ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence up 2.3% to 117.9

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 2.3% to 117.9 in the week ended 25 February, partially recovering from the 3.5% fall the previous week. The details were broadly positive, with four out of five sub-indices posting gains. Views towards current economic conditions firmed 0.4% after sharp losses in the previous two weeks. While views toward current economic conditions have only stabilised after these falls, they remain above their-long term average. Consumers were more optimistic about future conditions, with this sub-index bouncing 6% and almost offsetting the 8.8% drop in the previous week. Views towards current finances jumped 6%, bringing the sub-index to a six-week high of 110.4. The recovery in sentiment around future conditions was more modest (1.5%), offsetting the 1.3% fall in the previous week.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Wages growth higher among public sector

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 4 : 22-Feb-18

The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ wage price index data shows that wages in the private sector rose by 1.9 per cent in 2017, compared with 2.4 per cent growth for public sector wages. The mining sector had the lowest growth in wages, at 1.4 per cent, while retail industry wages rose by just 1.6 per cent and wages in the healthcare sector increased by 2.7 per cent. There was 2.1 per cent growth in wages overall during the calendar year, including 0.6 per cent growth in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down again by 3.5% to 115.3

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-18

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 3.5% to 115.3 in the week ended 18 February, following a 2.6% decline in the previous week. For the second straight week all sub-indices posted declines, with sentiment around economic conditions dropping sharply. Views towards current economic conditions fell 5.5%, on the back of a 6% decline previously, bringing the sub-index to an eight-week low of 107.0. Similarly, perceptions of future economic conditions took an 8.8% dive to a 13-week low of 106.3. Views towards current and future conditions fell 1.6% and 1.3% respectively, following a 2.6% and 1.8% fall previously. That said, both indices remain above their long-term averages.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ABS data shows full-time employment down 50,000 in a month as part-time jobs surge – a real problem!

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Feb-18

Full-time employment fell nearly 50,000 in January according to the ABS employment figures released yesterday and confirm the longer-term trend revealed by the Roy Morgan January employment figures released a week ago. Increases in part-time employment which could mean working anywhere between 1-30 hours per week are driving employment growth at the expense of full-time jobs. As Roy Morgan first revealed last week: "The increase in employment over the past year was driven entirely by an increase in part-time employment which rose 156,000 to 4,191,000 while full-time employment fell 40,000 to 8,045,000".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Turns out Abbott was right about new jobs

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 9 : 15-Feb-18

The general consensus of economists is that the latest labour force data will show that about 15,000 jobs were created in January 2018. This would lift the number of jobs created since the September 2013 federal election to more than 971,000. Prior to the election, then Opposition leader Tony Abbott had committed to increasing the labour force by one million during the Coalition’s first five years in office. The Government is on track to deliver on this pre-election promise well within the five-year time-frame, after the economy added 400,000 jobs in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, BLOOMBERG LP

Low inflation, low unemployment, and Lowe restraint

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 9-Feb-18

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has indicated that an interest rate rise is now more likely than a rate cut. However, he says the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until inflation rises around the mid-point of its target range of 2-3 per cent and there is a further reduction in the unemployment rate. He has stressed that the Reserve Bank does not need to adjust monetary policy in line with other central banks. Lowe also says the Reserve Bank does not expect its inflation forecasts to be unduly affected by the recent sharemarket volatility.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Half of minimum wage workers are rich

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 8-Feb-18

An analysis of Household Income & Labour Dynamics in Australia data by the Melbourne Institute has concluded that 13 per cent of people on the minimum wage live in households that have the nation’s highest incomes. The analysis suggests that a large proportion people on the minimum wage are students in the 21-34 age group and in many instances live with their parents. The Melbourne Institute also concluded that just 21 per cent of workers live in households for which the minimum wage is the sole source of income.

CORPORATES
UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

2.59m Australians unemployed or under-employed in January

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Feb-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 1.219 million Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce) in January 2018, a decrease of 76,000 (down 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition, 1.371 million Australians (10.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 264,000 in a year. In total, 2.59 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in January. The figures also show that 12,236,000 Australians were employed in January – an increase of 116,000 over the past year. The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate of 5.5% for December 2017. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says jobs growth in calendar year 2017 was driven entirely by growth in part-time employment, which may partly explain why Australians do not believe that the monthly ABS unemployment estimates are accurate.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Perfect storm hits apartments market

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 2-Feb-18

Approvals for new homes, apartments and semi-detached dwellings have recorded their biggest monthly fall since July 2012. Approvals for apartments fell in all mainland states in December 2017, while approvals for new attached dwellings declined by 39 per cent. Developers have cited a number of reasons for the decline, including increased investor taxes and tightened consumer credit. However, ANZ economist Daniel Gradwell said the bank is not overly concerned by the figures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, EVOLVE DEVELOPMENT PTY LTD, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, COSTA FOX, URBAN TASKFORCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MASTER BUILDERS’ ASSOCIATION

Cynical voters struggle to believe official unemployment figures

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 2-Feb-18

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from 5.7 per cent to 5.5 per cent in 2017, but research by Roy Morgan shows that nearly 60 per cent of Australians think the jobless rate is much higher. The survey found that people in South Australia and Queensland in particular believe that their state’s real unemployment rate is significantly higher than official figures suggest. Roy Morgan estimates that the real unemployment rate is around 10 per cent, and executive director Gary Morgan says politicians, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the general public know that the official figures are "nonsense".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, SA BEST, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY