ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

June Business Confidence down to 114.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jul-18

In Australia, Business Confidence fell 2.7pts (-2.3%) to 114.4 in June 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. However, it remains 2.6pts higher than a year ago and continues its best start to a year since 2014. Business Confidence traditionally falls in the months immediately following the Federal Budget and this year is no exception. Business Confidence has now decreased in six out of the last eight years in the two months following the Federal Budget (May and June). Despite the overall fall in confidence, businesses are still largely confident about the prospects for the Australian economy; 54.2% (down 0.2ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next 12 months and 50.3% (down 1.2ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the decision by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to support the Federal Government’s company tax cuts for any business turning over up to $50 million came too late to impact Business Confidence in June but will support Business Confidence in July and following months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence consolidates to 120.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 4-Jul-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.8% to 120.4 in the week ended 1 July. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 2.8% to 109.7, the highest in six weeks. Sentiment around future financial conditions edged up 0.2% following a 6.5% fall previously. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions fell 6.6%, more than unwinding the previous week’s 5.0% gain. Views towards future economic conditions were down 2.5%, after remaining unchanged the prior week. Despite this, both sub-indices sit above their long-term average. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index rose 1.5%, partially recovering from the 2.3% fall previously.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips to 121.4

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Jun-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.6% to 121.4 in the week ended 24 June. The four-week moving average ticked up to 120.8, the highest in four months. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions strengthened by 2.8%, while consumers’ views towards future conditions worsened by 6.5% after three straight weekly gains. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions rose 5.0% to 116.5, to reach a four-month high. The future economic conditions index remained unchanged at 117. Both indices are comfortably above their long-term average. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index fell 2.3% to 143.0.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Young Women have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Jun-18

Australians aged +14 expect inflation of 4.3% per year over the next two years, according to the Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index for May 2018. This is down 0.2% from a month ago, but unchanged on May 2017. Following this month’s fall Inflation Expectations remain well below the eight-year average of 5.0%. Analysing Inflation Expectations by gender and age shows that women have higher Inflation Expectations than similarly aged men. Women aged 14-34 continue to have Australia’s highest Inflation Expectations, while middle-aged men aged 50-64 have the lowest Inflation Expectations of any gender and age. May Inflation Expectations are based on a nationwide face-to-face survey of 4,112 Australians.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

RBA to keep interest rates on hold until 2020: Macquarie

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 22-Jun-18

Macquarie Group economists Ric Deverell and Justin Fabo forecast that Australia’s unemployment rate will not fall below five per cent until 2020. They warn that "persistent" spare capacity in the economy will ensure that wages growth remains subdued in the near-term. As a result, they do not expect the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy until at least 2020. However, they note that a number of domestic and international factors could affect the timing of an interest rate rise.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Wage growth dive makes us glum

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Original article by Peter Martin
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 18 : 21-Jun-18

Growth in Australian wages has traditionally averaged almost four per cent a year, but wages growth had fallen to just two per cent by 2016. Wages growth remains low, despite the fact that the unemployment rate is at around the same level as it was in 2012. The declining influence of unions in the workplace has contributed to the subdued wages growth, as have large-scale job losses in the public and private sectors. In addition, many employers are reining in their wage costs in anticipation of another global financial crisis, given that pay cuts were not feasible during the last one.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, BANK OF ENGLAND

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence consolidates at 122.1

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Jun-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 0.7% to 122.1 in the week ended 17 June, following a 5.6% jump the previous week and leaving the index comfortably above its long-term average. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions fell 4.9%, but remain above the long-term average. Consumers’ views towards future financial conditions rose 3.1%, building on the 1.6% gain in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions fell 3.8% to 110.9, reversing some of the 8.9% gain posted in the previous week, while views towards future economic conditions fell 0.8%. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index rose 1.6% to 146.3, the highest since January 2016 and well above its long-term average of 134.0.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Ratio of casual workers steady for 20 years

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 8 : 19-Jun-18

The Australian Industry Group’s analysis of official labour market data suggests that contrary to unions’ claims, the proportion of casual workers has remained steady at about 25 per cent of all employees since 1998. This is despite the fact that the number of casual employees rose from 1.7 million in August 1998 to 2.6 million in February 2018. Ai Group’s chief economist Julie Toth notes that there has been 53 per cent growth in the number of casual employees over this period, and 56 per cent growth in permanent employee numbers.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, ACTU, THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED

Jobless rate supertanker heads lower

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 15-Jun-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 12,000 jobs were created in May, although economists had forecast that the economy added 19,000 jobs. An additional 32,600 part-time jobs partially offset the loss of 20,600 full-time positions. The official unemployment rate fell by 0.2 per cent to 5.4 per cent, which is its lowest level since November 2012. Meanwhile, the underemployment rate rose by 0.1 per cent to 8.5 per cent and the proportion of people who are employed but looking for more work was steady at 13.9 per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, IFM INVESTORS PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF COMPANY DIRECTORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up across the board to 123.0

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Jun-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 5.6% to 123.0 in the week ended 10 June, following a 1.0% decline in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current financial conditions rose 3.9% to 109.1, partially reversing the cumulative 4.7% decline over the last two weeks. Consumers also remain optimistic about future financial conditions, which were up 1.6% on the back of a 3.3% rise in the previous week. Consumers’ views towards current economic conditions rose 8.9%, following two successive weekly declines. This sub-index is currently at its highest point in 18 weeks. Similarly, households’ views towards future economic conditions rose 8.7% to 118.0, the highest since November 2013. The "time to buy a household item" sub-index rose 5.7% to 144.0 and remains well above its long-term average of 134.0.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ