was mixed, with two of five sub-indices showing declines. Sentiment about current economic conditions remained strong, with a rise of 5.1% on a weekly basis. Future economic sentiment was up 0.9%, following a strong gain of 6.0% in the previous reading. Both indices remain above or close to their long run averages. Views about financial situations deteriorated a touch after strong readings over the previous week. The future financial situation sub-index fell 0.7%, while current financial conditions dropped 1.0% to 109.3.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

APRA relaxes as home boom ends

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 22 : 2-Mar-18

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has told a Senate committee that the slowing residential property market may reduce the need to cap annual growth in lending to investors. The latest data shows that there has been a sharp fall in lending to investors, while credit growth across the economy has also slowed. However, a number of lenders have recently moved to reduce the interest rates on their interest-only investment loans. Morgan Stanley forecasts a further slowdown in both credit growth and the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, ING BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, VIRGIN MONEY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ADELAIDE BANK, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION

Australian Inflation Expectations unchanged at 4.5% to start 2018

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 2-Mar-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.5% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for January 2018. This is unchanged for a third straight month and also unchanged from January 2017. Inflation Expectations have levelled off in recent months after rising throughout the last year; 2017 was the first year since the series began in 2010 that Inflation Expectations were higher year-over-year in every month. Despite the increases throughout 2017, Inflation Expectations remain well below the seven-year average of 5.0%. Analysis by State shows that Inflation Expectations remain the highest in Queensland at 4.8%, with the southern States of Victoria and Tasmania both on 4.7%, and South Australia on 4.6% also above the national average. Analysis by Federal voting intention shows that ALP supporters (4.5%) have Inflation Expectations equal to the national average, above those of L-NP supporters (4.1%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up 2.3% to 117.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.3% to 117.9 in the week ended 25 February, partially recovering from the 3.5% fall the previous week. The details were broadly positive, with four out of five sub-indices posting gains. Views towards current economic conditions firmed 0.4% after sharp losses in the previous two weeks. While views toward current economic conditions have only stabilised after these falls, they remain above their-long term average. Consumers were more optimistic about future conditions, with this sub-index bouncing 6% and almost offsetting the 8.8% drop in the previous week. Views towards current finances jumped 6%, bringing the sub-index to a six-week high of 110.4. The recovery in sentiment around future conditions was more modest (1.5%), offsetting the 1.3% fall in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ